Apparently, the most rational course of action for the United States may be a "hit and see" approach
The concentration of US military forces in the Persian Gulf has sparked discussions about the possibility of a new military operation against Iran. International relations are difficult to predict. However, the development of the situation can be viewed as a set of alternative scenarios. A military operation is one of them.
Zamir Ahmed Awan:
Attack on Iran: A Gamble that U.S. Cannot Afford...
... Eastern war.
Domestic Politics: A Powerful Restraint
Ivan Timofeev:
JCPOA Crisis: Balance of Power Returns
Domestic political realities in both the United States and Israel are acting as powerful brakes on military adventurism.
In the U.S., President Donald Trump faces intense scrutiny ahead of the November mid-term elections. Public appetite for another overseas conflict is low, and bipartisan skepticism about unilateral military action is growing. Large-scale protests, political polarization, and ...
The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure mark a notable recalibration of Washington’s Middle East policy
The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure mark a notable recalibration of Washington’s Middle East policy. In recent years, the United States has sought to avoid direct involvement in armed conflicts. While maintaining a military presence and alliances with most regional actors, Washington aimed to reduce costs and redirect resources toward other strategic priorities...
... sanctions would be premature; unlike trade policy tools, sanctions remain primarily instruments of foreign policy.
Andrey Kortunov:
Can U.S. New Tariffs Trigger Structural Changes in Global Economy?
One of the most consequential moves at the start of Donald Trump’s second term was the sweeping increase in US import tariffs. The new policy targeted nearly all trading partners, with additional duties imposed on over seventy countries. This aggressive escalation– dubbed a “trade war against the ...
... Moscow should have had not only anxieties, but also serious concerns about its possible outcomes. The pathway to the White House was carefully paved for Zelensky by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer; both visited Donald Trump prior to their Ukrainian colleague and both tried hard to convince the US leader to extend maximum support to Kyiv despite earlier Trump’s statements about his intention to cut a “deal” with Vladimir Putin. So, what if Zelensky, being ...
Still, the Trump plan in its current form is only half-baked
Finally, after many leaks, hints, intimations and procrastinations, US President Donald Trump might have come up with something a bit more specific than his initial general promises to put an end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 24 hours. For the first time a draft of his peace plan is on the table. The plan was revealed by various ...
... longer.
The US foreign policy shifts will, in their turn, inevitably affect, albeit in uneven and sometimes even not yet predictable ways, all the nations on our planet. Personality differences between still acting President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump could hardly be any sharper. Biden spent most of his adult life as a professional politician who matured during the Cold War and is used to look for diverse foreign challenges and outside threats rising around the United States.
Trump made ...
... Russia continue its “business as usual” aimed at maintaining the existing status-quo or will it be forced to review and to revise its positions towards Israel, Palestinians, Iran and its main partners in the Arab world?
The spectacular comeback of Donald Trump to the White House will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the US overall international positioning, as well as on specific dimensions of the US approaches to various regions of the world. Of course, the US foreign policy has a bipartisan ...
... 1990s under the Clinton Administration. To use a well-known quote from the days of the Bourbon restoration to the French throne after the Napoleonic wars, one can state that Washington strategists “have learned nothing and have forgotten nothing.” Donald Trump, despite apparent differences with Joseph Biden on specific foreign policy issues, shares with the latter the overall picture of the world, where the United States should remain the ultimate decision-maker like it seemed to be some thirty ...
.... president is unlikely to play a big role in Russian-American relations
The approaching US presidential election is once again giving rise to discussions about who is best for Russia. Once again, there is a temptation to view Republican candidate Donald Trump as a more acceptable politician for Moscow. Trump says he hasn’t ruled out a “deal” with Russia. His thinking is transactional. He stands for promoting the national interests of his country, but in words he is ready for deals: we are ...
