... much as possible and make the resumption of the talks as simple as possible. There are at least four ways of doing this.
Alexander Yermakov:
Brave New World Without INF Treaty
First, even the absence of formal obligations under the INF Treaty or the New START Treaty cannot stop the sides from honoring them de facto. The analysis of the Russian and American nuclear modernization plans shows that the sides do not intend to move beyond the existing agreements. An informal arrangement or at least a silent ...
... issues through technical talks focused on practical, mutually-amenable solutions. Moscow and Washington should also intensify diplomatic efforts to begin a global conversation on the risks posed by intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
2) Extend the New START
Treaty until 2026. Set to expire in February 2021, the New START Treaty provides common-sense limits and verification on the numbers of U.S. and Russian deployed strategic weapons and delivery vehicles. Extending the treaty until 2026 will ...
... rescued, but only if Russia and the United States demonstrate political goodwill. The two countries need to be able to both demonstrate and explain the specifics of their own weapons systems and accept the opponent’s explanations.
The prospects of the New START being prolonged are moot, and the balance may shift either way. In fact, if the INF Treaty is cancelled altogether, there may be fewer obstacles than if both Russia and the United States allegedly violate it. On the other hand, yet another destroyed ...
It is still possible that both sides may uncover some new options for arms control, with the aim of upgrading and updating the principles of New START and the INF Treaty
The articles below were informed by a roundtable discussion in London in October 2018 between the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and RUSI to discuss the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. While the discussion ...
... that leaders today recognize their responsibility to work together to prevent nuclear catastrophe and provide a foundation for other practical steps to reduce the risk of nuclear use—including resolving the current problems with INF and extending the New START Treaty through 2026.
There remains the challenge of rebuilding trust between the United States, NATO and Russia so that it will again be possible to address major security challenges in the Euro-Atlantic region. This was done throughout the ...
... judgment about Russian non-compliance, but not necessarily Washington’s response. Divergent European and American approaches to the INF crisis would be highly damaging.
Even more troubling would be the likely consequences of the Treaty’s demise.
The New START Agreement, which limits US and Russian strategic nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles, expires in 2021 and the INF crisis increases the risk that it will not be extended or replaced. Collapse of INF would spur the development of new nuclear ...
... United States and Russia, as well as by a large group of states that have the necessary capabilities. Many of those countries are in high-risk regions where military tensions are already elevated.
Dmitry Stefanovich:
Post-Helsinki Opportunities for New START and the INF Treaty?
I would venture to suggest that, following the withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the U.S. Administration will waste no time in making the decision not to prolong the New START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) signed ...
... maneuver—and they hope that the White House has not made a final decision yet. But the INF Treaty has been dying a slow death for several years, and the chances of preserving it dwindle every month.
Dmitry Stefanovich:
Post-Helsinki Opportunities for New START and the INF Treaty?
Neither Russia nor the United States has displayed much political will or persistence in seeking a compromise or taking unilateral steps to rescue the treaty. It is clear that neither side has considered saving the INF treaty—not ...
... (and some tweets by his American counterpart), two major arms control treaties were discussed: the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty [
1
] and the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START). There are issues with both of them, but they remain key to preserving strategic stability and global security.
Over the last week, Vladimir Putin repeatedly claimed that Russia is ready to overcome the existing roadblocks that threaten the ...
... with a new agreement in 2021. It is possible that, if one of the parties withdraws from the INF Treaty, this will result in the active build-up of weapons of mass destruction with the use of short- and medium-range missiles. In such a situation, the New START would no longer work, and a new agreement would be next to impossible to sign, with all the consequences this would entail for the international security system.
The INF and New START treaties exert a deterrent effect on the other nuclear powers,...
