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No War on Iran If Rouhani “Makes the Call” His Call Could Trigger the Firing of Bolton, Pompeo, and Perhaps Abrams Robert Steele as interviewed by Javad Heirannia Q. You were interviewed by Russian national television recently, contradicting everything the ...
This original RIAC post is superceded by the article as published by various outlets, here also at RIAC: Article as Published: No War on Iran If Rouhani “Makes the…It has been an honor for me to be welcomed to the RIAC blog, and an education for me to be exposed to the thinking of so many who are not heard in the USA but represent the civilization, history, and intellect of Mother ...
... new proactive president in the White House have slowly been eclipsed by a sense of confusion, given United States behavior that shows little consistency and no clear strategic objectives. President Obama, apart from striving for an agreement with Iran, limited his involvement in the Middle East, but was forced to direct new attention to the region due to the Islamic State challenge. In the election campaign, Trump also spoke in favor of limiting United States intervention in various world arenas....
... the Saudi King. The Syrian conflict has de-escalated dramatically thanks to the Russian participation and diplomacy. Furthermore, Donald Trump came to power promising less US commitment to allies and specifically NATO. Also there is the signature of Iran Nuclear Deal by world powers. As follows, I will discuss each of the above and highlight their direct impact on Russia-Saudi rapprochement and future of Middle-East Politics in general. The Russian direct participation in Syria’s conflict has changed ...
..., and should be based at home. There is a geographic perspective missing from US foreign and national security policy. The President is allowing too much of his time to be consumed by a focus on distant enemies who are either not really our enemy (Iran) or not our problem (North Korea). Then there are the near “enemies” so absurd as to defy intelligent belief – Cuba and Venezuela. Below is my view of five priorities in national policy – the Home Front above all else, followed by the Americas ...
Although US and Iranian diplomatic strategy compartmentalized the Iran nuclear negotiations in order to reduce the risk of failure on this priority issue, these governments’ regional disputes were inevitably going to return to the fore and threaten the sustainability ...
... continue to exacerbate the already deep-seated, multifaceted struggle for authority between the KRG and the Iraqi central government. The referendum faces strong opposition from the central government in Baghdad as well as the neighboring states of Iran and Turkey who have expressed concerns that independence could inspire separatist claims from their own Kurdish populations. Opposition to Kurdish independence could further exacerbate tensions between these countries, which have been historically ...
... two last major strongholds, and in the process of being encircled in its other stronghold in Raqqa, Syria, its “capital;” furthermore, not only does Assad’s government have the active of support of the Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah and of Iran’s military on the ground (among other Shiite militias), but it also enjoys the robust military support of Russia and its vaunted air force. And even though Assad’s military has been whittled to down a shell of its former self (even his Syrian ...
India has numerous foreign policy priorities, with ties with the US, China, Russia and Pakistan understandably receiving more attention. At this point of time, one of the greatest challenges which India faces, however, is its relations with Iran. Post the signing of the P5+1 signed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA) commonly known as Iran nuclear deal, New Delhi has sought to strengthen its economic and strategic ties with Tehran. The key conditions of the agreement were; that Iran ...
Sectarian warfare is not a very new issue in the Islamic world because for decades Saudi-Arabia and Iran wish to dominate the Islamic globe, Iran exports the Shiite Islamic revolution doctrines and Saudi-Arabia the Wahabistic Islamic tenets to the Muslim world, unfortunately, both countries enjoy rich oil reserves and miss-using petrol-bucks to lead ...
The alleged “existential crisis” has been linked to the populist upheaval that drove a simple majority of Britons to vote to leave the EU. The Telegraph, The Guardian, CNN, Money, and social media say that's what we should believe, and that thet “existential crisis” exists among Brexiteers in Great Britain too. Just ask new Tory foreign secretary and super Toff, Boris Johnson, who just last year (born in the USA, BoJo was a dual national) renounced his US citizenship...
... While the Tashkent summit was a crucial step closer to membership for India and Pakistan, the summit proved to not be nearly as successful for another regional player. Despite its return to the global stage following the removal of UN sanctions, Iran’s reception at the summit did not live up to its expectations. Iran’s history with the SCO is complicated. The country has observer status with the organization and first applied for membership in 2008. At the time, Iran’s membership ...
... highly sophisticated military equipment. Possible transfers of SA-22 surface-to-air missiles to Hezbollah might have far fetching implications for the regional security balance. This is exactly why Putin has halted the transfer of the S-300 missiles to Iran. Despite the fact that Russia currently enjoys warm relations with Tehran their paths will imminently diverge in the future. Moscow is concerned with its pro-Shia imagery in the predominantly Sunni region as it directly impinges its soft power....
... through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Photo from: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/yemen4.htm To continue to the more interesting angles, many other players are involved. For instance, there are recurrent allegations against Iran for providing weapons and training to the Houthis, in an attempt to use Yemen for a proxy war against the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, which are traditionally the champions of the Sunnah. Although, in all fairness the Iranian government firmly ...
.... Even Russian Federation, despite its stagnating economy, is still gradually producing oil. The world is drowning in oil as supply of oil exceeds demand for at least 1 million barrels per day. Making matters worse, the elimination of sanctions from Iran, will lead them to supply solid amount of additional oil to the world market. This will clearly push the prices of oil down. World major oil market players should reach an agreement and cut production of oil, in order to push the prices up. However,...
... Reuters and CNN buzzed up a tenuous agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to freeze oil output at current “maximum” production levels( no reduction in production). But this initiative can't move forward without the approval of Iran, who want to increase production and earn hard currency. What the media claimed to be a "done deal" will never become operational because it is just talk, social conversation. Iran will never agree to align with its enemy Saudi Arabia and ...
... China as a major polluter, no city in China is on the "Top 20." India has the distinction of having 13 cities among the "Top 20" Most Polluted Cities" list developed by the WHO. .Pakistan has 3, Turkey, Qatar, Bangladesh and Iran each have one on the list. Ironically, western business media has been buzzing up India as the "rockstar" of the Asian economy. heaping praise on prime minister Narendra Modi for policies that now have the nation growing faster than ...
... myopic side, you have Putin thinking that risking the ire of almost all the Sunni governments, Sunni people, and Sunni jihadists by helping Shiite Alawite Assad massacre mainly Sunni rebels and civilians with the help of Shiite Hezbollah and Shiite Iran just for Russia's having a naval base on Syria’s coast and a few new bases inside Syria as well as a client in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who accounts for roughly 10% of global Russian arms sales is worth it (oh, and there’s ...
... been the Assad regime: though secular in ideology (Ba'athist), it is headed by Arab Alawite (a sect of Shiite Islam that is a small minority in Syria) Bashar al-Assad and is controlled mainly by Alawate Shiites. It is backed by Shiite Persian Iranians and the Arab Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Sunni Muslims, in general, do not like Shiites, and that is an understatement; many Sunnis do not even consider Shiites to be Muslims. That is why so much money from rich Gulf countries like Saudi ...
... intervention. Qaddafi, alone and isolated and ruling over a far smaller population, was a relatively easy target. Compared to Qaddafi’s regime, Assad’s military was much stronger and, unlike Qaddafi’s, had strong patrons in Russia and Iran who would complicate and increase the costs of any Western intervention and made the prospects of any success for the Syrian people on their own quite dim. Some powers talked of intervening in Syria, but with the U.S. signaling no appetite for direct ...
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| Demilitarization of the region based on Russia-China "Dual Freeze" proposal |
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| Restoring multilateral negotiation process without any preliminary conditions |
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| While the situation benefits Kim Jong-un's and Trump's domestic agenda, there will be no solution |
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| Armed conflict still cannot be avoided |
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| Stonger deterrence on behalf of the U.S. through modernization of military infrastructure in the region |
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| Toughening economic sanctions against North Korea |
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Andrey Melville, Alexey Barabashev, Alexander Obolonsky, Riccardo Mario Cucciolla
Paul Berkman , Oran Young, Alexander Vylegzhanin
Ian Kearns
