Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future

... forward. Ukraine, however, did not become a “failed state,” did not declare a default on its foreign debt, and did not abandon its course for a liberal market economy. The Minsk agreements are, for the most part, not being implemented. People in Donbass continue to die, but there is no major military escalation in the east of Ukraine: the Donbass militia did not attempt to take Mariupol, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not start a large-scale offensive against Donetsk. Moscow and Kiev trade ...