Russia's Hand to the USA and Why Biden Should Take It

What does the USA need that only Russia can provide?

Reuters © Alexander Natruskin

Nixon and Reagan were the hardest anti-Communists. They both had political backing in their "Hinterland". Nixon used this to open to China, while Reagan used it to open to Russia. Biden could do the same.

Do Biden and Putin "like" each other? Perhaps yes, perhaps not so much. But they are both professional, and as professionals they may come to like and respect each other once they see mutual advantages of working together. Russia has long been seeking this. So the question is: Why should Biden open a new chapter with Russia.

Because there is a lot in it for the West. There has to be a carrot for the USA, sticks and shouting won't help. Also, as in Reagan's case we saw too, that the realization that Russia was not an "empire of evil" and that Communists are human too, against expectations came to play a paramount role. Biden might even come to a similar conclusion, if a dialogue starts. Look at the Reagan-Gorbatchov top-meeting on Iceland as an image how this went. Look at Nixon's visit to Mao in Beijing as another image. Imagine this - a Biden visit to Moscow-St.Petersburg with lots of television on positive culture around. Biden could win as a statesman - that is what he needs with the USA, and with Europe too.

The problem is not what to do, but how to start and bring it all together into a comprehensive perspective interesting enough for the Americans. Who knows, perhaps a few things must have to irritate them a few times before they understand that this is all invitations to start talking.

But something must be dangled by Russia in front of the US nose - all the time. Saying to the US interlocutors: Hey look, here is an opportunity. And here is one opportunity more.Here is even a third one. And we might tie things together into one or two-three packages, if you like. And the cost for you, dear Americans, will be only minimal, mostly symbolic, to start a dialogue

This way, Russia will build her own luck - together with Biden and the USA.

Nixon and Reagan were the hardest anti-Communists. They both had political backing in their "Hinterland". Nixon used this to open to China, while Reagan used it to open to Russia. Biden could do the same. Do Biden and Putin "like" each other? Perhaps yes, perhaps not so much. But they are both professional, and as professionals they may come to like and respect each other once they see mutual advantages of working together. Russia has long been seeking this. So the question is: Why should Biden open a new chapter with Russia.

Because there is a lot in it for the West. There has to be a carrot for the USA, sticks and shouting won't help. Also, as in Reagan's case we saw too, that the realization that Russia was not an "empire of evil" and that Communists are human too, against expectations came to play a paramount role. Biden might even come to a similar conclusion, if a dialogue starts. Look at the Reagan-Gorbatchov top-meeting on Iceland as an image how this went. Look at Nixon's visit to Mao in Beijing as another image. Imagine this - a Biden visit to Moscow-St.Petersburg with lots of television on positive culture around. Biden could win as a statesman - that is what he needs with the USA, and with Europe too.

So we need a perspective - a road to a new deal - between the USA and Russia.

The question then becomes: What could such a perspective look like? What kind of proposal(s) might be contained - how to introduce it; in one piece or as a series of stepwise initiatives? What kind of deals would then be struck? Which brings us to: What does the USA need, which Russia and actually ONLY Russia in the whole world can supply to the USA?

Europe

Peace in Europe. A settlement for the Baltics and White Russia. De-escalate and make military caps on units inside the Baltics states and upto 20 km from the border into Pskov military district and White Russia. Integrate Kaliningrad as an economic dynamo with Germany, as a Baltic Sea trade and production Special Economic Zone - a new hub. Reduce corruption if it gets in the way.

West Balkans. Bosnia-Herzegovina is still unsettled - I know that from a personal academic contact I write with on the issues of Nationalism. Russia with Serb contacts might also here play a role which could be helpful for the USA and the EU. This PROVIDED, of course, that a rapprochement to Russia happens. I believe that old Russian contacts with Albania must be revived too. Albania I see as a potential melting-pot for the West-Russia-China-Turkey-Christianity-Islam-Secularism. An Albanian diplomat told me that Italy is very active with Albania, and that Albania sees Italy as a great friend. Russia has good contacts with Italy too - and again Serbia plays a role for Albanian-Serb politics in Kosovo.

A settlement for the Ukraine. Let Russia accept a deal to a plebiscite in the Crimea - let them vote again on Crimea, if the West wants to. They will stay Russian. The same with East-Ukraine - let them vote.

The Middle East

Peace in the Middle East - USA-Israel cannot control Turkey-Iran-Russia-Syria - but perhaps only with Russia can the USA strike a deal which is balanced for all parties.

Iran - Turkey are both troublesome for the USA. No matter what the USA does, the USA cannot use these two against Russia. But a Russia-friendly US policy could help to contain certain issues pertaining to the perifery around Iran and Turkey - like Libya and of course Syria and the Kurds. Also in weapons deals, Russia is an important partner for both of these two. Russia will not give up that position, but again, Russia can play it hard or soft depending on the mutual understanding with the USA.

China

China. The USA cannot keep pace with China. In 15 years China will be the world's biggest economic power, and rival the USA as a military power. China will in such short time dominate all around her except India, Russia, South Korea, and Japan. Even Taiwan, perhaps. Taiwan is SO important for China - I understand why China will never ever give up on Taiwan. We need a SAR solution for Taiwan - not what SAR has become for Hong-Kong, but what SAR was SUPPOSED to have been for Hong-Kong before Chinese politics in Hong-Kong started to tighten. Russia would be an ideal "honest broker" in such talks China-Taiwan-USA.

The USA will want to contain China - that is the fall-back strategy of the USA as the USA steadily loses ground all around China including Taiwan. Trump's trade war on China was not a trade-war, but simply a war. A war by economic means to stall China. The US trade-war will not succeed, especially not now with Biden. The USA cannot even moderately contain China without Russia. Russia needs China, and Russia is not interested in "containing" China. But Russia may still play strongly or softly against USA efforts to contain China.The USA simply needs Russia.

Energy

Also in the energy game does the USA need Russia as a partner. Energy to China. Energy to Japan-Korea. Energy to EU and Germany. Energy to Iran and Turkey. Energy to Africa. Energy of all sorts - gas and nuclear included. Russia will have to gear up on two fronts: Wind-energy and bio-fuels, that is synthetic fuels (liquid gasoline, kerosene and gas) made from CO2 neutral wind and nuclear energy. This way, combustion engines on land, sea and air will have extended their lifetime into the green climate neutral era.

Russia has all the know how - and because the West is too slow here, Russia may become a first-mover in one of the world's soon-to-be biggest energy-markets, the market for these so called E-fuels.

Africa

E-fuels are very important to Africa. Africa needs green aviation kerosene (sustainable air fuel - E-fuel), because nothing can substitute a fast growing need for aviation in Africa, and Africa with weak electricity networks will also need green gasoline E-fuels too for remote transports for the next 50 years or so.

Sahel is becoming a disaster. Actually the Sahel is already a bigger disaster than Afghanistan. The EU is more active here, but France's 5,000 troops in Sahel are nothing but a drop in the un-Pacific Ocean. The EU friends of the USA need EVERY help they can get to find a long-term positive track on Sahel. This is totally missing today - there is not even a perspective of such from Western sides. Russia is a necessary partner - with training, arms, surveillance - everything but regular military brigades. Use Frogfoot, the Hind, and Russia military vehicles (get some air conditioning in there!). Russia is also indispensable with big specialty trucks for conquering vast areas of rugged and even muddy or sandy African terrain, sometimes desert, sometimes with lots of forest, without roads and with enormous distances between service facilities which often will have a deficit of highly educated mechanics. Look also to the Congo DR, South Sudan, CAR and Burundi here. Russia has the top-of-world expertise for commercial vehicle mobility in Africa's hard and sometimes sparse conditions. But first of all, Africa needs to unite to clean up her own problems. I have suggested a reorganization of African regional communities to tighten this up and increase efficiency, and Russia on this diplomatic level with the African Union and other African regional and national centers of power has a large role to play. The West needs Russia to be on the same page as themselves in Africa. Not on the West's page, but on a new common AFRICAN page.

The Arctic

Make a deal in the Arctic. This means foremost friendship with Greenland as a soon-to-be independent state. Second, it means that the USA may have to learn that the USA cannot control everything unilaterally over everybody else. That may be a difficult pedagogic road. Because we do not want to escalate, the Americans must know that any Russia Arctic movements - be it diplomatic, economic and whatever - are not deeply offensive, but just ways to sensitivize the USA to bring dialogue into a new more open perspective. Keep a tighter dialogue with the EU - especially the Nordic, Germany, France and Italy - but also on the UK on this Arctic development. Make sure that Greenland always sees the Russia fleet and airforce as a friend.

Russia build her own luck

There are lots of things to work on to get Putin-Biden closer to each other. I have just scratched the surface here. The problem is not what to do, but how to start and bring it all together into a comprehensive perspective interesting enough for the Americans. Who knows, perhaps a few things must have to irritate them a few times before they understand that this is all invitations to start talking.

But something must be dangled by Russia in front of the US nose - all the time. Saying to the US interlocutors: Hey look, here is an opportunity. And here is one opportunity more.Here is even a third one. And we might tie things together into one or two-three packages, if you like. And the cost for you, dear Americans, will be only minimal, mostly symbolic, to start a dialogue

This way, Russia will build her own luck - together with Biden and the USA.