Search: Forecasts (40 materials)


Principal Trends in the Development of Eurasian Integration

Emerging trends include the improved quality of integration and the shaping of the Union as a pragmatic and responsible partner The development of the Eurasian Economic Union in 2019 was once again marked by deepening integration and the expansion of global trade and economic relations. Emerging trends include the improved quality of integration and the shaping of the Union as a pragmatic and responsible partner involved in international relations as an independent actor. Elena Kuzmina: Free Trade...


2020 Forecast: Revealing the Future of the Middle East

The impeachment process of US President Donald Trump and the US role in the MENA region would determine the future of conflicts in many countries starting from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and the future government in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, Turkey and Iran “When I thought I had already reached the bottom, they knocked from below.” — Stanislaw Jerzy Lec This quote of the polish aphorist and poet of the 20 th century, Stanislaw Jerzy Lec, serves as a perfect epigraph to this in-depth 2020 forecast...


Challenges to International Stability in 2020–2025

... manipulate these players by states are likely to be counterproductive and dangerous. 4. Climate change and environmental degradation. It is hard to assess the geopolitical implications of the global climate change for the period of 2020–2025; most forecasts predict the real impact to come later. However, the first signs of uncontrolled and potentially disastrous environmental and climate changes, mounting challenges to biodiversity, environmental stability and resource sufficiency will manifest ...


War & Peace: Russia in 2020

2019 was a good year for Russia. 2019 was a good year for Russia. The country rejoined the Council of Europe, the first case of sanctions being lightened since 2014. It confirmed the country’s commitment to the Paris climate agreement. It welcomed close to fifty African leaders to the inaugural Russia-Africa summit in Sochi. Moscow even made progress with Kyiv, although less as a result of Russian diplomacy than the efforts of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. Andrey Kortunov, Director General of...


What to Expect in 2020 for Russia–US Relations

... politicians in the United States have warned and stated without evidence that "Russia will be back in 2020" to "interfere" and "undermine American democracy." The problem is — there is not much reason to believe these forecasts of doom and discord will come to fruition. Russia will likely be absent from the 2020 presidential election in the same way it was missing from the 2017 German elections , the 2018 US midterms , and the most recent UK general election. In ...


The Trans-Caucasus in 2019 Is Not a Monolithic Region

... for its territorial integrity, non-interference in its domestic affairs and pragmatic economic cooperation. Naturally, China incurs no losses, its primary objective being to implement its strategic “One Belt — One Road” project. Past and Current Forecasts Azerbaijan: Effective Ties and Pragmatics In his article “Azerbaijan in 2021: Reasserting Sovereignty”, Murad Gassanly stated that the Karabakh issue was the key one on Baku’s political agenda. And this issue remains such today. Azerbaijan’s ...


Russia–EU Relations in 2020: Opportunities, Limitations and Possible Trends

Speaking notes for the European Meeting of the Trilateral Commission Any attempt to predict the development of Russia–EU relations in the upcoming years must certainly acknowledge the fact that relations between the two sides have remained remarkably stable since 2014, and the momentum of current dynamics (or, instead, the momentum of no dynamics) will most likely continue. 2019 marked European Parliament elections, the “overhaul” of the European Commission and other EU governing bodies, as well...


Russia-Ukraine Relations 2020: Equation With Many Variables. A View from Russia

If everything goes as prescribed, the 2020 will become a year of developing and implementing conflict resolution strategies and mediating processes The forecast for the Ukraine is one of the most ungrateful tasks for a political expert. The quantity of variables in this equation is so high, that only artificial intellect with plenty of facts and figures uploaded will be able to solve it in the nearest future. The current situation in internal politics and overall in the regional dimension in Europe...


Analysis of Future Warfare

... predictions create an “illusion of realization”: their descriptions of future phenomena and processes are incredibly general, so the probability of such scenarios being implemented is fairly high. However, if we add a handful of details to such forecasts, they will immediately become nothing but fantasies. This can be explained by probability theory. Each detail in description has its probability of being realized, and a combination of such details, conjoined by the Boolean operator AND, will ...


RIAC Forecast 2019–2024

RIAC Experts on Global Issues In this project, we gather the opinions of Russian experts on Russia’s foreign policy with regard to individual countries, the situation in individual regions, and the specifics of the development of the key functional areas in international relations. The first Chapter “ Global Governance and World Order ” is available now. — Fyodor Lukyanov , #MeFirst against Strategic Stability — Sergey Afontsev , The Future of Global Economic Governance — Valery Garbuzov...


Poll conducted

  1. In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
    U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements  
     33 (31%)
    U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity  
     30 (28%)
    U.S. wants to dissolve Russia  
     24 (22%)
    U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China  
     21 (19%)
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