... significant strings attached. Trump expects the new Syrian authorities to take steps that are quite problematic for them. For example, during a surprise meeting with Syria’s new president on May 14, the U.S. leader
urged
him to normalize relations with Israel (potentially by joining the Abraham Accords or striking a new deal). This is a particularly difficult move, as it is likely to provoke a backlash from radicals within HTS and even among ordinary Syrians, potentially leading to a new escalation ...
... establishing federalism is not exclusively an Iraqi initiative; instead, it can be associated with international and regional strategies that aim to reorganize Baghdad's political system to suit certain needs of certain actors. The United States, Iran, and Israel view such a reform as an instrument that could be used to further their own interests. In the main centers of decision-making, the questions were not if federalism will occur but rather when, how, and who would gain the most from restructuring ...
... gradual economic recovery. However, Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 meant a new wave of threats. In his first month back in office, Trump
gave
Iran a two-month deadline to make concessions or face a firm response.
The second reason is Israel’s aggressive and expansionist policy. Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, long
described
Israel as a colonial-settler project created by the West, inherently driven to expand by seizing territory from neighboring Muslim ...
On March 25, 2025, an expert discussion “Russian-Israeli relations and regional context” was held. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) in cooperation with Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IOS RAS) organized the meeting
On March 25, 2025, an expert discussion ...
Israel risks repeating Iran's mistakes by opening a new front in Syria while having conflicts in multiple fronts
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza following Operation "Al-Aqsa Flood" and the escalation of tensions on the Lebanese border ...
... about two-thirds of the population, needed assistance before the fighting intensified.
Ivan Bocharov:
Conflict in the Middle East: Possible Regional Implications
In recent months, the humanitarian situation in the conflict zone between the State of Israel and Hezbollah has deteriorated. Attacks on Israeli settlements by the Shiite movement have resulted in the evacuation of at least 60 000 Israelis.
Already turbulent situation in Lebanon was aggravated by the escalation in autumn. In recent weeks,...
... strong and practically invulnerable exactly until the very moment when their rapid and uncontrolled disintegration begins.
The shock of what is happening in Syria is comparable, if not greater, than the emotional effect of the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7 last year. The two phases of the regional crisis are closely linked; it would not be an exaggeration to say that December 2024 has become a direct, albeit postponed in time, continuation of October 2023. Without the successful Israeli ...
Will Russia continue its “business as usual” aimed at maintaining the existing status-quo or will it be forced to review and to revise its positions towards Israel, Palestinians, Iran and its main partners in the Arab world?
The spectacular comeback of Donald Trump to the White House will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the US overall international positioning, as well as on specific dimensions of ...
... history erupted. It was provoked by an oil embargo imposed by members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), as well as Egypt and Syria. The embargo was targeted against the United States and its allies who were assisting Israel in the Doomsday War. The member-states of this Organization used economic tools to influence Israel's allies and support Egypt and Syria in the conflict with Israel. Such actions notably contrasted with the state of Iranian-Israeli relations, which ...
A vertical rather than horizontal escalation can be expected, involving other actors in the war
In the autumn of 2024, the situation in the Middle East sharply escalated. Sporadic exchanges between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, which had been observed since the October 7, 2023, attacks, evolved into active hostilities. On September 17–18, 2024, pagers and other means of communication belonging to Hezbollah members were detonated inside Lebanon. Israel then launched ...
