... understand that the Arctic Council functioned on the fundamental principles of the Ottawa declaration and decisions within the council were taken on a consensus basis. Traditional security and military component was kept deliberately out of the scope of the Arctic Council. With Finland joining NATO and Sweden next in line for its membership, one may argue that geopolitics has already taken over the Arctic Council. Under such a new framework how overall cooperation in the council resumes is a debatable question. Norway’s recent expulsion of ...
... of “denying Russia’s claims,” we see
the redoubling of efforts
to transfer the agenda of multilateral cooperation in the Arctic to exclusive platforms like
Nordic Plus
, where Moscow is not even invited.
The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO apparently threatens Russia’s interests in the Arctic, given that the Alliance may one day deploy military assets in their territory, including strike capabilities. The mounting potential for conflict in the Arctic, due to a predictably higher intensity of air-force and naval operations conducted ...
... Arctic into the North Atlantic.
As a result of Russian activities in the region, the transatlantic community assesses that the security environment has changed substantively. NATO, including the UK, has developed a much keener interest in the region, and NATO Arctic states that were previously resistant to the Alliance having a regional role are shifting to accept that it can be an interlocutor on Arctic military questions. There is a perception that there needs to be an Alliance response to Russian activities ...
... Arctic strategy until 2035 mentions, but does not concentrate on, Russia’s sovereign claims in the region, focusing instead on the region’s economic and social development. And though U.S. perception of a strengthened Russian military presence in the Arctic has provoked an increase in NATO patrols in the Bering and Barents Sea, it has not provoked an Arctic arms race. Even as policymakers in the United States turn their attention to U.S. insecurity in the Arctic, the U.S. Air Force and Navy have made only limited adjustments to their ...
... side on its militarizing the Arctic is especially important because of the apparent asymmetric power relations between Russia in the Arctic and the other Arctic states. The holding of regular information-sharing sessions on military activities in the Arctic, regular NATO-Russia joint dialogues, as well as occasional NATO-Russia joint exercises in the Arctic could undoubtedly help reduce the tension.
... Russia-the U.S. relations.
The expert discussion focused on the future of the arms control regime; key issues in U.S.-China relations and their impact on the development of Russia-the U.S. relations; relations between Russia and the United States in the Arctic; prospects for resolving the Middle East crisis; political changes in Russia and the United States and their impact on bilateral relations.
The discussion was attended by experts on Russia-the U.S. relations and international security from both ...
... services) and would facilitate negotiations with potential partners that need the NSR for their own purposes (first of all, China).
Return of the “Big Game”
Several publications in the West
have already referred
to the interaction between Russia and NATO in the Arctic as the “Big Game,” which brings up obvious associations with the historical rivalry between Russia and Great Britain in South and Central Asia in the 19th to early 20th centuries. This term probably fits the current conditions but must be interpreted ...
... for Soviet ballistic missile submarines: the core of the second-strike nuclear force, a key deterrence factor. It was from there that the Soviet Navy, with its mighty submarine fleet, was preparing to sail into the Atlantic in the event of a war with NATO. The Arctic airspace also provided the shortest trajectories for U.S. and Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles aimed at potential enemy targets.
In 1987, toward the end of the Cold War, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev delivered a speech in Murmansk on ...
... continued to build up and strengthen its military activities in the Arctic by preparing forward airfields, modernizing sea ports and creating a system of prepositioned stockpiling. Provocative military activity was recorded close to Russian borders.
NATO started holding regularly military exercises in the Arctic. In 2018, the alliance
held its largest
ever drill in the north. 50,000 troops, 250 aircraft and 65 large surface ships from 31 states participated. The drill failed to have an intimidating and provocative effect, though. Moscow reacted rather ...
... Norway would ‘have to face head-on Russia and Russian military might’. A similar warning was issued in November 2011, when President Medvedev announced that to prevent nuclear war, Russia may have to launch a limited military strike to decapitate NATO’s missile defence components when the system reaches the maturity to neutralise Russian second-strike capabilities. Further tensions in the Arctic is also evident as Norway is accused of attempting to establish ‘absolute national jurisdiction’ over Svalbard and its shelf. In a breach of the Svalbard Treaty, Russian officials were banned access, while members of the NATO Parliamentary ...
