... difficult political choice China has faced. To clarify, what I mean by this is that China has specific political options for dealing with Moscow in difficult situations, rather than new strategic goals regarding overall China-Russia relations.
Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China is being subjected to unprecedented political pressure from the US regarding its relations with Russia. Such pressure is different from its previous policy of “driving a wedge” between China and Russia, which the US conducted prior to the Russia–Ukraine ...
It’s perhaps hard to believe now but – only eight years ago – Russia was a full member of the former G8. Since then, there have been dramatic changes
... ... Moscow could straddle the divide between the West and the non-West. Following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, the G8 reverted to its previous G7 format; in the wake of the Russian... ... technologically and militarily.
Even before the outbreak of the
“hybrid war,”
China had overtaken Germany not only as Russia’s principal trading partner, but also...
... financial and military resources being drawn toward supporting Ukraine.
The conflict has demonstrated that the West is not able to
impose sanctions
on a major economy without damaging its own stability. The war has also shown the effectiveness of the Russian nuclear deterrent, making even a limited Western intervention unthinkable.
China will be the main beneficiary of the Ukraine crisis. But this is not reflected in China’s
political rhetoric
which has been carefully calculated to avoid any major fallout with the European Union and other developed countries, while also maintaining close cooperation with Russia.
The ...
... are being put to the test. The outcome will have repercussions that go far beyond Europe
The military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is not an ethnic conflict: ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians are fighting on both sides of the frontline. And radical ... ... Triumph for Ukraine might lead to a tamed and domesticated Russia. A quiet Russia would allow the West to cope more easily with China, which would be the only major obstacle to liberal hegemony and the long-awaited “end of history”.
If the conflict results ...
Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive ...
... Kremlin both under Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin. He is still considered close to Russia’s president and foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. His recent proposals on Russian-speaking... ... Foreign and Defense Policy, was first to come out publicly about an all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2019.
President Putin has mentioned on Feb. 24 that Ukraine’s accession... ... existential war».
Sanctions are getting tighter. Will Russia become more dependent on China?
«There is no question about that: we will be more integrated and more dependent...
... then to wheel around and focus on China.
For the present, the West hopes to de-link China from Russia, not so much strategically but tactically, but if it is obtained, that tactical advantage would enable it to prevail over Russia strategically in the Ukraine theatre and over both Russia and China—the Eurasian core states—grand strategically: globally and historically.
For the West, the battle for Ukraine has become the battle for Russia. The battle for Russia is only the first phase of the battle against China. It is not a mere battle—it ...
... question of the balance of losses and gains of key participants, as well as global players. Such a balance has yet to be struck for Russia and Ukraine. Hostilities continue and a political settlement has not been reached, which means that it is still difficult to say to ... ... and in terms of enormous damage to the economy. The contours of the balance for global and regional players—the EU, the US, China, Japan, Iran and others are more clearly visible.
The European Union bears the most serious losses and costs. They are associated ...
... galvanizing the West under its hegemonic influence
Experts are scrambling to explain why the U.S. prioritized containing Russia over China despite most prior indicators very strongly suggesting that it would prioritize the second scenario. U.S. President Joe ... ... so, few anywhere in the world predicted the sequence of events that would be set into motion at the end of last month wherein Russia commenced its special military operation in Ukraine.
Andrey Kortunov:
The end of diplomacy? Seven Glimpses of the New Normal
Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated ...
... operation” in Ukraine. This level of coordination gives Kremlin the justified confidence that “the World is big” and no sanctions can tip Russia. We already see the contours of the West deeply humiliated and Russia succeeding with it objectives in Ukraine. Like Russia in Europe, China has during the past decades built up the necessary power to act in East Asia, and the decision to resolve the Taiwan issue in a very foreseeable future is undoubtedly already made in Beijing. That will deal the final devastating blow to the fiction ...
