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Ilshat Saetov

PhD in Political Science, research fellow at Centre for the Study of Middle East of Institute of Oriental Studies of RAS

Whose idea was it to shoot the plane down? Decisions on military operations are taken by a narrow circle of people. Most probably Recep Erdogan himself gave the order. This is borne out by his own remarks, the statement by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and the fact that NATO ambassadors were convened for a meeting. It is less likely, but still possible, that the Chief of the General Staff seized the initiative and persuaded the Turkish President to rectify the country’s pro-Western course, which at times has been wobbly. At the same time, if the General Staff acted without the President’s consent, then it was a demonstration of its political muscle.

The incident with the downed Russian plane on the border between Syria and Turkey on November 24, 2015 became a massive talking point all around the world. However, the event did not come as much of a surprise for specialists. Anything can be expected from the authorities of a country that has been astonishing the world with its antics over the past several years.

The ruling Turkish party, which has no qualms about blackmailing its own people with terror in order to achieve electoral success, is hardly the best of partners. With its connivance, Turkey has long turned into a staging post for providing arms and manpower to all sorts of groups on in Syria and Turkey. It is laundering hundreds of billions of dollars of Iranian money (including through Russia) and is allowing ISIS to sell oil through smugglers. It would be strange to expect understanding from a country that passed a law making it legal to import all currencies into Turkey and which covers half its budget deficit through smuggled cash of unknown origin. And yet many experts only recently argued vehemently that this is the best deal Turkey can offer Russia.

These actions were aimed at improving relations with the West by bringing its positions closer to those of NATO and undermining relations with Russia.

REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Ilshat Saetov:
From Electorate to Caliphate

The legal niceties of the incident with the downed are of interest mainly for legal scholars. Russia says the plane did not violate Turkish airspace. The Turkish military has shown a map indicating that the plane did stray into Turkey, but only for 5–10 seconds. All this is immaterial, because no one shoots down planes under such circumstances. Turkey itself constantly violates the airspace of Greece, Iraq and Syria. And the country’s leaders have repeatedly said that this was normal and there was nothing to worry about. The plane was obviously shot down deliberately. There are many signs of that, in addition to the very fact that the plane was shot down by a country that had declared itself to be a friend of Russia only the day before yesterday. For example, two journalists from the government news agency Anadolu Agency just happened to be walking on the border with professional equipment in their hands — one was carrying a camera and the other had a video camera. And the fact that the General Staff of the Republic of Turkey promptly confirmed the involvement of the Turkish Air Force in shooting down the Russian plane. The initial Russian reaction was very diplomatic, leaving a lot of room for manoeuvre — the Turkish side could have tried to put the blame on the Syrian rebels or just say it was an accident and apologized. However, the Turkish authorities declared in no uncertain terms that their armed forces had shot the plane down. Thereafter, Vladimir Putin and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation issued tough statements.

The initial Russian reaction was very diplomatic, leaving a lot of room for manoeuvre — the Turkish side could have tried to put the blame on the Syrian rebels or just say it was an accident and apologized.

Apparently, these actions were aimed at improving relations with the West by bringing its positions closer to those of NATO and undermining relations with Russia. It also wanted to send a signal to Russia that fighting in Syria is unsafe and that it would be well-advised to not act there on its own. There is no doubt that the event was timed for the visit of Sergey Lavrov on November 25, 2015. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation was due to fly to Turkey on November 24, so the plane almost had to make a U-turn over Sochi. As for Turkmen, the existence of whom Russia learned only after the event, Recep Erdogan has never really been interested in them. The rhetoric about them was designed solely to attract the nationalist electorate.

Whose idea was it to shoot the plane down? Decisions on military operations are taken by a narrow circle of people. Most probably Recep Erdogan himself gave the order. This is borne out by his own remarks, the statement by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and the fact that NATO ambassadors were convened for a meeting. It is less likely, but still possible, that the Chief of the General Staff seized the initiative and persuaded the Turkish President to rectify the country’s pro-Western course, which at times has been wobbly. At the same time, if the General Staff acted without the President’s consent, then it was a demonstration of its political muscle. 

Reuters
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Russia and Turkey: Bound Forever

Incidentally, many have forgotten about the operations of Ergenekon, a “parallel state” formed by the Turkish military, intelligence, judges, professors, etc. It would appear that after releasing all those who were involved in the corruption scandals, Recep Erdogan concluded a temporary truce with that influential group, which has close links with the army. It may sound something like this: “If you don’t touch me and my people, and if you publish data on corruption, then I won’t touch you, and I will fight the Muslim communities you do not like.” It is well known that Eregenekon, the Turkish equivalent of the Italian Operation Gladio and similar organizations, was created by NATO to counteract the USSR. After the USSR collapsed, they switched to fighting Islamism in Turkey and were even plotting to topple Erdogan. Perhaps now, after the truce, NATO is using the group inside the country for other purposes.

The U.S. Greater Middle East project, for example, assigns a big role to Kurdistan in various forms. If tensions arise in the region (a downed plane is a clear signal of that), then NATO troops can go in and create a Kurdish corridor along the Turkey–Syria border, with access to the sea on one side and the Iraq–Iran border on the other. After the Islamic State is deprived of its oil provinces and refineries (or is destroyed altogether), the proposed state could be the West’s most loyal ally. The new entity would also serve as a buffer between Turkey and the rest of the Sunni world and keep Turkey’s relations with its Kurdish community, which accounts for 20 per cent of the country’s population, strained. And of course, it would create a direct threat for Iran, where there are more than 5 million Kurds.

If tensions arise in the region (a downed plane is a clear signal of that), then NATO troops can go in and create a Kurdish corridor along the Turkey–Syria border, with access to the sea on one side and the Iraq–Iran border on the other.

It cannot be ruled out that the decision to shoot down the Russian plane has at least something to do with the Erdogan’s psychological makeup. We often seek rational reasons for political actions, where they can also be prompted by emotions, grudges, psychological complexes, the desire to assert oneself, megalomania, etc. What is more, analysing all this is an ungrateful and unpromising task.

Be that as it may, Russia should understand the kind of politicians it is dealing with in Turkey and how it ought to react. A tit-for-tat response is probably not an option, as Sergey Lavrov’s call for Russian people not to go on holiday to Turkey and his statement that Russia was not going to fight Turkey prove. At the same time, Russia should not toughen its confrontation with the West over the incident because no one stands anything to gain from it. This is not the time to make emotional decisions.

 

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