Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
... powerful military neighbouring countries and achievement thereby of a consolidated position on the matter would have a greatly positive influence on the situation in Afghanistan. It is also important that Russia maintain good relations with all and China with most of Afghanistan's neighbouring countries. So, Moscow and Beijing can help other countries of the region align their interests.
Scenarios for the Geopolitical Situation Around Afghanistan to Evolvd & Security Threats for the Neighbouring Countries
Given the more positive scenario, the situation in Afghanistan will not affect its neighbours and the Taliban will be able to form ...
... that Paris was ready to be an example of a great power with a “responsible attitude” towards its international commitments.
Ivan Timofeev:
Unwanted Ally? Russia and the Future of the Anti-Terrorist Coalition
The Big Three – Russia, the US and China – resolutely rejected the ultimatum but this proposal quickly won the support of the vast majority of UN members. In response to the categorical rejection of any restrictions of their rights by the Big Three, the majority urged, in accordance ...
... significant hurdles in expanding military capacities due to budget limitations. As a result, in the long run the scales are going to definitely tip in favor of China.
Outcomes
While the conflict outcomes seem infinitely numerous, here are five basic scenarios.
China's defeat and ensuing bipolar confrontation
. A defeat would trigger an escalation of mass nationalism and harsher anti-Japanese and anti-American sentiments in China. Craving revenge, the Chinese would prepare for another war. The international ...
