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Fyodor Lukyanov on how the war in Ukraine changed life in Russia but not in the world. Had the decisive Minsk talks taken place a week later, everything could have wrapped up in style. It would have been exactly twelve months since it all began on February 20, 2014, when the Maidan protest movement culminated ...
After the ceasefire negotiated in Minsk, a peace settlement in eastern Ukraine remains distant. Most of the points in the agreement, including Ukraine’s constitutional reform and the resumption of Kiev’s control over the entire Ukrainian-Russian border, will probably never be implemented. The most one can hope for is that the conflict is frozen and people stop dying. Even that, however, cannot be taken for granted, as continued fighting ahead of the ceasefire’s formal entry into ...
The new Minsk agreement is mainly a product of Europe’s fear of war and Ukraine’s rapidly deteriorating military, economic and political condition. The Germans and the French were jolted into ... ... Ukraine’s leadership had to choose between the Scylla of making a bad peace and the Charybdis of continuing a losing war. As for the Russians, freezing the conflict along the lines of engagement and making the “people’s republics” safe from ...
... Sadly, there are clear signs that this is happening, with Europe now beset by its most serious and deadly crisis in decades. In Ukraine, more than 5,000 people have been killed, over 10,000 more have been wounded, and 1.2 million have been forced from their ... ... stability in the region. Just look at where we are. The institutions established to support constructive interaction between Russia and the West are badly broken and appear incapable of addressing today’s core political, economic, and security issues....
... are maintained and if at the same time a long process of talks begins. At the same time both sides are counting on serious economic losses for each other, and consequently the situation is distinguished by the fact that the economic position in both Russia and Ukraine is becoming a serious factor in the political process. REUTERS/Mykola Lazarenko/Ukrainian Presidential Press Service Sergey Utkin: The Ukrainian Crisis: Russia’s Official Position and How the Situation Can Be Resolved Thus it is possible to state that the peace process itself will be optimal if it combines elements of all formats – the Geneva, Minsk and Normandy formats,...
Instead of a new Cold War, someday we could face a real, large-scale military conflict Since the crisis in Ukraine began, many have claimed that a new Cold War between Russia and the West already exists. This rhetoric, used even by high-profile politicians, in my opinion, is driven mostly by emotions and is meant to justify difficult positions taken by one or the other side. I am convinced that no Cold War of the type ...
... of NATO and will host on their soil US troops as well as elements of the ballistic missiles defense, while middle-eastern instability, especially coming from Syria, tend to spread to the Caucasus[26]. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the current Ukrainian crisis is a new attempt by the Euro-Atlantic community, after the 2004 Orange revolution, to expand its influence to Ukraine regardless of the Russian interests. The chronical instability on Russia’s southern flank, whether it comes from political tensions with the Euro-Atlantic community, which resulted in an increasing NATO naval activity in the Black Sea since February 2014, or from ...
In light of the events in Ukraine, the situation in Transnistria (the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic) may seem rosy. Although this takes nothing away ... ... an Association Agreement between Moldova and the European Union; and the policy of the new regime in Kiev, for which the pro-Russian enclave in Transnistria is as much of a thorn in its side as the breakaway Donbas region. The creation of a free trade ...
... parties to the conflict towards closer interaction within the Russia – Ukraine – European Union triangle. In the longer perspective, we are moving toward a Greater Europe, a common economic space from Lisbon to Vladivostok, and the current Ukrainian crisis has merely slowed down this historical process but cannot stop it. Let us note parenthetically that creation of a common space consisting of both Ukraine and Russia appears to be the most realistic option for moving forward on the “Crimean question”, which is extremely sensitive for all the parties to the conflict. That is why the Ukrainian crisis is, at the end of the day, “a family affair” ...
... with the West over the past few decades. Nevertheless, progress in this area is possible and can be helped by the significant losses being incurred by several EU countries as a result of the sanctions and the “informational overload” on the Ukrainian crisis. REUTERS / Maxim Shemetov Savur-Mohyla Military Confrontation This scenario assumes that the military and political conflict in south-eastern Ukraine will continue to grow, with the possible direct or indirect involvement of Russia and the United States and its NATO allies. We are talking here about the breakdown of the Minsk Process or a partial breach of its clauses. The various interpretations of what the conflicting sides consider to be in accordance with, or in violation ...
| U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements |
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| U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity |
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| U.S. wants to dissolve Russia |
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| U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China |
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