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Andrew Korybko:
The Geostrategic Challenges of Russia’s “Ummah Pivot”
Russian Interests
North Africa: Becoming the Libyan Power Broker
In North Africa, Libya is the scene of intense competition between Turkey on the one hand and Russia, Egypt, the UAE, and France on the other. Russia must therefore seek a compromise solution that prevents either side from becoming dominant, with Russia playing the kingmaker role if possible (perhaps through a mix of creative diplomacy, energy partnerships ...
... determined, shaped most powerfully by the ultimate outcome of the Libyan civil war. It is possible that the country remains de facto internally partitioned between Haftar’s East and Tripoli’s West, thus dividing it into spheres of influence between Turkey on one side and Egypt, the UAE, France, and perhaps also Russia on the other.
Moscow’s most immediate goal is to improve its international soft power standing by remaining a balanced player in this situation, though with an eye on obtaining economic dividends with ...
... a “bloc-based” approach to developing the fields and transporting gas; there are long- standing conflicts (the Cyprus question, the Palestinian question); there are no diplomatic contacts between individual regional actors (for instance, between Turkey and Egypt, between Turkey and Syria); all these factors exacerbate mistrust and undermine regional security. The Eastern Mediterranean states are committed to resolving economic interaction issues through dialogue provided there are one or more independent ...
... big war is not beneficial to anyone; therefore, most likely, the parties will continue to confront each other with non-military methods.
Table 1. Source:
https://arabic.cnn.com/middle-east/article/2020/01/02/weapons-explainer-turkey-vs-egypt-ranking
Egypt
Turkey
Soldiers (thousands)
440
355
Tanks (thousands)
2,16
3,2
Armored vehicles (thousands)
5,735
9,5
Aviation, including:
1 092
1 067
Fighters
211
207
Stormtroopers
340
207
Attack helicopters
46
94
Warships, including:
320
194
Aircraft carriers
2
Corvettes
...
... Declaration” have forced it to switch to a policy of direct threats against Ankara and Tripoli. Nevertheless, we should take into account the fact that the only thing holding up the frontlines in Sirte and Jufra is the mutual understanding between Russia and Turkey, and not the ultimatums made by Egypt after the GNA had suspended its offensive. Consequently, no matter what moves Cairo makes from here on in, Russia and Turkey are most likely to hold the keys to resolving the Libyan problem, and their efforts will apparently result in freezing the ...
... impedes the fight against the virus. Solving the problems caused by the epidemic seems less important to the top military-political circles of the warring parties than a war with each other. All this can contribute to the spread of coronavirus infection.
Egypt and Turkey, perhaps the main players on the Libyan chessboard, are not interested in further escalating the conflict. In July 2020, Ethiopia plans to begin filling the reservoir of the Hidase hydropower plant, regardless of whether Cairo, Khartoum and Addis ...
... Turkish leadership in Libya protects not only the pro-Turkish GNA, but also its interests in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea.
Anna Manafova:
Is the Eastern Mediterranean a New Competitor for Russia on the European Gas Markets?
So Why Does Egypt Support Khalifa Haftar?
In Libya, Turkey is confronted with the interests of its foreign policy opponents; in particular, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Arab Republic of Egypt (ARE). The latter is the main ally of General Khalifa Haftar. Cairo supports the LNA, because members ...
... choosing to support Khalifa Haftar, especially after all his failures, are very slim. On the contrary, it is entirely possible that their involvement in operations against the LNA will increase against the backdrop of increased military assistance from Turkey (including for groups that are part of the Tripoli Defence Forces).
Khalifa Haftar fully, and erroneously, expected that military support from his external allies (Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and France) would help his forces overcome the enemy’s resistance. While the LNA could count on the direct participation of the Egyptian special forces (as well as on the operational air force of Egypt ...
... United States now is a major player in the region.
Russia in the region
An important trend in 2016 is that Russia has managed to expand significantly the circle of its partners in the Middle East. We can note the high level of cooperation of Russia with Egypt, Israel, new partners in the Gulf, such as Bahrain, some progress in relations with Qatar, cooperation with Saudi Arabia in the energy sector, particularly in oil production, and, of course, the normalization of relations with Turkey, including the beginning of cooperation between Moscow and Ankara on the Syrian crisis, which is completely new and unexpected trend. In fact, by the end of the year, Turkey has replaced the United States as a Russian partner on the Syrian crisis ...
... Abdel Fattah el-Sisi government that replaced the Muslim Brotherhood, which Ankara supported. Both Cairo and Tel Aviv are annoyed by Turkey’s loyalty to the pro-Iranian Hamas organization. One would hope that for the sake of economic benefit, Egypt, Turkey and Israel would make concessions on these issues. But the Muslim Brotherhood is also supported by Qatar, and Egypt depends on generous aid from Saudi Arabia. In view of the ongoing covert war over influence in the region, relations within this ...
