Political Wind from the East: Migration Сrisis Charpens Party Struggles in France
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PhD in History, Research Fellow with the Crisis Society Study Centre
The reality in France today is that the migration crisis is clearly putting the ultra-right National Front in the lead. In France the parties potentially capable of forming a centre and checking the consequences of the migration crisis, are weakened by internal struggles and rivalry with one another. The refugee problem exacerbates the divisions within the major political movements of the left and right and their further drift away from each other. This creates a vacuum the National Front seeks to fill.
The powerful wave of migration from the Middle East and North Africa that is sweeping the Old World is making a serious impact on the measured pace of political life in the European states. In Germany Chancellor Merkel is openly challenged by members of her own party over her proclaimed open door policy with regard to migrants. Budapest and Zagreb are on the brink of a diplomatic scandal having failed to agree on the direction of the migration flow. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is sharply critical of the German Government and says that Europe is unprepared for a new “migration of peoples.” All this is accompanied by the renewed discussion on the future of the Schengen agreement and the European Union.
Amid this turmoil, the situation in France merits particular attention. French political life is traditionally diverse, vibrant and perceptive of external impulses. European events, be it debates on the EU Constitution or another expansion of European institutions, invariably trigger stormy discussions among the main political parties in Paris. The migration crisis too was a catalyst for a strong socio-political reaction.
The French political pendulum is clearly shifting to the right.
The need to react to the migration flow from the East has split France. Opinion polls show that society is divided about equally between those who oppose the open door policy (55%) and those who are in favour (44%). Other states which have been affected by the current refugee crisis have similar ratios, but in France it arose against the background of serious internal conflicts which may change the country’s political landscape in the near future. The French political pendulum is clearly shifting to the right. The Socialist Party (PSF) which controls the Parliament, Government and the Elysee Palace is living through hard times. Its approval rating is falling and the presidential candidates – the incumbent President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls – would lose in the first round of the elections. Electoral setbacks come thick and fast. After the success in 2012 French Socialism is clearly running out of steam, partly because it has failed to get rid of its past afflictions: the gap between the party doctrine and the present-day challenges, fierce factional struggle and lack of political leadership.
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That is why the migration situation came as an unwelcome surprise for the party whose leaders are both at the head of the country. The new electoral cycle is not far away: the spring and summer of 2017 will see “grand” elections of the President and Parliament. The Socialists’ chances are thought to be low while the decision on whether France should admit thousands of refugees from the East could further tilt the balance of forces: recent opinion polls have revealed that 34 % of the French people are worried about migration more than about the state of the economy (30 %). This accounts for the initially guarded position of the leadership on the migration crisis. Prime Minister Valls referred to it as a common European problem and spoke of the need to strengthen the French borders.
For the Socialists it is essential not to play into the hands of the National Front of Marie le Pen which has long been scoring electoral points on the migration problem. However, they lack the political resources to challenge the right on the same turf. A refusal to receive refugees would not just cause serious differences with the EU’s leader – Germany – but also provoke another storm in the ranks of the already enfeebled PSF which traditionally is pro-migration. “Politicians are too afraid that their actions would boost the popularity of the National Front. But we contribute to the rise of the extreme right in refusing to uphold our convictions,” said the socialist Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo. In this Zugzwang situation the Socialists decided to head up the movement that they had proved powerless to stop. On 8 September 2015 they staged a mass rally in Paris in support of migrants seeking to get the maximum mileage out of the widely discussed problem. PSF leaders declared that in supporting migrants the party was returning to the value-based policy and called for a broad coalition of political forces prepared to move in this direction. “The issue of receiving refugees, said the First Secretary of the PSF Jean-Christophe Cambadelis, is not only about the relations between left and right. It is above all the rallying point for all humanist forces.”
After the success in 2012 French Socialism is clearly running out of steam, partly because it has failed to get rid of its past afflictions: the gap between the party doctrine and the present-day challenges, fierce factional struggle and lack of political leadership.
The antipode of “humanist forces” is, of course, the National Front. Its leadership, headed by Marie le Pen, is aware that the party is riding the crest of a political wave. Her anti-migrant speech delivered in late August of 2015 follows the classical traditions of the French ultra-right who have been forgotten in recent years. “Immigration has got out of control in France,” said the National Front leader. “Under Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande everything was done for the immigration wave to rise and quickly spread over the country... Power in France no longer belongs to the French people. It has been undermined by a series of crises it cannot cope with.” The National Front is dead on target. Its leaders see the vulnerable position the Socialists have taken and they see similar weaknesses in their main opponent on the right flank of the French political spectrum.
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The Republicans, led by the former President Nicolas Sarkozy, are perhaps in an even more difficult position than the Socialists. The right-wing party is expected to renounce the open-door policy as 68 % of its electorate is against admitting refugees from the East. However, the Republicans find it hard to take such a stand for political reasons because in that case they would inevitably be in tow of the more aggressive tough-talking National Front. Besides, the French right would not feel comfortable expressing views opposing those of the European leaders for whom they are at pains to show their respect, notably the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, the Republicans cannot openly advocate the decision to admit migrants largely because that measure would not go down well with their core electorate which in that case would totally succumb to the National Front rhetoric.
The result is disarray in the camp of Sarkozy supporters. The ex-President, who has clearly set his sights on returning to the Elysee Palace in 2017, is trying to steer a middle course. On the one hand, he opposes the idea of country quotas for receiving refugees and the signing of Schengen-2. But on the other hand he proposes to introduce a new temporary migrant status of a “war refugee” which would legitimize the entry of migrants into France. At the same time Sarkozy’s fellow party members and simultaneously his rivals criticize his “no peace, no war” tactics. Francois Fillon and Alain Juppe sympathise with the open door policy and lament the fact that the Republicans cannot make up their mind on the issue. Whether this has more to do with settling of political scores or real conviction is hard to say, but the lack of unity in the right-wing camp is evident and may well spoil its electoral chances.
The reality in France today is that the migration crisis is clearly putting the ultra-right National Front in the lead.
The reality in France today is that the migration crisis is clearly putting the ultra-right National Front in the lead. In Germany, where public discontent with the inflow of migrants is also considerable (though not as strong as in France) the powerful political centre representing the grand coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD is preventing these sentiments from spilling into the political sphere and destabilising it. In France the parties potentially capable of forming a centre and checking the consequences of the migration crisis, are weakened by internal struggles and rivalry with one another. The refugee problem exacerbates the divisions within the major political movements of the left and right and their further drift away from each other. This creates a vacuum the National Front seeks to fill. Time will tell to what extent it will succeed in doing so. Elections for the French regional councils are due in December 2015.
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