... their bases, but the war alert along the Russo-Ukrainian border has passed. In fact, a war was never in the cards. Yet the alert, while it lasted, was profoundly disturbing. For the West, it highlighted the dangers of a large-scale direct clash between Russia and Ukraine. For Russia, which heretofore has dismissed the Donbas conflict as a civil war in Ukraine, it opened up the prospect of having to wage a real war against a large neighboring country. And for Ukraine, such a war might have been existential.
With ...
... spirit of
Carl Schmitt’s philosophy
nurtures the Polish aversion to Russia and the Russians and informs the meaning of ‘Polishness.’
This quaint version of xenophobia is associated with politically useful dark visions of the possibility of a Russian aggression and conquest (evoking the case of Ukraine in 2014), and are being skilfully inseminated in the minds of the public, which have lead to an increase of Russophobic sentiments and provided the government with
carte blanche
for (over)militarization of the country and urgent search for “hard” ...
... manoeuvres to put pressure on Russia. The main threat is the loss of control over the situation, should the symbolic whipping turn into a real conflict.
In the end, full-scale military operations in Donbass in the near future are not the baseline scenario. Russia is a strong adversary; the risk of big losses for Ukraine are great. Accordingly, it is hardly worth considering a scenario of a sharp tightening of sanctions against Russia. No radical aggravation—no radical sanctions.
At the same time, politics likes surprises. Erroneous assessments, the personal ...
... used force and made real progress. This motivates the people who think that military force can resolve a conflict. Moreover, Ukraine is carrying out defense cooperation with Turkey, so there may be hopes that the balance of forces will shift in Kyiv’s ... ... of the political leadership of the DNR and LNR. They say that [full-scale] war is, if not inevitable, than very likely—and Russia must intervene. The idea that the DNR and LNR should join Russia is gaining popularity once again. This is facilitated ...
... referendum at that time was the only convincing attempt to appeal to public opinion on the most important issue of the political life of a huge country. However, the results did not change anything — by December 8 of the same year, the leaders of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine decided to dissolve the USSR. The referendum itself became the beginning of the end of a unique state — an experiment in the vast expanses of Eurasia. By that time, the republican elites were already ready to take power and wealth into their ...
... Western narrative of a Ukraine wishing to join the European Union and NATO is not “yearned for throughout [that] country” (p. 18), but that Ukraine is deeply divided—on an East-West basis. He also writes that Putin’s initial proposal of an EU-Ukraine-Russia trade pact was ignored by EU politicians. Cohen further writes that the Maidan Square protests (aka ‘Euromaidan’) were under sway of hyper-nationalists and “semi-fascist street forces [such as the Svoboda Party]” (p. 16), a fact largely ...
_ Yuri Kofner, junior economist, MIWI – Institute for Market Integration and Economic Policy. Munich, 12 January 2021.One of the main causes of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014 was the contradictory views between various groups, both within Ukraine and abroad, regarding the country’s possible future geopolitical and geoeconomics trajectory towards either closer integration with Russia as part of the EurasEC customs union (from 01.01.2015 the Eurasian Economic Union, EAEU) or integration with Europe in the framework an Association Agreement and a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union.Effects ...
... partners and friends in the Eastern Mediterranean. The "Greek issue," compounded by Turkey's activity in Libya (which makes Moscow uneasy), could trigger a new crisis in Russia–Turkey relations.
Expansion of military-technical cooperation with Ukraine
. Russia and Turkey have always had fundamentally different views on Ukraine and Crimea, especially since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014. One way or another, Moscow has had to come to terms with the fact that Ankara does not recognize Crimea ...
... considered limited. The key issue is whether the situation in the coming year will remain stable?
— Given the scale of the Russian economy, the current sanctions are unlikely to derail it. However, sanctions can cause grave problems for individual companies ... ... and conflict in Donbass, the U.S. elections and the alleged meddling, the developments in the Middle East, etc.
— Regarding Ukraine, the crisis has noticeably stabilized. However, we should not expect any significant breakthroughs in terms of compliance ...
... of international cooperation in combating coronavirus and preventing humanitarian emergencies in armed conflict zones.
The participants assessed the consequences of the pandemic for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Eastern Ukraine, as well as the potential role of such organizations as WHO, OSCE, and ICRC in providing humanitarian assistance to the population in conflict zones. The meeting was attended by over a hundred experts, diplomats, journalists, and public figures....
