... in 2020, the balance of power—maintained for 26 years—underwent radical transformations. And this did not only concern a separate ethno-political conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There was a quality change in the role of external forces. Turkey’s unprecedented involvement in the Azerbaijani military campaign to restore the latter’s territorial integrity was the first case of disturbing the status quo in the region, all that with a non-Soviet state and a NATO member involved. In September 2023, the infrastructure of the unrecognized ...
... ties between the three countries. Military and military-technical cooperation between was also realized. However, Pakistan's geographical expansion was not disregarded by India.
However, there is one serious obstacle in the relations between India and Azerbaijan—the latter supports the Pakistani stance on Kashmir. Turkey also has a similar position on this issue. This Ankara-Baku-Islamabad trilateral format became evident in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, when both participants actively supported Azerbaijan's actions. Trilateral cooperation has also inspired ...
... hostilities. In 2020 and 2023, Baku raised the stakes, clearly aware of the window of opportunities. The matter regards Moscow refocusing to other directions (Belarus in 2020 and Ukraine after 2022), the EU and the U.S. being interested in co-operation with Azerbaijan as an important energy partner, and Turkey’s growing potential in Eurasia. The mounting contradictions between Russia and the West were also taken into account, which made it impossible for the leaders of the global community to reach any consensus on the conflict resolution.
The path ...
... So far, these efforts have not been successful. But not a single Western player, despite some being formally neutral (Switzerland, Finland, Sweden), today can take on such a job. It is unlikely that the post-Soviet countries will cope with it either. Turkey, on the other hand, has sufficient political weight, it is part of the Western security community, and at the same time plays an independent role. The Ukrainian crisis has strengthened the status of Ankara.
Azerbaijan is another winning player. Baku maintains partnership relations with Moscow, but it does not have excessive obligations. The current crisis has sharply increased demand for Azerbaijani oil. The country will receive significant income. At the ...
... Azerbaijani control. Instead, it could maintain it as an independent entity controlled by Russian peacekeepers, allowing Armenians and Azerbaijanis to co-exist and live together again. Historical and cultural monuments—both Christian Armenian and Islamic—would ... ... These would include the
Dadivank
and
Amaras
monasteries.
Basel Haj Jasem:
Will Moscow Lead a Historic Reconciliation Between Turkey and Armenia?
The road to such a peace is certainly not easy, but Moscow understands that decisive steps must be taken to ...
... Turkish regions bordering Armenia, where local people have long wanted to strengthen ties to boost their local economies.
Ankara surprised Baku at the end of 2009 by announcing the beginning of normalization with Armenia, the archenemy of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan denounced that step at that time and considered that this would lead to an increase in tension in the South Caucasus if it were not accompanied by a solution to the crisis in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the occupied Azerbaijani territories ...
... the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, as it is far from the Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenia.
The city of Tovuz is located near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, both of which are gates for Azerbaijan to transport its oil and natural gas, the so-called "Caspian Sea wealth," to Turkey, Europe and other global markets.
A Blow to Russian Interests
Christian Wollny:
Nagorno-Karabakh: A Frozen Conflict Rethawed
The location of the attack or the clashes indicates that they were against Turkish-Western and Turkish-Azerbaijani interests....
... fundamental part of any modern-day battle plan. However, they are liable to be just as damaging as conventional weapons.
What Can EU Do For You?
It is clear that a solution in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is inconceivable without Russia. With Turkey deliberately instigating the Azerbaijan government, Russia sees itself as a mediator to both, Armenia and Azerbaijan. While there is a
Russian military base
located in Armenia, and is considered Armenia’s protector, Russian neutrality goes so far that Moscow supplies
weapons ...
... Lachin corridor connecting it with Armenia, was supposed to enter Armenia, which would not lose the border with Iran, only transferred to the north of the current one, while the part of Nakhichevan departing to Armenia would exclude the connection of Azerbaijan with Turkey, which is strategically dangerous for Yerevan.
5. Finally, I will name one more project that was developed by the Russian and American co-chairs of the Group on Regional Conflicts of the Russian-American Dartmouth Conference, where I was previously ...
... which drives bilateral relations. Turkey is more assertive than it was during the Cold War and supports Baku, even going so far as to propose military interference, which was already the case in 1991-1994 with Turkish officers sent to train and support Azerbaijani troops.
For Turkey, it is a question of supporting an allied country, of showing solidarity with a Muslim country, and of confirming Turkish regional ambitions in the Middle East and the Black Sea. If Turkey intervenes militarily, the only two possible options ...
