... country’s lack of growth momentum. This rising differentiation in growth across sectors has important implications for investment strategies, as we expect growth in sectors such as IT, agriculture and financials to continue to outperform the rest of the economy.
Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, Russia’s economic growth has underperformed the world’s average almost every year, with notable gaps observed versus the rest of EM and the CEE region throughout the past decade. The sluggish growth performance was partly attributable to the ...
... Maynard Keynes’s optimism and legacy give us reason for hope, not only regarding the possibility to overcome the crisis and increase consumer welfare, but also regarding the possible transformation of the “moral code” of the development of the world economy.
In the context of the unprecedented crisis of the current year, which is commonly being compared to the Great Depression, one often hears apocalyptic predictions about an imminent crisis in consumption and living standards. In this regard, in order to soberly assess our prospects in the ...
... of immunity of national economy as well as the global economy as a whole is dependent on the scale of international cooperation.
Another important dimension is the time-frame that is prioritized in the investment and strategic decisions of the global economy – the current crisis clearly shows that the time-horizons with respect to both consumer demand and supply need to shift to longer term needs and contingency supplies. Also, the high concentration of economic activity in a limited group of countries creates risks of ...
... countries one of the changes in the system may be the creation of a pre-established rules-based anti-crisis mechanism that involves coordinated measures in the fiscal and monetary policy space. The absence of such a mechanism during the onset of the current crisis resulted in a weak aggregate response of the global economy to an unprecedented slowdown, with ad hoc and haphazard measures taken individually by countries without due coordination, most notably with respect to fiscal stimulus measures. Going forward it will be important for such an anti-crisis mechanism ...
The IMF’s diagnosis was that of a “synchronized slowdown” across the globe with the Fund revising its growth projection for global economic growth downwards and putting the 2019 growth estimate at the lowest level since the 2008-2009 financial crisis
This year’s Annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington DC revealed a growing preoccupation with the mounting signs of a slowdown in the world economy. The IMF’s diagnosis was that of a “synchronized slowdown” across the globe with the Fund revising its growth projection for global economic growth downwards and putting the 2019 growth estimate at the lowest level since the 2008-2009 financial ...
... including a global GDP slowdown, a series of defaults and bankruptcies and skydiving prices of raw materials.
As things stand, the “soft-landing” scenario appears more probable, at 60/40.
Consequences for the Russian Economy
Formally, the Russian economy appears to be prepared for a crisis. Russia has a relatively low public debt, significant gold and foreign currency reserves, and a budgetary “safety cushion” in the form of the National Wealth Fund. Coupled with a significant double surplus (a positive external balance plus ...
... has 132 thousand. Most of these users are opponents of Dilma Rousseff’s government and are campaigning for changes in the current model of development, the adoption of a policy of economic liberalization, limits on government interference in the economy and the creation of more favorable conditions for entrepreneurs. A small minority – in particular, the “Down with All” movement (Fora Todos) – unites left-wing radicals,
advocating the establishment of workers’ power
...
