...
Official nuclear powers are threatening not only each other but also to
middle powers and small states
. At least three out of the five NWSs (nuclear weapon states)—China, Russia and the US—have direct stakes in the region. However, the crippled arms control system has not been trilateralized as China has refused to be included in the configuration, nodding to its incomparably smaller nuclear arsenal. Notwithstanding the discovery of numerous silos in the PRC described further, Moscow and Washington’s stockpiles still surpass those of Beijing ...
... two global powers: the parameters of the world order, U.S. sanctions policy, competition between Asian-Pacific integration models, the economic, trade and technological rivalry between the two nations, as well as matters concerning global security and arms control. This analysis also considers U.S.– Chinese confrontation in terms of its potential negative and positive implications for Russia.
U.S. Foreign Policy Towards China: Outlook and Implications for Russia
, 2.1 Mb
... jump-start a dialogue, at least at the ad hoc level.
An important background factor for the summit is the growing confrontation between the United States and China. Washington views Beijing as a more dangerous and difficult adversary than Russia. In arms control negotiations, China’s growing military capabilities are becoming an important variable. The Trump administration has tried to persuade Moscow to engage in a trilateral arms control discussion involving Beijing. The idea was rejected by both Eurasian powers. Biden’s ...
... events plays into the hands of the United States, as this situation will certainly prevent Europe and Russia from patching things up, thus making it very unlikely that the sanctions against Russia will be lifted.
Alexander Yermakov:
End of Nuclear Arms Control: Do Not Beware the Ides of March
Finally, the U.S. decision to abandon the INF Treaty was informed by the desire to contain China’s military potential. China is actively developing its own missile technologies, much to the chagrin of the United States, which seeks to put an end to this through various treaties. Having disencumbered itself from its obligations under the INF ...
... nuclear and conventional;
“Avangard” strategic missile system with hypersonic glide vehicle (since December 2019 [
5
]), it seems safe to say that it will most likely be explicitly nuclear.
Richard Weitz:
Even If New START Is Extended, Strategic Arms Control Will Die Unless China Is Involved in New Treaties
Quite a lot have been said about a third system: “Tsirkon” sea- and ground-launched hypersonic missile. It might be declared operational in a few years.
As we are obviously entering the ‘hypersonic era’, being ...
... credibly, that their weapons do not threaten other countries. A more recent argument one hears in Beijing is that it's impractical and too complex to enlarge these treaties. The Chinese also accuse the U.S. of trying to shift the blame for the collapse of arms control on China.
Nonetheless, even if New START is extended, strategic arms control will die unless China is involved in these treaties. The U.S. Senate is hardly likely to ratify another such treaty without some limits on China’s arsenal. And I think it is possible ...
... In the new environment, even those countries that are signatories to the MTCR are interested in obtaining prompt global strike technologies.
The current leaders of hypersonic weapons research are, in addition to Russia, the United States and China.
China
Andrey Kortunov:
Is There Life After Arms Control Death?
Despite its ambitious statements, China has not yet rolled out a reliable prototype of a hypersonic vehicle. Chinese engineers have developed the YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile, but the country’s military currently only ...
... (Russian)-American system, new strategic arms control mechanisms are likely to emerge.
It is not clear what these mechanisms will look like, but some elements are now certainly relics of the past. First, the bilateral Russian-American format of the arms control regime is giving way to a multilateral focus. Among other issues, the U.S. is increasingly concerned with China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities. In fact, when criticizing the INF Treaty, Trump administration officials have focused more on the fact that the treaty imposes no limitations on China’s nuclear forces....
