Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
... directly announced a set of restrictive measures that would be taken against Russia in the event of war. Apparently, another round of escalation is coming. In the near future, we can expect the development of the situation according to one of the following scenarios.
The first scenario is “War”. Russia in this scenario will proceed from several premises.
Igor Ivanov:
Is War Inevitable?
It is inevitable that amid peaceful conditions, Ukraine will pursue an anti-Russian course. An outwardly loose but ...
.... The region has received large-scale investments and the level of its development, according to several parameters, is higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under control. The economic cost of the war may be simply unacceptable due to qualitatively new sanctions, including bans on the purchase ...
Finding solution to some problems would actually be easier without Washington, since the U.S. is often part of the problem rather than part of the solution
The United States is often referred to as an “indispensable nation.” The term was first used in January 1997 by President Bill Clinton during his second inaugural address. Madeleine Albright would mention it in her speeches and writings on numerous occasions after that. The underlying idea of “indispensability” here is that it suggests it would...
RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report
RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report
2020 witnessed the peak of military tensions between the US and Iran since the conclusion of the tanker-war in 1987. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign and Iran’s resistance/retaliation policy have worked to generate collision points one after another. Despite both sides’...
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Executive Summary
— The report asesses the risks of sanctions against Russia over the year.
— By 2020, the use of sanctions against Russia had gained much more stability compared to previous years. The damage caused by the new restrictive measures can be considered limited. The key issue is whether the situation in the coming year will remain stable?
— Given the scale of the Russian economy, the current sanctions are unlikely to derail it. However...
... Economics (HSE) together with the World Economic Forum (WEF), Berkeley’s Center for Long-Term Cyber Security Futures hosted a roundtable "Cyber Security Futures 2025."
Berkeley’s Center for Long-Term Cyber Security has developed a
set of scenarios
that portray a landscape of ‘cybersecurity futures’ designed to stress and stretch trade-offs in objectives and values that will appear in the near future. The scenarios are not exclusively focused on cybersecurity issues themselves, but ...
... Various incidents were thoroughly and repeatedly verified and taken with much caution. We might dislike Ukraine-related EU sanctions but Brussels carefully avoided any escalation of sanctions for “promoting propaganda and undermining democracy,” an accusation that is hard to verify but easy to turn into a conflict-prone and provocative form. We might dislike Robert Mueller’s investigation and the very pretext for it but it was at least systematic and relatively transparent. It was hard to suspect ...
... sense that Moscow will experience another collapse similar to the one that took place in 1991, as not even the most quixotic crusaders against the “Russian threat” expect such a scenario to unfold. But rather in the sense that Washington will somehow ... ... large North Korea, but with its global capabilities and its permanent seat on the UN Security Council intact.
Either of these scenarios would be a nightmare for U.S. foreign and military policy. And it is difficult to say which one would be more dangerous ...
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
The Ukrainian crisis presents the most serious and dangerous challenge to European security since the collapse of Yugoslavia and the series of ethnic conflicts it gave rise ...
