Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation...
... expectations of the Ukrainian people. To ensure that this does not happen, joint work to step up international efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis must be launched without delay.
Convening a meeting of the Normandy Four as soon as possible would be a positive ... ... time to seriously consider expanding the composition of the group. Now would be a good time to invite representatives of the European Union and the United States to take part. And such a decision would be entirely justified, as it would allow external ...
... crucial source of legitimacy for any potential Ukrainian leader.
At the same time, this scenario entails the continuation and even an intensification of the confrontation between Russia and the West. The economic sanctions of the United States and the European Union will be retained and expanded. An arms race will start in Europe without any effective measures for building up confidence, and certainly without new treaties on arms control. Russia–NATO interaction will be limited to formal contacts ...
This report is based on the results of discussions held by the EU–Russia Expert Network in 2017 and 2018.
Four years after the fallout over Ukraine, rivalry and sanctions have become the ‘new normal’ between Russia and the EU. Both sides have become used to a state of affairs where relations are mired in inertia, and are currently both unable and unwilling to change the status quo.
This report is based on the results of discussions held by the EU–Russia Expert Network in 2017 and 2018. It states...
... Russian foreign policy more one-sided, with all of the evident shortcomings. On the other hand, in the absence of a constructive engagement with Russia, the European voice has become less articulated and less influential in international relations.
The Ukrainian crisis, all of its negative consequences notwithstanding, has clearly demonstrated that it is impossible to provide for stability on the European continent without a close political, economic and security cooperation between Russia and major ...
... theory and in practice. The upcoming elections are likely to bring a similar rethink. Russia faces a number of forks in the road, which could determine the direction of its foreign policy.
Relations with the West are a priority. The United States and the European Union this year will increase pressure on Russia via sanctions, military deterrence and information warfare. Russia will respond in kind, though the balance of power is significantly skewed in the West’s favor.
Broadly speaking, the aim of ...
Prospects for Ukrainian Conflict Resolution
Alexander Tabachnik:
Ukraine between West and East
The appointment of Ambassador Kurt Volker as special envoy for Ukraine signals a renewed interest in Ukraine-related diplomacy in Washington. It is a good time to revisit the troubled Minsk diplomatic process, and to contemplate possible steps toward resolving the conflict necessitates the need to reflect upon on what has gone wrong over the past two years.
An international collision over Ukraine began...
... authorities could have used to punish unwanted military commanders and carry out a massive purge of government officials.
Talks about bringing back the death penalty and strengthening political power will exacerbate relations between Turkey and the European Union, which are not in their best shape as it is, and that will push the country towards political and economic rapprochement with Russia. At the same time, Berezovets does not see any prospects for a long-term Russia–Turkey alliance. ...
...
Мukachevo
in the west or the “Amber People’s Republic” in the north-west of the country. Apparently the European Union is aware that the Kiev authorities have little wiggle room and that is why criticism of Russia over the implementation ... ... it is important to determine how the EU (or at least its Franco-German nucleus), Russia and the USA see the solution of the Ukrainian crisis and to try to find common ground between these various visions through mutual concessions. Without bridging the ...
... had accepted the very restrictive and technical Russian definition of the Partnership for Modernization (something that the European Union could not do due to its very nature), any systematic and successful implementation of the Partnership would eventually ... ... the most remarkable recent features of the Russian policy is the so-called ‘pivot to Asia’. It started before the Ukrainian crisis, but the crisis became a powerful catalyst for changing Russian international priorities from the West to the ...
