Military-Technical Tango
Vladimir Putin meets Kristina Kirshner during
his visit to Argentina. July, 2014
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PhD in History, Expert on Latin America expert, RIAC expert
Ph.D. in Political Science, expert at the Centre for Crisis Society Studies (Centero), RIAC expert
Against the background of a widely discussed rapprochement between Russia and the countries of Latin America, the world’s media has started to publish increasingly frequent reports on Russia’s efforts to boost military cooperation with the region, in particular with Argentina. Numerous rumors about the recent sale of 12 Russian Su-24 fighter-bombers to Argentina sparked concern in the British Government, to the point that it was suggested that more Typhoon fighters should be deployed on the disputed Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas).
Against the background of a widely discussed rapprochement between Russia and the countries of Latin America, the world’s media has started to publish increasingly frequent reports on Russia’s efforts to boost military cooperation with the region, in particular with Argentina. Numerous rumors about the recent sale of 12 Russian Su-24 fighter-bombers to Argentina sparked concern in the British Government, to the point that it was suggested that more Typhoon fighters should be deployed on the disputed Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) [1].
Whether Russian President Vladimir Putin really discussed possible deliveries of Russian combat aircraft with Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner during his visit to Buenos Aires in July 2014 remains unclear. However, the facts suggest that such cooperation could be a logical continuation of the countries’ enhanced relations, which were established 130 years ago.
New market – New World
Argentina, like Venezuela, is not one of the arms markets that modern Russia inherited from the Soviet Union. Bilateral relations have gained momentum only in the last decade, due to the changes in the local political landscape. The number of summits held testifies to the pace at which relations with Argentina have developed. Before 2000, the leaders of Argentina had visited the USSR and Russia just three times, but since then, there have been two visits by Argentine Presidents to Russia (Nestor Carlos Kirchner in 2004 and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in 2008) and two visits by Russian Presidents to Argentina (Dmitry Medvedev in 2010 and Vladimir Putin in 2014).
Bilateral relations have gained momentum only in the last decade, due to the changes in the local political landscape.
The foundations for military-technical cooperation were laid in 2004, during a meeting in Moscow when Vladimir Putin and Nestor Kirchner signed the relevant agreement. The agreement was ratified two years later [2], and was followed by the first scandal involving the purchase of arms. A couple of months after the vote in the Argentine parliament, influential Argentine newspaper La Nacion drew attention to what Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov had said after meeting with his Argentine counterpart Nilda Garré [3]. Ivanov reportedly said that Nilda Garré handed him a list of weapons that Argentina wanted to buy from Russia. The local mostly pro-American media rained down criticism on Nilda Garré. Although some hours later her press secretary denied the alleged intention to buy weapons freom Russia, and the minister herself clarified that the list included proposals for joint projects in the sphere of military-technical cooperation, this did little to quench passions.
The first deal for the purchase of Russian military equipment was concluded just four years later, during Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Argentina in 2010. The contract was for the sale of two high quality, cost-effective Russian Mi-8 transport helicopters (Mi-171E export modification) worth a total of 22 million euros. Deal expenses were covered by a loan granted by a Russian bank. There were neither problems nor delays in delivering on the contract, and in November 2011 the Russian-made helicopters joined the Argentine Air Force 7th Aviation Brigade’s Special Operations Air Group, replacing outdated Bell 212 helicopters. They are currently used for search and rescue as well as logistics operations in Antarctica.
MI 171, Argentine Air Force
In 2011, Argentina’s Air Force Commander, Brigadier General Normando Constantino said that the Defense Ministry was considering buying more Mi-17 helicopters, as the country needed more than two to support its presence in Antarctica effectively.
In March 2012, Sergey Goreslavsky, head of the International Operations and Marketing Department at Russian Technologies (Rostec) State Corporation revealed at the Fidae-2012 airshow in Santiago (Chile) that Argentina planned to purchase “more Mi-17 helicopters and expressed an interest in Ka-226T light multi-role helicopters.” The official noted then that the date on which the contract for delivery of three more helicopters would be signed was being negotiated, while the Marketing Director of Russian Helicopters named Argentina, along with Mexico and Brazil, as the company’s key priority market in the Latin American region.
However, Russia also enhanced its cooperation with markets in other countries in the region, and the contract with Argentina for more helicopters was shelved again. That country’s numerous economic problems have thus far prevented it from meeting the armed forces’ need for modernization. The goals of returning the Malvinas and the struggle for Antarctica remain, but the state of the army prevents any successful promotion of the country’s national position on these issues: the aircraft it has in its fleet were built in the 1960-1970s. The Falklands War further delayed military modernization. As a result, six Mirage III, four Mirage 5 and four Israeli-modernized Mirage 5 - IAI Nesher aircraft are currently in service with Argentina’s Air Force [4].
The first deal for the purchase of Russian military equipment was concluded just four years later, during Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Argentina in 2010. The contract was for the sale of two high quality, cost-effective Russian Mi-8 transport helicopters (Mi-171E export modification).
In terms of military equipment, Argentina is a long way behind long-time rival Great Britain, which has launched a new aircraft carrier and in January 2015 revealed plans to significantly strengthen the disputed islands’ anti-aircraft defense (in particular, replacing obsolete systems with more modern Patriot BMC4I [5] by 2016). However, it is also lagging a long way behind its neighbors, such as Chile, which has the best-trained and most modern armed forces on the continent, and Brazil, which claims the status of a world power and has become a significant arms exporter. In 2014, the decision was made to increase the 2015 defense budget by 43 percent [6]. However, these allocations do not cover major purchases of new equipment: 80 percent of this expenditure will be on personnel training and maintenance, leaving no money for technical equipment.
Prospects
During last fall’s discussion of Argentina’s 2015 budget, local media raised the issue of replacing obsolete aircraft [7]. Any government decision on this issue would trigger criticism. Rumors of any arms purchases trigger criticism of the government for neglecting social issues. If these rumors are refuted, the government is reminded of its outdated weaponry.
In the near future Argentina is set to purchase
four Neftegaz-class seagoing tugs from Russia
in a contract worth over eight million dollars
References to Russia or China in this context engender heated debates in the local media. Nevertheless, the intention of renewing the aircraft fleet and modernizing the air-defense system remains. The 2013 appointment of Air Force veteran of the 1982 war Mario Callejo as Argentina’s Air Force Commander generated hope that the country had moved beyond the impasse described above. In October 2014, Argentina’s Defense Minister Agustín Rossi announced plans to buy 24 Swedish Saab Gripen NG fighters, which won the Brazilian bid for the purchase of multipurpose fighters. They will be made under license in Brazil.
However, this was not the first statement of this kind. According to Former Defense Minister Horacio Jaunarena, “First, they announce plans to buy used Mirage fighters in Spain, then – to buy similar aircraft in Israel, but it soon turns out that there is no money for it in the budget.” General Jaunarena turned out to be right. Argentina does not have the required $3 billion for the deal. The UK’s reaction was swift. London said that it would block the deal, as some Saab Gripen NG parts are British-made, due to Argentina’s continued reluctance to recognize UK sovereignty over the Malvinas.
That country’s numerous economic problems have thus far prevented it from meeting the armed forces’ need for modernization.
The issue of modernizing the Air Force and the country’s air defenses first and then the rest of the armed forces is a pressing one, but there is no money for it in the budget, and relations with the West are strained. In these circumstances, the government may well go against the wishes of the local political minority, and consider the possibility of signing contracts with Russia and China, who are willing to provide loans and discuss amenable approaches to any deals that are concluded. A case in point is the Pakistani-Chinese FC-1/JF-17 fighter-bomber, worth $15-25 million per aircraft (depending on the version), or the more advanced Russian Su-30 Su-30MK2 modification, which Venezuela is buying. Under the 2006 contract, Venezuela bought 24 Su-30MK2 fighters with weapons, spare parts, technical assistance and training for $1.6 billion, about $67 million per aircraft.
Negotiations with Russia regarding the purchase of Mi-26 heavy transport helicopters, armored personnel carriers and air defense radars have been held. Russia, under the circumstances, could help Argentina strengthen its air defense systems by supplying short to medium range Pantsir-S1 (NATO reporting name SA-22 Greyhound) systems and long range S-300 (NATO reporting nameSA-10 Grumble) systems.
In terms of military equipment, Argentina is a long way behind long-time rival Great Britain it is also lagging a long way behind its neighbors, such as Chile, which has the best-trained and most modern armed forces on the continent, and Brazil, which claims the status of a world power and has become a significant arms exporter.
Apart from the direct supply of such systems and equipment, there is the option of setting up the kind of offset programs that have become an integral part of military-technical cooperation worldwide [8].
Argentina continued its R&D activities even in the most difficult years, when funding for the armed forces was radically cut [9]. By submitting technical documentation or opening a joint venture to manufacture or repair military equipment in the buyer-country’s territory, Russia benefits long-term, expanding its markets and “attaching” the buyer to the product for a long time.
A number of joint ventures could be established in Argentina to make SA-22 Greyhound systems (currently discussions are underway regarding the creation of just such a joint venture with Brazil, but the agreement has not yet been concluded). This joint venture would help Russia relieve its production capacity and would be mutually beneficial for both parties. This would significantly diversify the current bilateral economic relations between Russia and Argentina, and increase the proportion of Russian exports of machinery, equipment and vehicles (8.5 per cent in 2013) in the broader structure of bilateral trade [10].
It should be noted that almost three years after the statement made by the Rosoboronexport representative at the FIDAE aerospace exhibition in Chile, Argentina has not shelved its plans to buy Mi-171 helicopters, and has said that “we are cooperating very closely with Russia.” In the near future Argentina is set to purchase four Neftegaz-class seagoing tugs from Russia in a contract worth over eight million dollars. Negotiations are underway to acquire the Tumcha, Neftegaz-51, Neftegaz-57 and the Neftegaz-61 vessels [11]. Argentina’s Defense Ministry plans to use these vehicles for logistics support for the country’s polar station in Antarctica, and to patrol the southern part of the Atlantic Ocean. By summer 2015, tugs may be transferred to the ownership of the War Department of Argentina and will sail in polar waters, including on patrol missions.
Time is running out
Military-technical cooperation is a very sensitive area, which is directly dependent on the political situation in both the exporting country and the importing country. Very often, political preferences exert more influence on a decision to purchase equipment than does price, specifications or even the possibility of gaining access to technology.
Argentina, which today is in the grips of severe socio-economic problems, is set to hold presidential elections in 2015. Under the Constitution, serving President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner cannot run for a third consecutive term. She will leave, leaving the country in a state of technical default. This difficult economic scenario has hit the pockets of ordinary citizens, drastically reducing their incomes, sparking mass public disorder and demonstrations, and dramatically affecting support for “Kirchnerism” in the country.
The issue of modernizing the Air Force and the country’s air defenses first and then the rest of the armed forces is a pressing one, but there is no money for it in the budget, and relations with the West are strained.
The elections that seem set to shape the country’s future political course will be held in October 2015, but the names of the presidential candidates are already known. Only one candidate promises to maintain the current course, while the three others favor radical change, including in the international arena.
Propuesta Republicana leader Mauricio Macri, whose stands a good chance of winning, said that Argentina “should not be part of the Bolivarian axis and must return to the world,” noting that he will not support “excessive inclination” towards China and Russia, and urged to intensify contacts with the United States and the EU [12].
There is little doubt that the election victory of one of the opposition candidates will greatly complicate relations between our countries in the field of military-technical cooperation, and Argentina, which under Kirchner declared Russia its strategic partner, will again turn its attention to used equipment from the United States, which it could acquire under mutual aid programs.
This would greatly limit the country’s military potential and will not solve the issue of the need to modernize the Air Force. But what use is an air force, if a country has no foreign policy ambitions?
1. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/549006/Falkland-Islands-defence-review-after-military-deal-between-Russia-and-Argentina
2. http://www.infoleg.gov.ar/infolegInternet/anexos/120000-124999/122132/norma.htm
3. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/853547-polemica-por-la-compra-de-armas-rusas
4. http://img.en25.com/Web/flightglobal/%7B05ceef25-b72e-4bea-9a83-a7ab7d02e55a%7D_FC078_PREM_201412.pdf?elq={00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000000}&elqCampaignId=
5. http://www.infodefensa.com/latam/2015/01/15/noticia-inte
6. http://infodefensa.com/archivo/files/141222_presupuesto_argentina_2015.pdf
7. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1728722-gobierno-estipula-un-gasto-de-mas-de-25-mil-millones-de-pesos-para-defensa-a-fin-de-modernizar-aviones-tanques-y-barcos
8. Western analytical agencies expect the total value of offset agreements in 2016 to reach the amount of approximately $500 billion.
9. M.S. Barabanov, K.V. Makienko, R.N. Puhov, A.L. Rybas. Voenno-tehnicheskoe sotrudnichestvo Rossii s zarubezhnymi gosudarstvami: analiz rynkov / Under the editorship of A.L. Rybas. Moscow, Nauka Publishers, 2008. p.172
10. http://economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/foreignEconomicActivity/201407103
11. http://korabli.qdg.ru/neftegaz/view/36/1/ http://korabli.qdg.ru/neftegaz/view/38/1/ http://korabli.qdg.ru/neftegaz/view/39/1/ http://korabli.qdg.ru/neftegaz/view/41/1/
12. http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1752050-macri-prometio-un-viraje-en-la-politica-exterior
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