... the horizon, which does not make them less ominous, though. The second category of time-delayed consequences of the currently unfolding international events includes the growing threat of nuclear proliferation.
Alexander Vorontsov:
How to Interpret North Korea’s Nuclear Forces Policy Act?
There is nothing unexpected in this escalation: a minimum level of mutual trust and predictability among great powers, primarily among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, has always been a ...
The growing US-Japanese-South Korean military cooperation inevitably leads to stronger China-Russia-North Korea ties
The Russian-North Korean negotiations this month have provoked a lot of hype, particularly in the West. It is assumed by the West that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's trip might indicate a profound change in Moscow's overall approach ...
... preceding legal acts had been rather brief, failing to disclose important provisions and specifics in respect to nuclear weapons. At major Track II diplomacy conferences as well as in other situations, we often heard the following remarks addressed to North Korean representatives: if you claim to be a nuclear state, then at least present your nuclear doctrine to the global community, which all members of the “nuclear five” have developed and which would define the nature, objectives, functions,...
А sharp escalation of tension may occur in the near future
The belligerent statements that the United States, North Korea and South Korea have been making about each other over the past few weeks, and the steps they have taken to mobilise their existing arsenals, suggest that a sharp escalation of tension may occur in the near future.
In March 2022, Pyongyang ...
... with refugees. But the social burden on the economy can still be significant. In addition, Moldova is facing a significant increase in fuel prices, which will also inevitably affect economic growth.
Finally, two other neighbouring countries, Iran and North Korea, should be mentioned. Tehran has a unique window of opportunity. The risk of a shortage of oil in the world market may force the US to make some indulgences in the sanctions regime. Iran may take an initially tough stance and then reduce its ...
... current state of severe economic turbulence prefers a dominant, state-controlled, centralized economy, while experiments with market economy are phased out
Over the past two or three years, media outlets all across the globe have been emphasizing North Korea’s growing isolation from the outside world, marking the country’s inevitable economic slump, which may potentially lead to the dissolution of the state.
The economic siege appears to come from two fronts: international sanctions and sanctions ...
On June 11, 2021, Ivan Timofeev, Director of Programs, Russian International Affairs Council, spoke at the webinar “Prospect for Progress on North Korea and Northeast Asian Security” held by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP).
On June 11, 2021, Ivan Timofeev, Director of Programs, Russian International Affairs Council, spoke at the webinar “Prospect for Progress ...
The Russia-China proposal for a “double freeze” settlement remains the most feasible solution, although far from ideal
Analytical pieces—typically prepared by self-professed experts—abound as to whether denuclearization of North Korea could be possible or what its parameters would be. Such ruminations became particularly popular by the end of Donald Trump’s presidency when the negotiations eventually found themselves in deadlock. However, I would rather call it a “freeze,...
... open-source intelligence (OSINT), no human intelligence (HUMINT) has been involved in the process. For further information, please do not hesitate to contact the author at michael.lambert@insead.edu.ReutersThe Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) is often described as a country cut off from the rest of the world1, despite the growing Internet penetration and digitalization of services in Pyongyang2. Although citizens are not allowed to leave the state without permission from the authorities,...
... India and Pakistan through arms control on the U.S.-Soviet model was impossible due to geographical proximity and territorial issues, the general power imbalance between the two countries, and the asymmetrical strategic position of India and Pakistan.
North Korea, which developed its nuclear weapons and long-range missiles in the 21st century, presented another problem. Its arrival as a nuclear-armed state sent the message that any country whose leadership was determined to go nuclear and was prepared ...
