The Bear, the Swan and the Crouching Dragon
The bedrock of Russia’s strategic air capability
is the Tu-95MS bomber (NATO classification:
the Bear)
(no votes) |
(0 votes) |
Research Fellow at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations under the Russian Academy of Sciences, RIAC expert
Russia is the only country in the world (with the exception of the USA) to have its own strategic air force capable of launching nuclear and conventional strikes on an intercontinental scale. This largely Soviet legacy is now entering a phase of updating. Meanwhile China is making increasingly loud claims about its own ambitions.
Russian and Chinese Strategic Aviation about to be Updated
(Part I. US Strategic Aviation about to be Updated. Democracy delivered worldwide)
Russia is the only country in the world (with the exception of the USA) to have its own strategic air force capable of launching nuclear and conventional strikes on an intercontinental scale. This largely Soviet legacy is now entering a phase of updating. Meanwhile China is making increasingly loud claims about its own ambitions.
At the beginning of the 1930s the USSR possessed one of the world’s most impressive fleets of heavy bombers. In the new surge of development before and during the Second World War, however, it did not manage to create a successful aircraft. During the war the American “Flying Fortress” bombers showed their destructive power, and the nuclear bombings were a more than effective demonstration of the new weapon, which at that time could only be delivered by aircraft.
In order to rapidly make up the gap between the USSR and the USA it was necessary to resort to “piracy”, i.e. to copy the American B-29 Superfortress. An opportunity arose: in 1944, four B-29s that had been damaged during raids on Japan made it as far as the Soviet Union. At that time the Soviet Union was neutral in the Pacific War [1], so the crews and their planes were interned [2]. In May 1945 the country’s leadership decided to copy the American bomber. In the summer three of the B-29s that were in good condition were flown to Moscow. It should be noted that the USSR tried to acquire the B-29s from the USA legally, but was refused.
Tu-4, Central Air Force Museum, Monino
In order to rapidly make up the gap between the USSR and the USA it was necessary to resort to “piracy”, i.e. to copy the American B-29 Superfortress.
In August 1947 the first Soviet-built planes were demonstrated in a fly-past at Tushino, and the Soviet nuclear shield was really created on 18 October 1951, when an RDS-3 bomb was dropped from a Tu-4A on the Semipalatinsk testing ground. The USSR went on to create its own intercontinental strategic bombers – the turbo-prop Tu-95 and the jet-powered M-4 and 3M. In addition to strategic bombers, the country produced an enormous quantity of long-range bombers – planes in the Tu-16 and Tu-22 families. Apart from striking targets in Western Europe, these were tasked with attacking major ocean-going surface-ship targets. The strategic bombers in turn were designed for long-range nuclear strikes.
In response to the Americans’ development of a new bomber (the future B-1) and small-scale cruise missiles, in 1967 the USSR officially began work on a new strategic intercontinental bomber. In 1972 the Myasishchev M-18 was judged the best design, but the Tupolev design department was commissioned to create an aircraft on the basis of the M-18 because of its greater experience and industrial capacity, and also because of some very powerful lobbying. A modification of the tried and tested Tu-95 was also created in parallel with the development of the new aircraft, in order to provide insurance and more rapid delivery of a carrier for the new cruise missiles. The Tu-95MS made its first flight in 1979, and it was brought into service in 1983. The prototype Tu-160 had its first flight in 1981. It will officially enter service not in the USSR, but already in the Russian Federation.
The Bear and the Swan
Myasishev 3M Bomber
Thanks to its long service and its frequent contacts with foreign countries’ air forces, the Tu-95 is one of the best-known Russian planes.
The Russian Air Force’s strategic aircraft are under the control of the Long Range Aviation Command, which was set up in 2009 on the basis of the 37th Air Army of the High Supreme Command [3]. All strategic and long-range bombers come under this command.
The bedrock of Russia’s strategic air capability is the Tu-95MS bomber (NATO classification: the Bear). Thanks to its long service and its frequent contacts with foreign countries’ air forces, the Tu-95 is one of the best-known Russian planes. Contrary to widespread misapprehensions, in bomber terms the planes currently in service are of recent construction: serial production of the Tu-95MS ran from 1981 to 1992. Thus they are 20–30 years younger than the American B-52Hs and “peers” of the B-1B.
The turbo-prop engines, which lend the plane an archaic appearance, are what give it its long-range capability. Tu-95MS aircraft regularly come to the attention of the international media – the Bears are predominantly involved in long-range flights to foreign shores. In 2010 two bombers completed a flight lasting about 43 hours. First they approached the northern Atlantic coast of Canada, then they returned to Russian shores, flew along the Northern Sea Route, reached Alaska, turned south towards Japan and landed in the Far East.
Tu-22M3
The main weapon carried by the Tu-95MS is the Kh-55 family of cruise missiles, primarily Kh-55 and Kh-55SM nuclear missiles (with enhanced range). As a minimum, however, some of them have been adapted to use the version equipped with a non-nuclear warhead – the Kh-555. Up to 6 missiles can be installed in a drum launcher in the fuselage. Some of the planes were equipped at the manufacturing stage with underwing units to carry a further 10 missiles, but these were later removed at the time of nuclear arms reduction. The maximum range of the Kh-55SM is estimated at 3,500 km, i.e. significantly more than that of the American AGM-86M, which is fitted to the B-52H (by various reports, between 2,400 and 2,800 km).
In the second half of the 1980s the Soviet Union began work on a replacement for the Kh-55 with greater range and a reduced radar signature. This programme, unlike many others, survived the collapse of the USSR. The new Kh-101 missile began testing at the end of the 1990s. Low-volume production, as normally reckoned, began in 2002. Unlike the Kh-55, the Kh-101 was initially developed in versions fitted with a non-nuclear warhead (the Kh-101 itself) and with a nuclear warhead (the Kh-102). The missile’s range in mixed-profile flight is estimated at 5,000–5,500 km, which enables it to strike targets deep inside the enemy’s territory without threat to the launch platform. In addition, the missile has increased viability because of its reduced signature [4].
Modernised Tu-95MS bombers, frequently identified as Tu-95MSMs, are equipped with Kh-101/102 missiles [5]. The Tu-95MSM is fitted with four new underwing mounts, each carrying two missiles.
It is not easy to estimate the number of combat-ready Tu-95MS planes in the Russian air force. There are probably still 64 planes, but it is not possible using open sources to know how many of them are in storage, how many are undergoing modernisation, how many are involved in trials of various systems, and how many are combat-ready. There are estimates of something like 30 in full service. During the modernisation the planes’ service life is extended, they are fitted with new avionics, and their capacity for using conventional weapons is expanded. Modernised Tu-95MSMs will remain in service, it seems, until at least the 2030s. It is not clear how many planes it is planned to modernise now. Previously announced figures ranged from 20 to 35.
While having been built as a response to the B-1, it was able to become what the American bomber was intended to be, i.e. a supersonic strategic missile-carrier. The B-1 itself went into production as a cheaper and much simplified version – a transonic.
The pride and “shop window” [6] of Russian strategic aviation is the supersonic Tu-160 (NATO classification: Blackjack, but widely known in Russia as the White Swan). Interestingly, while having been built as a response to the B-1, it was able to become what the American bomber was intended to be, i.e. a supersonic strategic missile-carrier. The B-1 itself went into production as a cheaper and much simplified version – a transonic [7] plane whose equipment did not include strategic cruise missiles and which needed to have an additional fuel tank fitted in the weapons bays in order to undertake intercontinental flights.
Tu-95MSM with Kh-101 dummy missiles
In comparison with the Tu-95MS the Tu-160 is a significantly more powerful attack weapon. Its two internal weapons bays can accommodate two drum launchers for missiles of the Kh-55 family, with a total complement of 12 missiles. The Tu-160 can fly slightly farther than the Tu-95MS, and at the same time has the capability to launch a missile into the highest release line of any bomber in service today. The cost of this, however, comes in its dimensions and price: the Tu-160 is the heaviest warplane in the history of aircraft construction.
Thirty-six (or 34 by other reports) of the planned 100 planes (to counterbalance the 100 B-1Bs) were built, including prototypes and airframes for trials. At the same time the Tu-160 has suffered heavy “non-combat losses”. The first unit to begin re-equipment was the 184th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment, based at Priluki. After the collapse of the USSR the bombers (19 in all, almost all standard models at the time) were taken over by independent Ukraine. In 1999 Russia was able to save just eight of them from destruction under the American Nunn-Lugar programme to offset debts for gas. A few more planes in production were completed, the last of them in 2008.
Engels Air Force Base
By various estimates the Long Range Aviation Command currently has between 14 and 16 Tu-160 bombers. Another five aircraft have trials status; their condition is unknown and their future service unclear.
By various estimates the Long Range Aviation Command currently has between 14 and 16 Tu-160 bombers. Another five aircraft have trials status; their condition is unknown and their future service unclear. A programme is underway to modernise all the available Tu-160 long-range aircraft and to extend their service life. The modernised Tu-160Ms are being equipped with longer-life engines and updated avionics, and their range of weapons is being significantly expanded. The Tu-160M is gaining the capability to use Kh-555 missiles and also new missiles of the Kh-101 family, glide bombs and free-fall bombs. It can be confidently stated that the Tu-160M will remain in service until at least the end of the 2030s.
In addition to strategic bombers, the Long Range Aviation Command has Tu-22M3 long-range bombers. These bombers’ ability to strike strategic targets is severely limited by their lack of an inflight refuelling system – the price of a deal with the United States not to include them as strategic offensive weapons in international agreements. Unlike the Tu-95 and the Tu-160, the Tu-22M3, as is customary for Russian long-range bombers, is in large measure designed to attack major surface targets at sea and is more adapted to local conflicts. It is not capable of making intercontinental flights. But it has enough capability to reach virtually any point in Eurasia (especially with new cruise missiles). The Kh-32 heavy anti-ship missile is being specially developed for it, and this will also have specifically “land” versions, as before. In addition the possibility of modernised Tu-22M3s being equipped with missiles of the Kh-101 family in the future cannot be ruled out.
Tu-95MS and U.S. Air Force F-22A
It is extremely difficult to estimate the size of the Tu-22M3 fleet precisely, because of the large number of planes (more than 200) inherited by Russia from the USSR and the woeful condition of the majority of them. According to experts’ estimates, about 40 planes are combat-ready and another 100 are held in reserve (with the possibility of being brought into airworthy condition). Modernisation is underway to create the Tu-22M3M version, and a contract has been signed for work to be done on 30 planes.
The role played by strategic aviation in Russia’s policy is virtually the opposite to that of the Americans. The main difference is its precise specialisation in the deterrent nuclear function. Russian and Soviet strategic bombers have never been used in local wars. Moreover, the non-modernised Tu-95MS and Tu-160 are virtually incapable of using conventional weapons. Despite the fact that the emphasis in current modernisation programmes is on acquiring and expanding the possibilities of their being used in conventional conflicts, they still remain primarily an element of the nuclear triad. Their use in local conflicts can only be assumed if there were a combination of many factors – the sudden need to project power a long way from our borders, in another part of the world, and at the same time access to its airspace.
Tu-160
The role played by strategic aviation in Russia’s policy is virtually the opposite to that of the Americans. The main difference is its precise specialisation in the deterrent nuclear function.
Russian bombers regularly replace the ailing fleet with regard to “showing the flag”. Even leaving aside such a sensational action as the Tu-160’s flight to Venezuela, Tu-95s and Tu-160s regularly undertake long flights which periodically bring them to the borders of countries which are sensitive about such things. There are also “coincidences”, for example, a group of two Tu-95MSs, two MiG-31 interceptors and two refuelling planes approached the Canadian coast on the day the president of Ukraine was to speak in Canada’s parliament. American bombers also periodically take part in high-profile acts [8], but in the USA it is still the fleet that is mainly used for showing the flag.
The unknown beast
Until recently the future of strategic aviation in Russia was fairly clear: major overhaul and modernisation of the existing planes, a new bomber in the first half of the 2020s, built by Tupolev under the PAK DA (Future Aviation Complex for Long Range Aviation) programme and designed to replace the Tu-95MS and the Tu-160 [9].
During 2015, however, the situation has changed significantly. In July Deputy Defence Minister Yuri Borisov described plans to resume serial production of the modernised Tu-160 from 2023. The aircraft will be equipped with new engines giving it longer range, its avionics will be updated, and its range of weapons expanded. It is planned to produce at least three aircraft per year. Earlier Viktor Bondarev, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force, had expressed the opinion that the optimal procurement quantity would be at least 50 aircraft.
It is not clear what the reason for the delay with PAK DA is. According to recent statements the first flight will be after 2023. If we make a realistic assessment of the time required for trials, we should not expect it to be deployed to combat units before the beginning of the 2030s. Economic considerations may come to mind, but savings look rather doubtful in the context of serial production of the Tu-160M2 starting in parallel with construction of the PAK DA.
The more likely explanation is either technical problems encountered during the design of the PAK DA, or even more likely, a realistic assessment of the timeframe, which in its original version looked rather overconfident [10]. In that case the Tu-160M2 could play the role that was assigned to the Tu-95MS in the 1980s.
H-6M People’s Liberation Army Air Force (China)
Changes to the concept can also not be ruled out. As of now little is known about the PAK DA, nor about its American counterpart, the LRS-B, except that it too will probably be a low-signature subsonic plane using the flying wing design. Earlier plans could be reviewed, however. The delay could be due to the fact that the PAK DA is to be made more “complex” – for example, a high-speed aircraft capable of supersonic speeds without afterburners.
At the same the hypothesis of building a mutually complementary fleet consisting of fast heavy Tu-160M2s designed for nuclear missile strikes and low-signature PAK DA planes, more geared towards local conflicts, looks very attractive. In that case delaying the PAK DA in order to set up production of the Tu-160M2 could be explained by the country’s nuclear forces’ traditional priority of strategic aviation before conventional forces.
H-6K
In lieu of a postscript
China’s ambitions can also not be disregarded. At one time it got its long-range aircraft from the USSR. In 1953, 25 Tu-4 bombers were transferred to the PRC, and in 1957 it obtained a licence for the Tu-16. The rapid deterioration of relations made it significantly more difficult for China to begin production of a copy under the model name H-6. On 14 May 1965 one of these planes dropped its first nuclear bomb – China had become a nuclear power. Up to now the H-6 has been the only aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons over a significant distance. China did not succeed in building a bomber of its own.
H-6K, The 2015 China Victory Day parade
The aircraft has been repeatedly modernised, and in its latest version – the H-6K – it is a modern delivery platform for cruise missiles, including nuclear DH-10 missiles, which are believed to be based on the Kh-55. Despite new avionics equipment, engines and weapons, they are not managing to convert the Tu-16 into a fully-fledged strategic bomber – it lacks the range [11]. Nevertheless, its radius of operation, which is estimated as 3,000 km, together with the range of its missiles (about 2,000 km), enables it to reach virtually any point in Asia, as well as some of the American naval bases in the Pacific Ocean [12].
Of course, no matter how much you modernise a 1950s long-range bomber you won’t get a modern strategic bomber. China understands this, and it is also ambitious: a Chinese-developed future strategic bomber is periodically demonstrated in the form of leaks on the Internet and mock-ups at aviation displays. However, with all due respect for the capability of the Chinese aerospace industry, which has not tired of surprising the expert community over the last decade, it is difficult to believe that the new aircraft will begin to be delivered to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force in less than 20 years’ time.
1. The Neutrality Pact between the USSR and Japan was abrogated by the Soviet side on 5 April 1945.
2. The aircrew were quickly released (in the guise of escape).
3. The creation of a single body to control long-range and strategic aviation and its abolition, and the creation of an army structure directly subordinate to the commander-in-chief of the air force, happened many times in the history of the USSR. The last time a Long Range Aviation Command was set up was in 1988. The question of restoring its former army status is currently under consideration (http://lenta.ru/news/2015/03/02/air_army/).
4. In particular, an opto-electronic flight correction system is used instead of a radio altimeter.
5. The index number Tu-95MSM, like the later Tu-160M and Tu-22M3M, is a collective number for bombers that have undergone overhaul and modernisation and includes aircraft with various levels of modification.
6. An example of the “representative” function is the 2015 Victory Parade, the airborne component of which was opened by a Tu-160 under the personal control of Colonel-General Viktor Bondarev, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Forces.
7. A transonic plane is one with a maximum speed slightly in excess of the speed of sound (up 1.2 to 1.3 times the speed of sound). For aerodynamic reasons flight in this range of speeds is not efficient. Consequently, in practice such planes are subsonic, but capable of slightly exceeding the speed of sound if required.
8. For example, in June during the BALTOPS-2015 exercises two B-52Hs which had been transferred to Britain carried out a mine-laying exercise in the Baltic Sea.
9. It is not quite right to refer to the PAK DA as a direct replacement for the Tu-22M3. The niche occupied by the Tu-22M3 will be filled jointly “from above” by the PAK DA and “from below” by the Su-34.
10. In December 2013 the commander of Far East Aviation stated that the PAK DA would begin trials in 2019 and would be delivered to the air force from 2025 (http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20131223/985854551.html).
11. Attempts to increase the flying range are impeded by the fact that the missiles are mounted under the wing (the Tu-16 fuselage does not permit a drum launcher to be installed inside), and by all accounts by the lack of an inflight refuelling system. The second shortcoming will possibly be resolved in the foreseeable future.
12. The American media are having characteristic arguments about whether a bomber from mainland China could hit Hawaii.
(no votes) |
(0 votes) |
