... some even plan to increase numbers of nuclear warheads, which raises doubts about their commitment to Article VI of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and encourages potential proliferators to continue attempts to acquire nuclear weapons. Moreover, strategic arms control per se is in a deep crisis: the United States walked out of the ABM and INF agreements, while Russia suspended its participation to the New START that in any case expires in the beginning of 2026. It is not at all clear whether the strategic ...
... Biden—any agreements beyond the New START will be very difficult to negotiate and to get ratified by the US side. Many fundamental disagreements between Moscow and Washington, on such issues as tactical nuclear weapons, ballistic missile defence, engaging China and other nuclear powers, etc., will not disappear under the new administration. It is also clear that the Biden Administration will have to start reviewing and revising the old paradigm of strategic arms control, in order to catch up with the latest technological developments (space, cyber, AI, autonomous lethal systems, prompt strike, etc.).
8. Regional Problems
Another change in US foreign policy under Biden is that Russia can benefit from is the ...
... there is an agreement that arms control still works.
Beijing’s refusal to participate in a trilateral U.S.-Russia-China dialogue stems from the view that China is far below the strategic levels of the U.S. and Russia. Participants wondered whether China’s interest in arms control would be greater if Beijing was negotiating from a position of relative strength. A trilateral dialogue on intermediate-range missiles in Asia might provide that context, though there are no assurances that the United States would agree to ...
... talk and agree and conclude deals will prevail rather than this ongoing effort to squeeze something out of others—not only China, but Russia and others who tend to follow their independent policy from America.
Heilbrunn
: In this regard, when it comes ... ... that may help to change things for the better.
Heilbrunn
: Final question: do you think that matters, at least in the area of arms control, would change under a Biden presidency? Because the Democrats are much more sympathetic to arms control agreements ...
... of arms control cooperation—the Soviet Union/Russia and the United States were unable to separate nuclear and conventional sea-launched cruise missiles, or to limit their total number in a verifiable way.
Nevertheless, the hypothetical position for China outlined above would be quite reasonable from the standpoint of arms control, and would put the United States—and to some degree, Russia—in an extremely awkward position. China would score a major political bonus, even if the negotiations led nowhere through no fault of its own. Successful negotiations, meanwhile,...
