The deal may pause Syria-Israel tensions, but core issues like Golan, sovereignty and trust are still missing
As attention in the Middle East continues to gravitate toward unfolding crises in Gaza and the broader Arab-Israeli landscape, a less visible yet potentially consequential ...
... “jihadist opposition” to the authorities that has emerged in Syria could have some impact on national stability, given that the government still does not control all territory or hold a monopoly on weapons/violence. As mentioned earlier, the hypothetical Syrian–Israeli normalization serves as a strong case against al-Sharaa and a source of frustration for hardliners in the country, which is a problem for the government.
Third
, Julani continues to strengthen his political standing. His meeting with the U.S. ...
... occupied the Syrian Golan Heights, an area of approximately 1,200 square kilometers that it seized during the June 1967 war. In 1981, Israel unilaterally declared the annexation of the Golan, a move that was never recognized by the international community.
Israeli threat to Syria
In the years leading up to the collapse of Bashar Assad's regime in late 2024, numerous reports indicated that Israel did not view his downfall as a direct strategic gain. Despite his close ties with Iran, the Syrian regime was weak and exhausted ...
... Turkish borders. Probably, Recep Erdogan would be much more comfortable if Damascus was under control of the Syrian National Army units, and not by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militants, but it is the latter, not the former that now has the upper hand in the Syrian capital.
Israel's priority is to inflict irreparable damage to Syria's remaining military potential, which is exactly what the Israeli air force is actively doing now hitting the Syrian military hardware all over the place. In addition, Benjamin Netanyahu's goals ...
... Thus, they will likely try to remain neutral in the event of a possible regional escalation.
Will Syria become involved?
The probability of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR) becoming involved in the war deserves special attention. Despite the fact that Syria has territorial claims against Israel (the Golan Heights were occupied by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967), one can hardly expect that the SAR is now ready to go to war with the Jewish state. This is due, among other things, to the internal challenges Syria faces today. Syrian ...
... participation in the construction causing U.S. warnings. In the
opinion
of U.S. officials, increased Chinese investment in Israel is a serious threat to the latter’s national security.
* * *
China’s influence in the Middle East is still mainly limited ... ...
, both through bilateral channels and at the UN. An important component of humanitarian aid is food aid, such as support of Syria facing the consequences of the earthquake.
The outcomes of this policy will take time to be visible, but it can already ...
... that threatens to challenge a very delicate balance of powers in Syria and perhaps in Lebanon as well. On the one hand, stronger ties between Moscow and Tehran could embolden Iran to be more assertive and aggressive in supporting its Shia clients in Syria and Lebanon, to the detriment of Israeli security. On the other hand, the Israeli leadership is under growing pressure from the West and a large part of the Israeli society to provide more support to Ukraine and to distance itself from Moscow. [
6
] This could result in Russian-Israeli ...
... level of the structure and concept of its national security has changed in a dramatic and fundamental way, and among those challenges are:
1- The axis of resistance now has huge armed capabilities that can cover the entire territory of the State of Israel.
2- The Syrian army and Hezbollah have offensive military experience as a result of the guerrilla war with terrorist movements supported by the West and Israel.
3- The Axis of Resistance developed its military strategy based on striking Israel’s air and sea ...
... agenda, as well as keep our expectations low as concerns possible breakthroughs on the profiles which will get certain US attention: the Iran nuclear deal, Syrian Kurds issue, reconciliation with Turkey, dealing with Libya, cultivating relations with Israel and Palestine.
Syria Is Not a Priority
Syria has never been a priority for the US foreign policy and will likely remain a second-tier issue for Biden and his team. In fact, some analysis of the US Middle East policy over the last decade shows consistency of approach....
... Eastern crises and to which extent the interests of Moscow and Tehran overlap or contradict each other. Some of the key issues of the political situation in the region were assessed, such as the situation in Idlib, the prospects for a political process in Syria, Israel’s role in the region’s future, the path to Syria’s reconstruction and the impact of U.S. policies on the emerging new order in the Middle East. Both Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran regard each other as necessary components of the ...