... future of the world order against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the aggravation of the U.S.-China relations. Bipolar, multipolar and other models of international relations were considered, as well as the prospects for resuming Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. In addition, the participants discussed scenarios for possible escalation of the conflict on the territory of Ukraine and ways to prevent it. The discussion was moderated by Sergey Rogov, Academic Director of RAS Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies (ISKRAN), RIAC Member. Alexei Gromyko,...
... to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation each of them.
Restoration, reformation, revolution? Scenarios of the world order after the Russian–Ukrainian conflict
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The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another ...
In 2008, four paths were available to Russia but in 2022, one prevails
A Retrospective Introduction
In 2008–2012 we published results of a long-term research project on the alternative scenarios of Russia’s future in several publications including ‘
On Russia: Perspectives from the Engelsberg Seminar 2008
’ from the Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation. The project purported to make two major steps: first, to generate scenarios themselves ...
... directly announced a set of restrictive measures that would be taken against Russia in the event of war. Apparently, another round of escalation is coming. In the near future, we can expect the development of the situation according to one of the following scenarios.
The first scenario is “War”. Russia in this scenario will proceed from several premises.
Igor Ivanov:
Is War Inevitable?
It is inevitable that amid peaceful conditions, Ukraine will pursue an anti-Russian course. An outwardly loose but sufficiently stable political regime has been ...
... higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under ... ... The economic cost of the war may be simply unacceptable due to qualitatively new sanctions, including bans on the purchase of Russian oil. But Russia is more likely to benefit from the very possibility of such a scenario. It can serve as a signal to the ...
The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?
Concern is growing
in the Western media
over Russian military activity in the southwestern theatre. There are opinions ...
... implications not only of the implementation of the European Green Deal, but indeed also of climate change itself. This provides the sides with new starting points for cooperation.
Igor Ivanov:
International Relations Amid the Pandemic
Coming back to the EUREN scenarios, Russia and the EU currently seem to be nowhere near even embarking on a path towards “Cold Partnership”. For the time being the EUREN experts are proven right in their pessimism: at the end of our scenario exercise they were convinced that the EU ...
... Turkmenistan with Turkmen.
Development Scenarios for the Situation in Afghanistan
The multitude of factors that could affect the situation in Afghanistan make any forecasting a challenge. As for the domestic political situation, there are two likely scenarios, which could be called “A Strong Taliban” and “A Weak Taliban”. Both could have positive and negative implications for Russia, China and other regional powers as well as the global community at large.
Scenario 1. “A Strong Taliban.”
Most Russian experts view this scenario as most plausible. It envisages representatives of the Taliban to create a relatively effective ...
... deconfliction mechanisms, and international actors’ difficulties in establishing rapid conflict prevention measures provides US-Iran tensions a potential to easily evolve into a military engagement. What would be the implications of such a scenario for Russia? Will the fallout of a US-Iran war in the Middle East push Russia to rush in with a more active mediation effort? Or will Russia prefer to erode US power projection through military assistance to Iran?
This paper attempts to explore the cost-benefit ...
