Future belongs to the dialogue of the Nuclear Five?
The steps taken by the parties following Russia’s suspension of the New START, signed in Prague in 2010, as well as statements made by key officials, make it possible to offer a cautious forecast of the medium-term future of arms control between the two leading nuclear superpowers.
February freeze
Prokhor Tebin:
Predicting a Tripolar Nuclear World: Where Does the United States Fit In?
In late February, the consistent degradation of relations between Moscow and Washington ...
We are witnessing the dawn of a new era in our nuclear world
The resumption of U.S.–Russia consultations on arms control and strategic stability in Vienna in late June is certainly good news. If the discussions go well, then there may be hope that the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) will be extended after all. If the sides fail to come to an agreement, the likelihood of which, unfortunately, is extremely ...
Interview with Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at Hudson Institute
In an interview for the RIAC, Richard Weitz spoke about the fate of the New START Treaty, China’s stance towards international agreements regulating arms control and the extent of Russia-China military cooperation.
What measures do you think Russia and the U.S. should take upon the expiration of the New START Treaty?
Lecture by Richard Weitz “No Love Triangle Russia-USA-China: What Can We Expect from Our Partners?”
One of the ...
... drama to the inevitable demise of arms control. Irrespective of the administration occupying the White House, it is no longer possible for Moscow and Washington to return to the 1970s or even to 2010, when Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama signed the New START Treaty.
Clearly, it is unlikely that any new strategic arms control agreements will be signed in the next few years. First of all, the political background in Russia-US relations is not favourable for fruitful talks. Can such an agreement be discussed at all when the two countries’ leaders cannot coordinate their next meeting for six months? In addition, amid the ongoing political crisis in the United States,...
... will bring the issue of a nuclear agreement with Russia into the spotlight of the campaigns of Donald Trump and his opponent, and the demand for a tough stance here is greater than before.
The Day after Tomorrow
Andrey Kortunov:
Is There Life After Arms Control Death?
It is, thus, highly likely that New START will not be extended and will cease to exist in February 2021. And Russia needs to understand this. What will this mean for relations between the great powers, arms control, and, most importantly, national security and the development of military capabilities?
The collapse of the Treaty will no doubt lead to increasingly ...
... launched the procedure of withdrawal from the Treaty on the Elimination of the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty). Russia, in turn, also suspended its participation in the INF. According to Andrei Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council on International Affairs, the United States’ decision can create a “domino effect” in the nuclear arms control: by quitting the INF Treaty, Washington puts in question the prolongation of the New START agreement, and without the New START, there will be a broader issue of maintaining the nuclear weapons non-proliferation regime.
Three levels of argumentation
Igor Ivanov:
Nuclear Catastrophe: Myth or Reality?
There are three circumstances ...
... Moscow and in the European capitals: it is not about splitting the transatlantic unity or driving a wedge between Western and Eastern Europe. On the contrary, the emergence of a purely European arms control regime should help the disintegrating U.S.–Russia system of treaties remain in place. This, however, would require both parties to act fairly boldly.
The Future of New START and Arms Control
It should be stressed here that, unless the United States resorts to overly provocative activities in terms of deploying new intermediate and shorter range missile systems aimed directly at the Russian strategic nuclear forces (SNF), then ...
... Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, another step towards the destruction of the international arms control regime established over 30 years ago. At the same time, military technology... ... day we hear news about the appearance of new, increasingly deadly weapons. Moreover, Russia and the United States — the two countries, which are responsible to a great... ... Yes, the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty was signed in Moscow in 2002, and the New START was signed in 2010. And both these documents are, without a doubt, very important...
... in 1972 and had served as a foundation of global strategic stability for 30 years. I remember well the tremendous efforts the Russian leadership poured into trying to keep the American side from taking such a step. President Vladimir Putin met several ... ... are in high-risk regions where military tensions are already elevated.
Dmitry Stefanovich:
Post-Helsinki Opportunities for New START and the INF Treaty?
I would venture to suggest that, following the withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the U.S. Administration ...
... three decades—for instance, the New START Treaty, not Russia’s accession to the WTO or the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment, was considered the main accomplishment of the Obama administration’s “reset” policy. As the extension of the New START Treaty is also up in the air, removing the centrality of strategic arms control not only deprives the U.S.-Russia relationship of its special status in global politics, but also drastically reduces both countries’ importance to one another.
Russia and the United States will not be the only countries to suffer. The possibility of deploying intermediate-range ...
