... major regional conflict. The military operation of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the Gaza Strip was to be followed by fierce hostilities in the West Bank, then by a large-scale border clash between Israel and Lebanon, and, finally, by an Israeli–Iranian war, which had been looming on the political horizon for years and was literally just a step away, with the likely involvement of several key regional and global actors, including the United States.
Andrey Kortunov:
When “Iron Swords” Return ...
... overdue and predictable, regardless of triggers similar to the “Kayseri incident”. For more than 13 years of the Syrian crisis, a tangled web of foreign policy contradictions has emerged between Ankara and Damascus due to the involvement of Russia, Iran, the United States and the GCC monarchies in the conflict. These were almost immediately compounded by domestic political issues: the Turkish “protectorate” in northern Syria with a military presence unauthorized by the central Syrian authorities,...
... Israel seeks to cause internal disarray within Hamas, diminish its symbolic significance, and sow fear among its supporters. The political implications of this assassination extend to the regional power struggle. Haniyeh's assassination, particularly on Iranian soil, can be interpreted as a direct challenge to Iran's support for Hamas. It underscores the ongoing proxy conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting Israel's determination to counter Iranian influence in the region. This operation is not ...
... States will support its ally. At the same time, the U.S. is making efforts to preclude this war.
Is Hezbollah interested in intensifying hostilities? Opinions differ on this point. Hezbollah is one of Israel’s main adversaries, all the more so because Iran is backing it. That being said, Hezbollah is deeply integrated into Lebanon’s political landscape. It is not a full-fledged non-state actor as the movement is represented in both the Lebanese government and parliament. Furthermore, Hezbollah has ...
Recent developments indicate improving Syrian-Turkish relations, aiming for regional stability, security cooperation and economic partnerships
Over the past years, Syrian-Turkish relations have experienced significant fluctuations, ranging from tension and hostility to recent attempts at normalization. Some signs suggest a mutual desire to enhance relations, evident in meetings at various levels, notably involving intelligence agency directors and foreign ministers.
Ilya Vedeneyev:
Syria–Turkey...
... completely dismantled. Azerbaijan became the second state after Russia to integrate the secessionist territory, although the mode of how Karabakh and Chechnya got incorporated significantly
differ
.
The change in the status quo also contributed to Iran’s notable invigoration. Two Eurasian giants, China and India, have also adopted a higher profile in the Caucasus. With the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S., the EU (and France in particular) along with ...
... October 7: Any Odds of Success?
In the expert community, the autonomy and authenticity of the Houthi ideology and socio-political movement with deep Yemeni roots are generally not in doubt. The Houthi were not and are not “agents” or “proxies” of Iran, despite their growing cooperation in recent years. In the Houthi movement, as was correctly noted by the well-known orientalist B. Haykel, the influence of not only Shiite but also Sunni currents of modern political Islam, as well as secular ideologies,...
... circumstances, political and economic trends in the Middle East require a degree of theoretical conceptualization. The authors of this report analyze the current political and economic trends in the region’s Arab countries and non-Arab states, including Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Additionally, the authors examine key foreign policy trends in Middle Eastern states.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics
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How Tehran Differs from Other Regional Players
Last Sunday, February 11, Iran celebrated the 45
th
anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Celebratory rallies were held in over 1,400 towns and 35,000 villages across the country. In Tehran, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi spoke to the participants of the festive processions....
... be an overstatement to say that a lot of what is happening now would have been unthinkable just a couple of years ago.
The greatest of these changes is the China-mediated rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given that these countries are regional “centers of power”, their new and improved relations may help reduce regional tensions in certain countries like Yemen.
Another significant factor that is driving the shifts in Middle Eastern state alignments ...
