... anxious expectation: would war erupt, or could the situation be contained?
The first reason behind the sharp escalation is, without doubt, Donald Trump’s return to office. It is well known that during his first presidency in 2018, he
withdrew
from the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA), reinstated prior sanctions and introduced
new
, extremely severe ones against Tehran. Trump took a hardline stance toward the Islamic regime, viewing it as a threat to human rights and regional stability. By early February of this year, he had ...
... made by Syrians themselves, no matter whether in Russia or in Iran they liked this choice or not. Finally, UN Security Council Resolution 1929 was passed fifteen years ago, in an entirely different global and regional context. Five years later, after JCPOA was signed, the restrictions of 1929 were repealed. I cannot imagine a new UN SC resolution similar to 1929 to be passed in any foreseeable future.
Should Iran be worried about Trump's rapprochement with Russia? Could a deal between Trump and Russia over Iran be possible in exchange for Russia giving concessions on Ukraine? If this deal really exists, what would it be and what consequences would it have ...
... change the course of American foreign policy towards China. However, for Iran, the outcome of the elections is of greater importance. A victory for Kamala Harris will not lead to a return to the parameters of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the 2015 “Iran nuclear deal”, but is unlikely to lead to a sharp escalation of pressure on Iran. A victory for Donald Trump, however, could result in increased pressure on Iran, given the tougher position of the Republicans on relations with the Islamic Republic....
... question.
The GCC countries expect Moscow to influence Iran, limiting the dangers it poses. The possibilities of Moscow’s influence on Tehran remain limited, though Russia is trying to show GCC countries its ability to influence the implementation of the Iran Nuclear Deal. The resumption of the JCPOA as a whole is in the interests of all Gulf countries, including Iran. This is also important for Russia since it considers ensuring security in the Gulf a key regional goal. By expanding the dialogue between Iran and the GCC countries Moscow would ...
... as much as possible and ensuring Ukraine manages to preserve its sovereignty. Both are hugely dependent on the U.S. ability to manipulate the world petroleum prices and the amount of Russia’s oil and gas exports.
Ivan Timofeev:
US Sanctions Against Iran and the Future of the JCPOA: A View From Tehran and Moscow
Economic pressure on Moscow is (among other factors) largely sustained by the prices of gas and oil, whose export is a crucial component of Russia’s economy. Therefore, one of Washington’s primary efforts is centered ...
... Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The highlight of the meeting was the decision taken by the Heads of State Council of the SCO on launching the procedure of granting SCO membership to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Ivan Timofeev:
US Sanctions Against Iran and the Future of the JCPOA: A View From Tehran and Moscow
Technically, this decision does not turn Tehran into a full-fledged SCO member, launching the accession process only. Granting full membership involves a number of agreements signed, which usually takes about two years....
... simply impossible. This means that Biden cannot agree to the lifting of sanctions without the risk of serious losses of his political capital. In other words, Tehran’s requests are unacceptable for the US President.
Ivan Timofeev:
US Sanctions Against Iran and the Future of the JCPOA: A View From Tehran and Moscow
On the other hand, Biden can soften or modify those Trump decrees that he introduced after leaving the deal and which have seriously tightened sanctions. US law does not provide for the president to be accountable ...
... the meeting was to find a commonality between the positions of Russia and France on key issues related to Iranian issues. Within the framework of the workshop, there was a discussion of the role of Russia and France in the possible restoration of the JCPOA, future of the Iran nuclear deal, key directions of Iran's regional policy and the transformation of its foreign policy due to the situation in Afghanistan.
Leading Russian and French diplomats and experts attended the meeting. On the RIAC side, the meeting was attended ...
... of International Studies, MGIMO University
Moderator:
Ruslan Mamedov
, MENA Program Manager, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
Discussion points:
Causes for previous failures to build a regional security
Ways to facilitate talks in post-JCPOA era
Changes and role of Russian policy in the Persian Gulf
Biden administration policies and its influence on Saudi-Iranian talks. Impacts of Iran’s presidential elections on regional talks
Working language: English.
June 28, 2021, 15:00 GMT+3
The event will be streamed online via RIAC website, YouTube channel, and RIAC page on Facebook. Please, leave your questions ...
... unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, renewing massive economic sanctions against Iran. The subsequent extraterritorial application of US sanctions forced a significant number of foreign companies to leave Iran.
Ivan Timofeev:
USA vs. JCPOA: How Can Russia and China Respond?
Companies from the EU have suffered the most. Moreover, during the presidency of Donald Trump, the volume of restrictive measures against Iran was increased by Presidential Executive Orders No. 13846, 13871, 13876,...
