Report No. 99 / 2025
Report No. 99 / 2025
The following report focuses on the Middle Eastern policies of extra-regional actors and their transformation in changing conditions. It concentrates on studying the strategies pursued by Russia, the U.S., the EU, China and India in the Middle East. The report also examines how Middle Eastern countries perceive extra-regional actors as they aspire to build pragmatic and balanced relationships with external partners.
Extra-Regional Actors in the Middle East...
... with sanctions measures. However, conflating tariffs with sanctions would be premature; unlike trade policy tools, sanctions remain primarily instruments of foreign policy.
Andrey Kortunov:
Can U.S. New Tariffs Trigger Structural Changes in Global Economy?
One of the most consequential moves at the start of Donald Trump’s second term was the sweeping increase in US import tariffs. The new policy targeted nearly all trading partners, with additional duties imposed on over seventy countries. This ...
... and left a deep imprint on the national mentality. This heritage will undoubtedly stay with Russians in future, affecting their perceptions of themselves, the overall worldviews as well as many specific economic, social, military and other decisions.
Economy
Andrey Kortunov:
Is Global Icebreaker Race Imminent?
Today, the Arctic region houses less than 1.3% of Russia’s population, but it accounts for some 12–15% of the national GDP and for 25% of all the exports. One fifth of all Russia’s oil ...
... large-scale mobilization and relying on volunteers and contract soldiers. The ability to conduct a major and prolonged military operation with a professional, rather than conscript-based, army is a pivotal interim result.
The resilience of the Russian economy in the face of confrontation with the collective West is also noteworthy. Russia’s deep integration into the global economy, particularly its reliance on Western supply chains, financial institutions, and rules, posed significant risks in the ...
... difficult to compensate for these losses. While the diaspora abroad can serve as an asset – lobbying for pro-Ukrainian legislation, advocating for sanctions against Russia, and sending remittances – it cannot directly contribute to the country’s economy.
Human losses have been compounded by extensive damage to infrastructure, including industrial and material assets. Ongoing military activity has caused significant destruction, with reconstruction expected to require tens of billions of dollars....
Despite the efforts of Middle Eastern countries to enhance their influence in regional and international affairs, they continue to deal with issues that require external support
Becoming more evident in recent years, the latest events taking place in the Middle East may reinforce an awareness of the changing role of Middle Eastern states in international relations. Episodes such as U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about the Gaza Strip and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria have...
... Burkina Faso) and/or are still in search of their own foreign policy program (Guinea, CAR). Dialogue with them is therefore invariably difficult, as revolutionary romanticism, anti-colonial rhetoric and vague notions of the “commanding heights” of the economy are often on their agenda. In addition, major risks come from the activities of transnational criminal organizations, such as terrorist groups, drug cartels, and illegal arms and human trafficking networks.
Tatiana Denisova, Sergey Kostelyanets: ...
... which supports the Syrian Kurds, is crucial. Without oil, gas and food supplies from Kurdish-controlled areas, the authorities in Damascus will not be able to launch a full-scale sustainable reconstruction. Turkey alone cannot fill this gap, as its own economy is not able to provide Syria with the necessary assistance. Ankara can contribute if other actors (the Gulf states, Europe and the U.S.) pay for it. That said, international humanitarian and reconstruction efforts will be as crucial to the country ...
... opportunities in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing industries, tourism and renewable energy. The partnership aims to reduce tariffs, simplify customs procedures, protect investments and develop infrastructure that will help diversify Oman’s economy while boosting the industrial and agricultural potential of EAC nations.
In addition, enduring historical ties between Oman and East Africa, shaped by the centuries-long presence of the Omani diaspora in the region [
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], play an important role ...
Geopolitical turbulence, coupled with Afghanistan’s crucial geography, offers a high potential for this country to become a stage for a global conflict
For several decades, Afghanistan has been a source of threats and risks, including those of a terrorist and extremist nature, for the broader Central Eurasian region. That said, since the Taliban [
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] swept to power in August 2021, security in Afghanistan has significantly improved, a fact that is now almost universally recognized. Nevertheless...
