... question.
The GCC countries expect Moscow to influence Iran, limiting the dangers it poses. The possibilities of Moscow’s influence on Tehran remain limited, though Russia is trying to show GCC countries its ability to influence the implementation of the Iran Nuclear Deal. The resumption of the JCPOA as a whole is in the interests of all Gulf countries, including Iran. This is also important for Russia since it considers ensuring security in the Gulf a key regional goal. By expanding the dialogue between Iran and the GCC countries Moscow would ...
... as much as possible and ensuring Ukraine manages to preserve its sovereignty. Both are hugely dependent on the U.S. ability to manipulate the world petroleum prices and the amount of Russia’s oil and gas exports.
Ivan Timofeev:
US Sanctions Against Iran and the Future of the JCPOA: A View From Tehran and Moscow
Economic pressure on Moscow is (among other factors) largely sustained by the prices of gas and oil, whose export is a crucial component of Russia’s economy. Therefore, one of Washington’s primary efforts is centered ...
... Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The highlight of the meeting was the decision taken by the Heads of State Council of the SCO on launching the procedure of granting SCO membership to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Ivan Timofeev:
US Sanctions Against Iran and the Future of the JCPOA: A View From Tehran and Moscow
Technically, this decision does not turn Tehran into a full-fledged SCO member, launching the accession process only. Granting full membership involves a number of agreements signed, which usually takes about two years....
... simply impossible. This means that Biden cannot agree to the lifting of sanctions without the risk of serious losses of his political capital. In other words, Tehran’s requests are unacceptable for the US President.
Ivan Timofeev:
US Sanctions Against Iran and the Future of the JCPOA: A View From Tehran and Moscow
On the other hand, Biden can soften or modify those Trump decrees that he introduced after leaving the deal and which have seriously tightened sanctions. US law does not provide for the president to be accountable ...
... the meeting was to find a commonality between the positions of Russia and France on key issues related to Iranian issues. Within the framework of the workshop, there was a discussion of the role of Russia and France in the possible restoration of the JCPOA, future of the Iran nuclear deal, key directions of Iran's regional policy and the transformation of its foreign policy due to the situation in Afghanistan.
Leading Russian and French diplomats and experts attended the meeting. On the RIAC side, the meeting was attended ...
... of International Studies, MGIMO University
Moderator:
Ruslan Mamedov
, MENA Program Manager, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
Discussion points:
Causes for previous failures to build a regional security
Ways to facilitate talks in post-JCPOA era
Changes and role of Russian policy in the Persian Gulf
Biden administration policies and its influence on Saudi-Iranian talks. Impacts of Iran’s presidential elections on regional talks
Working language: English.
June 28, 2021, 15:00 GMT+3
The event will be streamed online via RIAC website, YouTube channel, and RIAC page on Facebook. Please, leave your questions ...
... unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, renewing massive economic sanctions against Iran. The subsequent extraterritorial application of US sanctions forced a significant number of foreign companies to leave Iran.
Ivan Timofeev:
USA vs. JCPOA: How Can Russia and China Respond?
Companies from the EU have suffered the most. Moreover, during the presidency of Donald Trump, the volume of restrictive measures against Iran was increased by Presidential Executive Orders No. 13846, 13871, 13876,...
... to co-opt it by addressing its concerns and moderating the Turkish-Kurdish agreement. Such steps can potentially change the course of the conflict, thus profoundly affecting Russian positions in Syria.
Similar logic applies to the US policy towards Iran and to the revival of the JCPOA. Washington would very much like to tie the nuclear deal to other issues of concern, such as Iran’s ballistic missile program and/or its “malign activities in the region”, including those in Syria. Such an approach aspires to change Iran’s ...
... of Barack Obama’s diplomacy—the Iranian nuclear deal. Trump not only returned all previously lifted sanctions against Tehran, but also significantly increased pressure on the financial, metallurgical, energy and a number of other sectors of the Iranian economy. It is likely that Biden will attempt to return America to the JCPOA. This will not be easy. The big question is: what will happen to Trump’s sanctions legacy? Will the sanctions be lifted, suspended or modified? Under what conditions could this be done? For example, will the renewal of the arms embargo become ...
... consistent feature of US-Iran tensions. A new president in the White House is expected to bring opportunities for diplomatic crisis management, but it might not be able to swiftly erode the risk of war.
Several factors contributing to the risk of a US-Iran war remain persistent throughout 2021. First, both sides’ violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has complicated the resolution of the nuclear crisis with a face-saving option, raising the chance of failure. Second, while Washington assesses its extended sanction regime as invaluable leverage, Tehran see its nuclear potential and the swift ...
