... Egypt to Syria, and from Turkey to Iran—are unwilling to engage in a full-blown war. Middle Eastern leaders are reluctant to shoulder the numerous risks and costs associated with a major armed conflict in one way or another.
True, the arms race in the Middle East region received a powerful new boost in October 2023 and is likely to accelerate later. Belligerent anti-Israeli rhetoric—not only in the Arab world but also in Iran and Turkey—will also persist. Isolated tragic incidents—both planned and accidental—will continue. Yet a major war is a different matter.
This is not because all Middle Eastern leaders are exceptionally compassionate and peace-loving, but because ...
Soviet influence in the Middle East was ultimately useless, and now it seems Washington is heading down the same path
The confrontation between Iran and Israel has been going on for several weeks now. However, none of the parties directly – or, indeed, indirectly – involved in Middle East politics are keen to see events there escalate into a larger military conflict.
In other words, the situation ...
The two rivals’ jabs at each other are rapidly increasing in both number and intensity
The situation in the Middle East, where the aspirations of Iran and Israel have once again collided, is paradoxical in that there is no way out. Both sides would like to put a stop to the other’s gallop, but this is impossible without disastrous consequences for themselves. There are many reasons for this situation,...
... perhaps other targets in the West. It is still unclear when Iran will launch its threatening assault against Israel, or what form those strikes would take.
Hamna Ghias Sheikh:
Shadows of Escalation: The Ripple Effects of Ismail Haniyeh's Assassination on Middle Eastern Stability
While Iran’s recent April 13 attack on Israel marked a significant escalation for the two nations—over 300 drones and a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles were launched—almost all incoming drones and missiles were intercepted with little to no damage. The lack of a damaging response ...
... to Haniyeh's killing has been swift and direct. Iran, a staunch supporter of Hamas since its inception in 1987, has provided extensive training and funding to the group, supplying them with rockets, missiles, and drones. Additionally, according to
Middle Eastern intelligence officials
, Iran has played a crucial role in helping Hamas construct an intricate network of underground tunnels in Gaza, designed to protect their equipment and infrastructure from Israeli attacks. Hamas has also received significant financial support from Iran, along with technical assistance to produce rockets and drones equipped with advanced guidance systems. Iran, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has therefore
vowed retaliation
...
... nine-month mark. Since the events of October 7 last year, there has been an unprecedented uptick of violence in the Palestinian–Israeli conflict zone. No solution to the fundamental problems related to the Palestinian–Israeli issue has been found yet, while the risks of escalation in the Middle East amid tensions on the Lebanese–Israeli border have mounted over the past few weeks.
How viable is a settlement of ... ... intensifying hostilities? Opinions differ on this point. Hezbollah is one of Israel’s main adversaries, all the more so because Iran is backing it. That being said, Hezbollah is deeply integrated into Lebanon’s political landscape. It is not a full-fledged ...
... circumstances, political and economic trends in the Middle East require a degree of theoretical conceptualization. The authors of this report analyze the current political and economic trends in the region’s Arab countries and non-Arab states, including Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Additionally, the authors examine key foreign policy trends in Middle Eastern states.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics
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... when you least expect it.
For a long time, the main goal in the US Middle East strategy was to neutralize the role of Iran as the joker. One after another, US presidents have tried to convince the international community that the main problem in the Middle East was not even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but rather Tehran’s “regional hegemonism.”
Various ways of solving the “Iranian problem” were proposed, including the creation of the broadest possible anti-Iranian coalitions, increased economic and diplomatic pressure on Tehran, as well as tough confrontation with Shiite groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and elsewhere ...
... although the Kremlin remains interested in a Syrian-Turkish rapprochement and Syria rejoining the League of Arab States. [
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The crisis in Eastern Europe has been less significant for the region than many other events happening simultaneously inside the Middle East, such as expanding the Abraham Accords, Israel’s deep political crisis, or the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. However, the crisis in Eastern Europe did have an impact on the food security of the MENA region and it also affected negotiations on oil exports within the OPEC+ format. Still, it would be an exaggeration to argue that since the ...
... resistance against Zionism and American imperialism in the region.
The barbaric military operation of Israel in Gaza, which led to the death of more than 9000 Palestinian civilians, more than half of them children, could shortly lead to an all-out war in the Middle East between Israel on the one hand and Iran and its militia in Iraq and Syria and its Hezbollah proxy on the other. Of course, the Iranian elites could only strive to avoid being entrapped in a full confrontation with Israel. This could lead to considerable disaster in human and financial ...
