Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future
... crucial source of legitimacy for any potential Ukrainian leader. At the same time, this scenario entails the continuation and even an intensification of the confrontation between Russia and the West. The economic sanctions of the United States and the European Union will be retained and expanded. An arms race will start in Europe without any effective measures for building up confidence, and certainly without new treaties on arms control. Russia–NATO interaction will be limited to formal contacts ...