... powers involved. For Ukraine and several European states, however, the framing remains moralistic: a struggle of principles in which only a complete defeat of Russia is acceptable. Because that outcome is unrealistic, they seek time in the hope that Russia changes internally, or America changes politically.
Washington will not force Ukraine or Western Europe to accept the 28 points immediately. There is no full unity inside the White House, and this internal hesitation inevitably weakens the signal Moscow believes it has detected. Another round in this political cycle seems likely....
... Ukraine as the cradle of Russian civilization. Consequently, Russia must struggle to shape Kyiv’s political trajectory so that it reflects, at a minimum, a friendly orientation toward Moscow.
It is difficult, from a historical perspective, to separate Russia and Ukraine into two clearly distinct state entities, given the depth of their political, economic, cultural, religious, and ethnic interconnectedness—not to mention the fact that Russian statehood originated in Kyiv, and that for most of its history this ...
... their hegemony is becoming unsustainable, unprofitable, and liable to drag the U.S. into a world war. They have accordingly begun to partially withdraw. This was visible even before Trump’s second term, especially after the failure to quickly destroy Russia through the war in Ukraine (thereby eliminating it as China’s main
de facto
ally, and the rising World Majority’s strategic core). And after Washington began receiving Russian signals about possible nuclear escalation. The Americans may vacillate, perhaps quite dangerously,...
... feasible, potentially expanding from Ukrainian war theatre to a broader regional conflict, necessitating the abandonment of Cold War-era deterrence frameworks.
The inevitable losers in either nuclear or conventional escalation scenarios include: a) Ukraine as primary battleground; b) Russia facing sustained missile and other types of strikes and potential offensives; c) European NATO members, particularly on the eastern and north-eastern flanks who will be subjected to Russian counterstrikes and, under favourable to Russia conditions,...
... planning.
Compromise is no longer part of the game. What we’re seeing are not temporary crises but rolling conflicts. Eastern Europe and the Middle East are the two current flashpoints. A third has long been identified: East Asia, particularly Taiwan. Russia is directly engaged in Ukraine, holds stakes in the Middle East, and may become involved in the Pacific.
The war is no longer about occupation, but destabilization. The new strategy focuses on sowing internal disorder: economic sabotage, social unrest, and psychological attrition....
...
Some of this, admittedly, stems from a media environment that has grown dangerously overheated. Western news outlets now thrive on alarmism, churning out a steady stream of war talk and pushing politicians to match the rhetoric. Since the launch of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, media across the Atlantic and in Brussels have played the role of propagandist, not watchdog.
But the problem runs deeper than headlines. Europe’s political class has drifted into a world of abstraction, where politics has become an intellectual ...
Russia’s success in confronting the West on the Ukrainian issue has turned out to be, in many ways, connected with the support it received from the countries of the World Majority
Russia’s success in confronting the West on the Ukrainian issue has ...
... unpredictability, which makes him an unreliable negotiating and discussion partner.
But his unpredictability also presents an opportunity, because decisions are made quickly and initiatives are launched, such as the mediation of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Trump cares little about what other people think of him. If decisions turn out to be wrong, he reverses them without batting an eyelid. He wants to conquer the world stage through entrepreneurial, but also sometimes ruthless behavior—he does ...
... since the end of the Cold War – an order based on NATO’s unchecked expansion across Europe and Eurasia, without regard for Moscow’s objections. The military campaign thus became a way of exercising a
“veto”
that the West had long denied Russia. True demilitarization of Ukraine would, in effect, force international recognition of that veto. But many in the West remain unwilling to accept such a precedent.
As discussions have moved toward territorial issues, the central problem of military security seems to have been ...
Washington is ready to talk; Russia should write the script
The diplomatic process surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict has taken a cautious step forward. The recent agreements reached in Riyadh may not yet constitute a breakthrough, but they represent the most significant diplomatic achievement since the grain deal of summer 2022.
Skeptics will note that ...
