The Future of Trans-Atlantic Relations Is Guesswork

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections came as a surprise to many. European politicians have openly expressed concern about the uncertain future of trans-Atlantic relations. The Russian International Affairs Council reached out to Vladislav Belov, RIAC expert and Director of the Centre for German Studies to ask how Trump’s election as U.S. president will affect relations between the EU and U.S.

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections came as a surprise to many. European politicians have openly expressed concern about the uncertain future of trans-Atlantic relations. The Russian International Affairs Council reached out to Vladislav Belov, RIAC expert and Director of the Centre for German Studies to ask how Trump’s election as U.S. president will affect relations between the EU and U.S.

The European political establishment proved to be unprepared for the outcome of the U.S. election. The stakes were put on Hillary Clinton winning. The situation is largely reminiscent of the attitude towards the referendum on the UK’s exit from the EU (“Brexit is impossible”). Nobody took Trump seriously or thought ahead about potential scenarios in the event of his victory. Moreover, many leading politicians made openly insulting and impolite statements with regard to Trump both during the presidential campaign (for example, German Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier) and even afterwards (Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Sigmar Gabriel).

But the state of shock that was felt on 9 November 2016 passed rather quickly and was replaced by uncertainty among European politicians due to the unpredictability surrounding future relations with the new president and with the U.S.

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
Igor Istomin:
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Nevertheless, while congratulating Trump on his victory, European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker outlined the main desired aspects of existing cooperation with the U.S. in combating major challenges such as ISIS, immigration, preserving Ukraine’s territorial integrity and climate change. Energy and military security along with the trans-Atlantic trade and investment partnership were mentioned as areas in which the strategic partnership and long-term cooperation must be continued. As we can see, there are all rather general statements without any specifics.

Areas of cooperation with the U.S. as part of NATO, particularly on the eastern flank, in the context of the Iranian nuclear programme and opposing China’s foreign economic expansion, are unclear now. Issues surrounding the coordination of a policy concerning Russia, including with respect to sanctions, remain in the shadows. The forecasts for the future of trans-Atlantic relations are more akin to guesswork. It is obvious that many of the often populist pre-election statements made by Trump will be revised.

REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
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Some European politicians believe that the U.S. role in global politics will change under the new president and that the EU will have to take on more foreign policy responsibility, including that in the defence sector. Among other things, this means inevitable growth in national military spending.

This topic among other issues will likely be addressed during current President Barack Obama’s visit to Berlin on 16 November 2016. This would suggest that Germany – and, accordingly, Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel prior to elections to the Bundestag – will be playing the leading role in establishing the trans-Atlantic vector in the EU policy. At present, she and her circle are proceeding from the assumption that EU-U.S. and German-U.S. relations will become more complicated in many respects.

German Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier has insisted that Trump and his future administration should formulate their foreign policy goals and objectives as soon as possible. This would enable the German government to determine its stance with respect to the U.S. Steinmeier believes numerous foreign policy questions in Trump’s campaign speeches remain unanswered. Even Henry Kissinger, with whom Steinmeier has been in frequent contact recently, remains in the dark just like other American foreign policy gurus. As the German minister for foreign affairs put it, they are “milling around in the dark”.

Nevertheless, I will venture a guess that the fundamental nature of trans-Atlantic relations will remain the same and that the EU and U.S. will manage to reach a consensus on most issues in the medium-term.