... predictable foreign policy towards the region.
On October 26, 2019, the Iraqi-born leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed during a U.S. raid. What do you make of his death and what consequences could that have for ISIS and international terrorism as a whole?
Andrey Kortunov, Michel Duclos:
Helping Iran to Make the Right Choice
The killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is definitely a further blow to ISIS as it eliminated its operational leader. However, the reality of the ISIS threat, and perhaps more so than other groups such as Al-Qaida, is that ISIS ...
As long as this region is not stabilized, ISIS will continue to emerge and re-emerge
Professor Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, President of the Middle East Research Institute, shares his thoughts on security issues for the Middle East.
Andrey Kortunov, Michel Duclos:
Helping Iran to Make the Right Choice
Nowadays, Iran is perceived mostly as the source of instability in the region. In your opinion, there is something that regional actors and global actors can do here to change the situation?
What is clearly missing is proper ...
... surviving a very difficult strategic environment. If you think about the Gulf, one thinks of both the regional powers such as Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the global actors: the US, UK, Russia. I decided to look at something else, at Bahrain, the smallest state ... ... answer. And the answer is simple—smart leadership, strong citizenry, and functional alliances.
The recent video appearance of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi has sparked concerns among experts who warn that more terror attacks could be expected. In your ...
... how to cope with three recent developments that call for significant adjustments in the Russian strategy.
First, the defeat of ISIS, which is definitely a positive development for everybody engaged in Syria and in neighboring countries, has an important ... ... for Russia to forge even tactical alliances in the region, not to mention strategic coalitions.
Second, the current Israeli-Iranian and US — Iranian rift immensely complicates Russia’s role as an ‘honest broker’ in the region. Neither Israel,...
..., RIAC Deputy Director of Programs, and Davood Kiani, IRAS President, moderated the meeting.
On February 6 Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) held a video conference with the Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies (IRAS) on Russia’s and Iran’s positions in the Middle East in post-ISIS period.
The video conference consisted of two sessions: the presentations made by the speakers and the following discussions between the sided (Q&A). Timur Makhmutov, RIAC Deputy Director of Programs, and Davood Kiani, IRAS President, moderated the ...
... along the lines of the ‘Saudi 2030 Vision’); in 2018 a small fraction (5%) of Saudi Aramco’s shares will be listed on capital markets, a fact which might be a sign of further openings — but it is still early to say. Possible new sanctions on Iran and Venezuela’s persistent crisis might further prop up oil prices, but Saudi Arabia has to rely on its own forces, not on more or less favourable international conjunctures.
The third big issue, despite ISIS’ demise, remains that of terrorism. It is now time to think about a ...
... situation is quite different: Assad has obliterated many of the rebel strongholds, most notably (and most tragically) Aleppo, and ISIS, too, has been severely weakened, facing its final days in Mosul, Iraq, one of its two last major strongholds, and in the ... ... “capital;” furthermore, not only does Assad’s government have the active of support of the Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah and of Iran’s military on the ground (among other Shiite militias), but it also enjoys the robust military support of Russia and its ...
... reserves and miss-using petrol-bucks to lead the said world. Iran supports Alawaits in Syria, Houthis in Yemen, Hizbullah in Lebanon Muqtada Alsader in Iraq Hizb-e-wahdat Islamic and Harakat Islamic in Afghanistan in return Saudi-Arabia holds up IS (ISIS, ISIL), ISK and Wahabistic movements to set up counter-balance for Iran in the region and beyond, both sides via numerous means want to undermine each others’ role in the Muslim world they push even deeper for years Iranian regime suppresses the Sunni minority in Iran on the other side Saudi-Arabia represses Shiite ...
... a lot more for Saudi Arabia than a new alliance with Russia ever could. In general, Russia hardly has a strong position in the Middle East; Putin's desperation to help Assad, his one main ally in the region (it would be a stretch to say that Iran and Russia are general allies even as they are allies in the Syrian Civil War), even at the expense of empowering ISIS, is a reflection of this weakness. And as Putin cozies up to dictators like Assad and Sisi, he risks severely undermining any chance of real long-term gains where he and Russians seek them the most: in Europe. Democracy-loving Europe will not sit ...
..., so intractable, and so long; it is about so much more than just Syria when you throw the age-old Sunni-Shiite sectarian rivalries into the mix, which have been red-hot since the Lebanese Civil War, continuing through the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War, through the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and now through conflict in Yemen and Syria.
Recruits are coming from all over the world—even young girls from the West—to join ISIS in Syria (some 30,000 over the past few years, according to a recent major report). Some of the older people involved in this will have been veterans of the conflicts in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Iraq. All of those conflicts lasted about a decade; ...
