... rock-bottom, the parties can try to go for negotiations. It is at this point when international mediators come to the table.
Scenarios
Arab-Muslim states are currently choosing between self-preservation and populist self-preservation. Arab regimes like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt see HAMAS as a threat. For years, the power of these states has been directed against the Muslim Brotherhood (banned in Russia), with which Hamas originally associated itself. This helps Israel pursue its strategy, which at this ...
... and operational capabilities in the region, Washington is now less and less willing to get involved in regional issues. This logically leads to the inevitably growing autonomy and activity of regional states. First of all, this concerns Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Washington’s traditional partners in the region are now pursuing a more autonomous policy as compared to that of 8-10 years ago, promoting their national interests, diversifying their portfolios of partnerships and hedging their risks.
All this ...
... that have impeded the work of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the end to the boycott of Syria by some of them (UAE, Jordan, Bahrain), the establishment of normal interstate relations with Syria, the maintenance of hidden channels of communication between Saudi Arabia and Iran with the assistance of Arab partners, the growing role of the UAE, Egypt and Qatar as moderators of internal conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, and much more. Syria is almost central to this process. There is no consensus yet on Syria’s return to the Arab League, but there is some movement in this direction. The ...
... (the UAE, Oman, and Bahrain) and the opponents (Qatar and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia) with Kuwait maneuvering between them. This division correlates with the existing intra-Gulf competition for influence, namely, between Saudi Arabia–Qatar and Saudi Arabia–the UAE.
This table also shows the UAE’s leadership in the process of
détente
with Syria.
Name of the country/name of the track
High-level political contacts
Diplomatic relations
Coordination on security issues
Trade and investments
Bahrain
Rare contacts ...
... has also significantly increased its peace-making efforts in recent years, with the Emirates brokering negotiations between Pakistan and India that resulted in their declaration that they would respect the 2003 cease-fire accord. Earlier in 2018 the UAE together with Saudi Arabia played a key role in mediating the 2018 peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia. In 2020 Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed played a key role in the attainment of the Abraham accords between Israel and several Arab states....
... represented by the IRP and the STC.
Yet, if we take a closer look, these seemingly positive trends are moving in opposite directions and could ultimately generate new clashes. If we compare the two documents, the RA that was signed under the auspices of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2019 but has not so far been implemented, and the JD that has not yet been signed, we will see that they have radically different goals. The RA is intended to bring back to Aden the IRP’s offices that had been pushed out by the STC in August ...
... parties. And this will likely strengthen Qatari position in the region in 2020.
UAE and KSA
Any military intervention in the Gulf, if any, will not probably start before 2020 due to the many international events and meetings in the GCC countries. The UAE will host the World Expo in 2020, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will host the G20 in Al Khobar at Aramco’s compound which it considers as an important playground to promote for itself and its modernisation in the framework of its 2030 Vision it is implementing with much effort. The year 2020 also marks ...
... the Salaphites being a prominent group among them. The Salaphites are relatively well organized and have extensive ties with southern tribes. Additionally, they share a common enemy with the United Arab Emirates: the al-Islah Islamic party on which Saudi Arabia relies.
In the summer of 2019, the United Arab Emirates began to pointedly reduce its military presence in Yemen. The south was transferred to the control of the pro-UAE STC. This allowed the United Arab Emirates to solve several problems with one move: first, it reduced tensions in the country’s relations with Iran, which finances the Houthis; and second, it relieved the United Arab Emirates of its responsibility ...
... of NATO, also have a facility in Bahrain. Bahrain is also the most tolerant and open country in the region. Kuwait is another example of quite close partnership with the EU and the new delegation to Kuwait is an indication of their relationship. The UAE too is allied to nearly all EU states.
Saudi Arabia accused Qatar of supporting terrorism. In your opinion, are these claims grounded? How do you assess the efforts taken by the Qatari government to counter terrorism financing?
Andrey Kortunov:
The Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden
Qatar ...
How to ensure security and freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf?
In recent weeks, the world’s attention has been riveted on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. On May 12, four tankers owned by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were attacked by unknown forces when entering the Strait off the coast of Fujairah. On June 13, this time near the Iranian coast, two more tankers flying the flags of the Marshall Islands and Panama were attacked....
