The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV, drones) in combat operations is a reality of modern warfare. In particular, they are widely used by the US in Afghanistan and Pakistan to locate and destroy terrorists. How promising is the use of those devices, and how high is their efficacy from the military and political viewpoints?
Unexpectedly extensive use of UAVs in Afghanistan and in Pakistan’s border areas has become one of the distinctive features of modern warfare. In particular, in January 2012 they were helpful in destroying one of the leaders of the Pakistani Taliban from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan group, Hakimullah Mehsoud. All in all, from 2004 through 2011 more than 280 drone sorties were made in the northern parts of Pakistan, which took away the lives of about 1700-2700 people, both militants and civilian residents
The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV, drones) in combat operations is a reality of modern warfare. In particular, they are widely used by the US in Afghanistan and Pakistan for location and destruction of terrorists. How promising is the use of these devices, and how high is their efficacy from the military and political viewpoints?
Unexpectedly extensive use of UAVs in Afghanistan and in Pakistani border areas has become one of the distinctive features of modern warfare. In particular, in January 2012 they were helpful in destroying one of the leaders of the Pakistani Taliban from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan group, Hakimullah Mehsoud. In aggregate, from 2004 through 2011 more than 280 drone sorties were made in the northern parts of Pakistan which killed about 1700-2700 people, both militants and civilian residents. The exact number of such sorties without air attacks or loss of human lives remains unknown. The Pakistani authorities condemn the US air invasion into their sovereign air space that inflicts deaths of civilians. However, the American special services officers say they do not intend to suspend those operations as they ensure “the protection of American citizens”.
Drones: Practical Applications
Wide use of remotely controlled UAVs, primarily in reconnaissance missions, goes back to the times soon after the Second World War, the Cuban crisis, the war in Vietnam, and other confrontations between the USSR and the US.
The advantages of the technology were relatively small size and mobility of the drones which were more difficult to detect and destroy by air defense means. Besides, an outstanding UAV’s advantage is the operator security.
In fact, drones have become one of the most effective means of tactical air reconnaissance through remote image transmission to the HQ. To date, UAVs are domestically produced in more than 50 countries including the US, Great Britain, France, China and Israel. General Atomics, Northrop Grumman (USA), EADS – Talarion (EU), Elbit Systems (Israel) are among the largest UAV manufacturers. In 2005 the total UAV market value was estimated at two billion USD.
As the technology advanced, weight-lift ability and flying range of unmanned vehicles increased, which allowed their use both in reconnaissance and combat missions. One of the largest modern UAVs is the American Predator more than eight meters long with the takeoff weight of up to one ton capable of carrying various types of armament including missiles.
It enabled the US to employ large UAVs to deliver pinpoint attacks across the territory of foreign countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen. A non-existent risk of operator seizure in case of the UAV crash makes the drone an ideal instrument in operations conducted with the violation of other’s sovereignty. Tactically, the UAVs are well-suited for the destruction of individual terrorist leaders or small militant groups.
However, drone operations feature the same strategic weaknesses as the use of any aircraft: neither traditional nor guerilla war can be won by pinpoint air attacks. A traditional war requires an extensive use of ground forces to occupy the territory and to take over strategic facilities. In guerilla warfare an enemy is hard to detect through surveillance only, while an attempt to react to the obtained intelligence by pinpoint missile and bomb strikes may result in casualties among civilian population.
In Afghanistan the NATO forces put their stake on a wider use of airborne and ground operations alongside the reduced number of air raids. However, such approach is inapplicable in Pakistan where wider use of airborne operations would inevitably lead to the confrontation with the national army and law-enforcement forces. Pakistan authorities often face major problems in controlling the areas greatly influenced by radical Islamists from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistani, while foreign troops are unlikely to be allowed to operate there on the regular basis with impunity.
However, the US cannot abandon the operations in Pakistan because a large part of the Afghan Taliban strongholds are located therein, and Washington suspects national authorities in their covert support.
Limited Efficacy
The key problem of combat drones application is a high probability of error in selecting the target of an attack. For instance, it’s not always possible to tell a nomadic Pashto encampment from a terrorist camp in Northern Pakistan through air surveillance. At that, in a number of instances the in-flight view from an UAV is inferior to that of a manned aircraft, which enhances the likelihood of tragic and dangerous errors.
Let us remind the reader that in April 2011 an USAF drone operator’s mistake resulted in the death of American military. However, a manned aircraft is not immune to such errors either. In November 2011 an erroneous attack of NATO helicopters destroyed a Pakistani military checkpoint killing 25. The incident entailed a serious deterioration of the US-Pakistan relations and, in particular, a close-down of the Shamsi airbase which was as well used to fly drones.
Experience suggests that the most effective use of UAVs is practicable only in a combination of air and radio reconnaissance with the on-site HumInt. However, the Americans have failed to streamline ground reconnaissance in Pakistan. Early in 2011 local special services successfully identified and traced the US intelligence network in the country and in less than a year exposed two American master spies.
Since the time when the CIA and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan managed to reach a compromise and to tentatively align their joint efforts in counterterrorism the efficacy of the US UAV flights has dramatically increased. New principles of cooperation produced impressively good results in eliminating the militants: in the spring of 2011 the US drones wiped out more militants than over the same time periods before. Leaning on the US air support, Pakistan managed to carry out a number of operations against the extremists who threatened Islamabad. However, long-standing contradictions in the US-Pakistani relations disallowed further development of this cooperation.
Countering Drones and Their Capture
High mobility of the drones does not make them entirely invulnerable. Over the last 20 years the United States lost several dozens of UAVs, one of those is exhibited in the Belgrade military museum. During the military operation in Afghanistan there were several registered instances when the Taliban brought down American drones.
Another question which requires special consideration is whether mission control of a drone can be intercepted. There are known cases when images made by American drones were found in Taliban hideouts. In December 2011 Iran announced that it succeeded in intercepting control over an American spy drone.
However, the above success is not as significant as it may seem. Images transmitted by a UAV to the HQ are quite easy to intercept, which is known to enthusiasts as “satellite fishing”. Imagery data of the majority of the drones is transmitted via a conventional system of satellite communication; often sent in the clear because of a limited channel capacity.
A more difficult task is to force a drone to landing without the use of arms. Judging by the data reported by the US and Iran on the incident with the American drone in December, Iranian signalers managed both to detect a foreign spy aircraft and to jam its communication channel with the HQ and GPS signal. It caused a loss of bearings of the vehicle which rambled around until it ran out of fuel. Such method is labor-consuming, but it allows blocking the flights of enemy drones through jamming. Besides, it is instrumental if one needs to obtain UAV samples for research and replication, what Iran is now planning to do.
It is impossible to intercept control over an enemy drone and to use it as an offensive weapon in combat if the other side is unaware of the code used by the operator. It is entirely possible that the recently registered attempts to plant spy viruses into American UAV control systems are exactly focused on obtaining such data.
Thus, UAVs are an important military innovation fostering a meaningful change in the modern air warfare by keeping the operator away from the battlefield and substantially enhancing his safety. The most promising fields of the UAV application are the delivery of pinpoint attacks across the hostile territory and the conduct of short reconnaissance missions. However, judging by the experience of the operations carried out in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the effective use of drones requires the support of ground reconnaissance and airborne operations.
