... major regional conflict. The military operation of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the Gaza Strip was to be followed by fierce hostilities in the West Bank, then by a large-scale border clash between Israel and Lebanon, and, finally, by an Israeli–Iranian war, which had been looming on the political horizon for years and was literally just a step away, with the likely involvement of several key regional and global actors, including the United States.
Andrey Kortunov:
When “Iron Swords” Return ...
.... in various areas. The messianic plans of the Biden administration to create an “alliance of democracies” in the Middle East seem unfeasible, too. Understanding this would make it much easier for Russia and the major regional players – Egypt, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia – to make their constructive contribution to the solution of global problems.
... showing signs that is it changing. It would not be an overstatement to say that a lot of what is happening now would have been unthinkable just a couple of years ago.
The greatest of these changes is the China-mediated rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given that these countries are regional “centers of power”, their new and improved relations may help reduce regional tensions in certain countries like Yemen.
Another significant factor that is driving the shifts in Middle Eastern state alignments ...
... that each side tends to exaggerate the opponent’s capabilities and the level of threat emanated in times of confrontation, whereas misperceptions about the adversary almost inevitably provoke an arms race, raising the risk of preventive wars.
For Saudi Arabia, détente with Iran is a chance to refocus on its own development programs, channeling more resources into their implementation, given that this will largely determine the political future of the Kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The current ...
... took place.
Experts from Russia, the USA, a number of European countries, China, and India took part in the discussion. The discussion focused on the consequences of the implementation of the agreement on restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, reached through the mediation of China, in particular, possible progress in resolving civil conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon.
Other discussion points included the current political trends in Israel, the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian ...
... that have impeded the work of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the end to the boycott of Syria by some of them (UAE, Jordan, Bahrain), the establishment of normal interstate relations with Syria, the maintenance of hidden channels of communication between Saudi Arabia and Iran with the assistance of Arab partners, the growing role of the UAE, Egypt and Qatar as moderators of internal conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, and much more. Syria is almost central to this process. There is no consensus yet on Syria’s return ...
... North Africa took place.
High-level experts from Russia, the U.S., France, Great Britain, Germany, Sweden, China, and India took part in the discussion. The discussion focused on the attempts of the leadership of Iraq to mediate in negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as the potential impact of the change of power in Afghanistan on the balance of power in the region and the prospects for strengthening security in the Middle East.
Irina Zvyagelskaya, RIAC Member, Head of the Center for the Middle ...
... Affairs Council (RIAC)
Discussion points:
Causes for previous failures to build a regional security
Ways to facilitate talks in post-JCPOA era
Changes and role of Russian policy in the Persian Gulf
Biden administration policies and its influence on Saudi-Iranian talks. Impacts of Iran’s presidential elections on regional talks
Working language: English.
June 28, 2021, 15:00 GMT+3
The event will be streamed online via RIAC website, YouTube channel, and RIAC page on Facebook. Please, leave your questions ...
... and transport. Foreign military involvement in the civil war in Yemen, which has already resulted in a humanitarian disaster in the country, the political pressure on Qatar from a number of neighbouring Arab states and the never-ending tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia are just the most graphic illustrations of this dangerous situation [
1
]. In addition, many Gulf countries are becoming increasingly vulnerable to domestic social and political unrest due to increasing volatility in the global oil market ...
... resist the temptation to include new conditions for a “new” deal. This path of the United States can delay the process and create new problems, especially if the Americans take into account the views of their Middle Eastern allies, such as Israel or Saudi Arabia. The Iranian nuclear issue remains resolvable only when it is discussed outside the regional policy issues and with limited participation of international players. The 2015 deal was optimal in this regard, and the parties should be committed to the existing ...