In 2008, four paths were available to Russia but in 2022, one prevails
A Retrospective Introduction
In 2008–2012 we published results of a long-term research project on the alternative scenarios of Russia’s future in several publications including ‘
On Russia: Perspectives from the Engelsberg Seminar 2008
’ from the Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation. The project purported to make two major steps: first, to generate scenarios ...
... science of international relations can be thought of as political economy under conditions of anarchy.
Ivan Timofeev:
War Between Russia and Ukraine: A Basic Scenario?
In this case, the question arises: what are the modern “currency” or “currencies” ... ... higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under ...
The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?
Concern is growing
in the Western media
over Russian military activity in the southwestern theatre. There are opinions ...
Russia and the EU currently seem to be nowhere near even embarking on a path towards “Cold Partnership”. The EU and Russia ... ... Foreign Policy (EUREN), a group of 40 eminent experts from different places in Russia and 14 EU member states,
published
four scenarios for the future of EU-Russia relations: A “Cold Partnership” in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately ...
... deconfliction mechanisms, and international actors’ difficulties in establishing rapid conflict prevention measures provides US-Iran tensions a potential to easily evolve into a military engagement. What would be the implications of such a scenario for Russia? Will the fallout of a US-Iran war in the Middle East push Russia to rush in with a more active mediation effort? Or will Russia prefer to erode US power projection through military assistance to Iran?
This paper attempts to explore the cost-benefit ...
EUREN Report 2
EUREN
Report 2
EUREN members believe that the EU and Russia will not be able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the coming decade. But the two sides can come to a pragmatic ... ... Europe. This is the main finding of the EUREN scenario-building process, conducted between February and September 2020. Four scenarios were developed:
1. A "
Cold Partnership
" in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return ...
...
Nearly five years have passed since the start of the dramatic events of the Maidan in Kiev that engendered a profound crisis in Russia’s relations with both Ukraine and the West. This is not a short period of time: World War I lasted a little over four ... ... analysed against a pan-European or even global background.
Given the great diversity of these factors, a matrix of possible scenarios of Russia–Ukraine relations may be constructed along two axes. The first axis reflects the possible evolution of Ukrainian ...
... countries.
Alexey Gromyko, RIAC member and Director of the RAS Institute of Europe, and Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, took part in the work of the Dahrendorf Symposium and addressed the meeting.
Programme
European Union in the World 2025 – Scenarios for External Relations
