Myanmar’s Future President: Candidate in Question

The formal opening sitting of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar’s parliament took place on February 1, 2016. It was attended by foreign diplomats and hundreds of journalists from both domestic and foreign media. The new parliament was convened after the opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won the 2016 general election in a landslide. After decades of being in peaceful opposition to the military regime, the NLD has become the ruling party.

The formal opening sitting of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar’s parliament took place on February 1, 2016. It was attended by foreign diplomats and hundreds of journalists from both domestic and foreign media. The new parliament was convened after the opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won the 2016 general election in a landslide. 80 % of the voters who came to the polling stations on November 8, 2015, cast their ballots for the NLD. After decades of being in peaceful opposition to the military regime, the NLD has become the ruling party. The latest elections were truly historical since, for the first time in 56 years, the legislative power was transferred peacefully to a legally elected parliament in accordance with the constitution. Previously, it happened in the spring of 1960.

The NLD received the absolute majority of seats in both chambers of the Union’s parliament: 59.4% out of 74.73 % (in accordance with the constitution, 25.27 % of seats were reserved for the military faction), the other 13 parties elected to parliament received less than 15.6%. Having won the parliamentary majority, the NLD now has the right to propose two candidates for presidency and to form the government during 120 days after the elections.

NLD president and Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi cannot run for president in accordance with the special article 59(f) of the constitution which the military junta passed in 2008 to make sure the leader of the opposition could not run for the top governmental office. This article states that people who are related to foreign nationals cannot take part in presidential elections. Aung San Suu Kyi’s late husband and her two sons are citizens of the United Kingdom.

The issue of amending the constitution, including amending the article on the president’s office, was put to vote twice by the previous parliament, and both times the military faction blocked it.

The army will likely retain its strong position. Today, Myanmar’s military are a powerful, well-organized, and influential body. The military faction which is appointed by the commander-in-chief essentially has the veto right in the parliament and can block any important decision, including constitution amendments. One of the three presidential candidates represents the army. The commander-in-chief also appoints such key ministers as the minister of defense, the minister for internal affairs, and the minister of border troops.

REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun
Aida Simoniya:
Aung San Suu Kyi on Foreign Land

At the moment, Aung San Suu Kyi and her party need to work together with the military. The prerequisites for this cooperation are there. For the first time in 27 years, the NLD and the military are negotiating. Chairperson Aung San Suu Kyi has already met twice with the commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and soon after the election, she met with former dictator Than Shwe who still retains his influence over the military and controls the developments in Myanmar.

The most suspenseful question of the next two months is the name of the country’s next president. Although the current constitution bars Aung San Suu Kyi from running, she can choose whom to name in her stead. Even though she retains the position of the leader of the ruling party and she will make decisions on all the issues, it is important for her to formally hold the office of the president in order to be able to head the National Defense and Security Council. The Council was established in 2011, it comprises 11 people and is headed by the president. Council members also include both vice-presidents, the commander-in-chief, his deputy, speakers of both chambers of the parliament, minister for foreign affairs, and the ministers of defense, internal affairs, and border troops. In accordance with the constitution, the National Defense and Security Council has significant powers; in particular, it has the right to propose that the president declare the state of emergency in the country. It is of vital importance for the leader of the ruling party to be a part of this governing body where six out of eleven members represent the military. However, Aung San Suu Kyi can become a member of the Council only as President or as the Minister for Foreign Affairs. Yet when the voters cast their ballots for the NLD, they essentially voted for Aung San Suu Kyi as the nation’s leader, and they will hardly be pleased should she become only a member of the government, although the people have no say in the matter at this stage.

However, lyrical musings aside, the office of the minister for foreign affairs would consume too much of Aung San Suu Kyi’s time and would not allow her to take part in the work of the parliament. Still, since her principal matter of concern is the county’s interests, since her party has the overwhelming parliamentary majority and both speakers are NLD members, it is possible that Aung San Suu Kyi will agree to work in the executive branch, i.e. in the government.

Looking back, we can recall that during the parliamentary democracy of the 1950s, Burma had three presidents, yet in fact its leader was the country’s prime minister U Nu, the leader of the-then ruling Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League, who made history. Currently, Myanmar has no prime minister, the government is formed by the president.

Upon his departure from power, former dictator Than Shwe created such a complicated series of hurdles for Aung San Suu Kyi that finding a way out is no easy job. Several of the NLD’s most experienced lawyers are looking at possible options, including introducing a special reservation into the constitution. Everything depends on an agreement with the military. This forces Aung San Suu Kyi and her party to conduct “parliamentary bargaining” with the army’s representatives, i.e. to hold behind-the-scene negotiations and to discuss various proposed demands. Burmese press writes about secret negotiations aimed at amending the constitution and at hammering out conditions for agreements, about meetings between the representatives of the army and the NLD held behind closed doors. Aung San Suu Kyi does not need the office of the president in order to satisfy her own ambitions; she does not even need it because the people who voted for the NLD want to see her as the head of state, but she needs it to be able to carry out her democratization policy without being blocked by old-time officials who recently demonstrate their adherence to the letter of the law.

The term of Thein Sein, the current holder of Myanmar’s presidency, expires on March 31, 2016.

The names of three candidates for presidency will be announced on March 17. A specially appointed parliamentary Presidential Electoral College, comprised of members from both chambers and the military faction, has to approve the proposed candidacies and to put them to the parliament’s vote. The candidate who receives the largest number of votes becomes president, the runners-up become vice-presidents. By the time the NLD announces the names, more than four months after the election will have passed. One can assume that the NLD is stalling, hoping for an agreement with the military regarding amendments to the constitution. One of the members of the NLD’s Central Committee confirmed that such negotiations are indeed underway, but it is hardly possible that the parliament will amend the constitution during its very first year. In this case, an interim presidential candidacy is possible for the transitional period, but this person has to be trustworthy.

It would be apt to remind the readers that five years ago, when the parliament was dominated by the Union Solidarity and Development Party which had been created and supported by the military, three candidates were announced on February 3, 2011, and Thein Sein was appointed president the next day.