... United States. Chronic instability seems to have become the new Syrian norm. Getting used to this uncertain reality is perceived by many inside and outside Syria as something inevitable that will have to continue.
Whatever the security threats, the Syrian authorities, backed by Russia and Iran, are generally in control of the domestic political situation. Above all, real challenges to the regime’s foundations lie in the economy, which is sinking ever faster into a deep hole. The strangling effect of Western sanctions is on a rising trajectory....
... active opposition to the Turkish operation from the United States, which is cornered with optimizing its resources in the Middle East, as well as Ankara's position on accepting Finland and Sweden to NATO. However, if Turkey faces active opposition from Iran, Russia, and the United States, the operation may be postponed.
Kirill Semenov:
Istanbul Terrorist Attack: What Awaits Turkey and its Neighbors?
Syria considers any attacks on its territory a violation of national sovereignty. Turkey, in turn, refers back to the Sochi Memorandum of Understanding, signed in October 2019 to defend its considered actions. According to the Memorandum, Kurdish groups ...
... small projects. Some Gulf Arab states have signaled that they might be willing to support reconstruction, perhaps hoping to get Syria out of Iran’s orbit. But for now, they are hesitant to take the risk. For the same reason, Damascus’ other allies—Russia and Iran—which, however, have already done a lot to preserve the Syrian statehood, are constrained. Despite proposals to adjust and clarify the position of the U.S. and EU in terms of Damascus taking certain steps in exchange for the easing of the sanction regime, such efforts have never been made by either side.
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... be key in resolving the Syrian crisis. Economic reintegration may prove to be a catalyst for the peace process. This working paper presents a political economy model for the settlement of the situation in Syria. The author explores the positions of Russia, Iran and China in Syria and their points of interaction. Possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Syria are analysed in detail, as are the modalities of the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the configuration of external actors of the Syrian conflict.
Settling ...
... power and expanding its territorial control through concomitant diplomatic efforts.
Throughout the Syrian war, regularized military and political exchanges have served to strengthen the Russia-Iran relationship. With the changing military dynamics in Syria, Russia, Iran, and Turkey spearheaded the Astana Process as a parallel track to the UN mediation. Moscow’s diplomatic and military gains on the ground have also embroiled them in a broader regional geopolitical competition between the United States, Russia, ...
... framework of the sixth round of the project “A New Agenda for Russia–UK Relations”
On October 27, 2021, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) held a closed workshop on approaches of Russia and the UK in Iran and Syria. The workshop was organized within the framework of the sixth round of the project “A New Agenda for Russia–UK Relations”.
The goals of the meeting were to discuss the interests of Russia and UK in the Middle East, and to search for convergence ...
... comply. As for trade, Russian companies are already active in the South Caucasus and can expand their businesses into Turkey and Iran with time.
Iran: Bolstering the Islamic Republic’s Balancing Act
With or without resolving their strategic dilemma in Syria that was earlier explained, the future of the Russian-Iranian relations seems bright, but it mustn’t be overhyped due to the difficulties that Moscow might face in making significant economic inroads in the real-sector of Tehran’s economy given Beijing’s newfound role. Russia should work more closely ...
... This outcome will help balance regional affairs if successfully managed.
Iran: Friendly Great Power Balancing
This country is a “frenemy” just like Turkey, with similarly complicated relations with Russia. Bilaterally, the ties are excellent, but Iran seriously distrusts Russia in Syria despite their waging anti-terrorist struggle side-by-side there because they cooperate for different ends. Russia bombed terrorists to help Syria liberate more territory prior to the January 2017 Astana peace process which mostly froze the lines ...
... that the US is capable of significantly increasing its military presence in Syria at any given moment and within a short span of time puts it in a position of being a potential spoiler of any military or political/diplomatic initiative or deal that Russia, Iran, the Syrian government or Turkey may undertake. Besides, recent
reports
indicate that the US is constructing a new military base with airfield facilities near al-Omar oil field in Deir ez-Zor. Its runways are 2.5 km-long, which allows it to host heavy military ...
... Middle East. Both Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran regard each other as necessary components of the regional architecture that they envision for the Middle East. The paper attempts to shed light on the views of Moscow and Tehran on these issues.
Russia and Iran in Syria and Beyond: Challenges Ahead
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