... institutions—a move that effectively paralyzed Afghanistan's entire financial system. This action came after decades of U.S. economic dominance in Afghanistan, where foreign aid constituted 75% of the national budget during the
2001-2021 period
.
Unlike Iran's sanctions—which primarily affected its own economy—these measures against Afghanistan directly destroyed the country's governance capacity, banking infrastructure, and humanitarian lifelines, creating the precise conditions that forced
500,000
Afghans to seek refuge in Iran during 2021 alone....
... possible outcomes include:
Direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities (by Israel or the U.S.),
Retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar,
Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,
More active operations by Shiite militias in the region.
Inside Iran, this could trigger another major wave of protests, especially if the economy takes another hit from stricter sanctions. There is also a risk that some radical opposition groups could try to take advantage of the unrest to start an uprising with high casualties—something Iran’s counterintelligence has already warned ...
... completely dismantled. Azerbaijan became the second state after Russia to integrate the secessionist territory, although the mode of how Karabakh and Chechnya got incorporated significantly
differ
.
The change in the status quo also contributed to Iran’s notable invigoration. Two Eurasian giants, China and India, have also adopted a higher profile in the Caucasus. With the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S., the EU (and France in particular) along with ...
Working Paper No. 83 / 2024
Working Paper No. 83 / 2024
The following working paper presents the results of foreign economic activity of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) following its establishment. The author carefully analyzes free trade zone agreements (FTZs) as a key tool for developing the Union’s foreign economic relations. Additionally, the author assesses the effectiveness of existing EAEU FTZ agreements with third countries, as well as the outlook for new agreements. This research aims...
... circumstances, political and economic trends in the Middle East require a degree of theoretical conceptualization. The authors of this report analyze the current political and economic trends in the region’s Arab countries and non-Arab states, including Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Additionally, the authors examine key foreign policy trends in Middle Eastern states.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics
, 1.1 Mb
... be an overstatement to say that a lot of what is happening now would have been unthinkable just a couple of years ago.
The greatest of these changes is the China-mediated rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given that these countries are regional “centers of power”, their new and improved relations may help reduce regional tensions in certain countries like Yemen.
Another significant factor that is driving the shifts in Middle Eastern state alignments ...
... coupled with the decentralization of state power and the development of local self-government, may be key in resolving the Syrian crisis. Economic reintegration may prove to be a catalyst for the peace process. This working paper presents a political economy model for the settlement of the situation in Syria. The author explores the positions of Russia, Iran and China in Syria and their points of interaction. Possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Syria are analysed in detail, as are the modalities of the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the configuration of external actors of the ...
... SCO: a Forced “Look East” Strategy and an Alternative World Order
Iran’s potential as Russia’s economic partner far exceeds the current level. The Islamic Republic could well step in some of the vacant niches in various sectors of Russia’s economy, while Iran could also import a greater range of Russian commodities. Besides, Iran is a market as such, with many vacant niches where Russian investors can launch their enterprises.
At the same time, as a country, Tehran will never approach the scale of opportunities ...
... strengthen regionalism and bolster Eurasian cooperation.
As far as the EAEU interests are concerned, one should say that Iran represents serious potential for the Union’s expansion. Among the economies of the EAEU member states, observers and partners, the Iranian economy is
second
only to Russia’s. In terms of economic cooperation, Russia and Kazakhstan stand to benefit most from lowering tariff barriers. In addition, the project is of particular interest to Armenia, which is the only EAEU member that has a ...
... neighbouring Lebanon. It has weakened the Syrian national currency and reduced potential investments in the recovery of the Syrian economy; more fuel was added to the fire when two explosions rocked the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020, knocking out a key transhipment ... ... retroactively a voluntary sum of
134,523 U.S. dollars
for supplying goods and services to Syria (as well as to the sanctioned Iran and Crimea) for the period from November 5, 2011, to October 18, 2018.
In seemingly friendly Lebanon, which is in dire need ...
