... aggravate in the country, mainly in Tripoli, unless an agreement is reached among militant groups in addition to Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, the USA and Russia. The impeachment process of US President Donald Trump and the US role in the MENA region would determine the future of conflicts in many countries starting from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and the future government in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, Turkey and Iran. It is also expected that many MENA capitals ...
....
Egypt
:
(a) Economic reforms succeed. The country evolves in a liberal direction.
(b) The Muslim Brotherhood comes to power as a relatively pragmatic force.
Jordan follows a path similar to that of Egypt.
Bahrain ends the kingdom after protests.
Qatar
continues as hitherto.
Israel
, Gaza and the
West Bank
continue their existing increase in tensions (as described above).
Yemen
continues to be war-torn. Kuwait, the UAE and Oman continue their current path.
The North
Iran
will in all cases continue with the basic structure of its existing political system. But whether the system hardens or develops in a more open direction will widely depend on exterior conditions....
... regional hegemon is claimed jointly by Saudi Arabia and UAE, with Saudis providing most of the “hard” power, while Emirati contributing its political ideology and strategic vision. Even if we put aside moral and legal deficiencies of this model, both Yemen and Qatar cases question the mere feasibility of a “regional uni-polarity”: neither Saudi Arabia nor UAE seem to be capable of successfully “managing” arguably much less powerful regional players. On the contrary, political divisions in the region are getting deeper and prospects for a regional reconciliation are becoming more and more remote.
Another ...