... loss was not just eco-nomic, but has also implicated political sovereignty: any country which loses control over its sources of return loses political power and influence internally, regionally and internationally.
After Jordan closed its border with Syria, Jordan faced a real threat with the rising unemployment rate and international pressure on the government and the people to accept new terms and conditions to harbor refugees from Iraq, Syria, Palestine, and other countries. This huge demographic bomb ...
... “toxic” to the rest of the world. Diversification away from oil stops, and the country mostly deals in “arms and oil”.
Egypt
(a) Becomes ever more oppressive. Attempts to invigorate the economy fail. Terrorism.
(b) War in Egypt (like Libya + Syria).
Jordan
follows a similar path to Egypt.
Bahrain
continues as it is today.
“
Black Swans
”:
Qatar
may experience an invasion from Saudi Arabia, resulting in a more oppressive system.
Iraq
in the North, may, but this is more uncertain, also experience ...
... 2011 when
7,000 to 10,000 protesters took to the streets
to denounce corruption of state institutions, rising unemployment rates, and to demand political change.
Not just a sand castle
U.S. Department of State
A close-up view of the Za'atri camp in Jordan for
Syrian refugees as seen on July 18, 2013
Despite Jordan’s significant potential for fragility, the state and the regime have remained essentially unchallenged for three main reasons: the loyalty of the tribes, the religious and tribal legitimacy ...
