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Alexander Yermakov

Research Fellow at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations under the Russian Academy of Sciences, RIAC expert

More than five years after the Muammar Gaddafi regime was overthrown, the United States Air Force has once again engaged targets in Libya, this time ISIS positions. These are not the same kind of sporadic air raids that were conducted in previous years, but a full-scale military campaign that will take several weeks at the very least.

 

In the course of the military intervention in the Libyan Civil War in 2011, which brought about the overthrow of the ruling regime, the United States provided leadership and was actively engaged only during the initial phase, from March 19 to 31. As a result of Operation Odyssey Dawn, the key governmental military facilities were destroyed, alongside the forces that could offer at least some resistance. That operation continued afterwards under NATO command as Operation Unified Protector, which formally lasted until October 31, and mostly involved Europeans. Gaddafi was killed on October 20, which, along with the fall of Sirte, disorganized the opposition of the former governmental forces and allowed NATO and the insurgents to declare victory.

 

 

U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa

 

 

However, as we all know, that victory did not bring peace and order to Libya – the victorious “revolution” immediately evolved into a new war between the winners, which formed two main blocs headquartered in Tobruk and Tripoli, respectively. In addition to the Islamist groups that operated there, the smell of blood and oil attracted ISIS, which redeployed some of its forces there from the Middle East and managed to partially subjugate the local radical groupings. ISIS had an estimated 5,000–6,000 militants in Libya as of early February. The general threat prompted the former opposing parties in the civil war to unite into the Government of National Accord(GNA) led by the Presidency Council, which were established after much hard work and effort following the international conference in Skhirat in December 2015.

 

Despite the alliance and support in the form of weapons, intelligence and special forces operations, the progress made by the new government has been limited, and the assault of the stronghold of Islamists, which is ironically the same town of Sirte, where the first civil war came to an end, has stalled. It is believed that the small but fortified “stronghold” has about 1,000 militants. So, in order to ensure a breakthrough, the United Nations had to engage in active operations again.

 

U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa

USS Wasp was standing by off the coast of Libya

 

As with the Odyssey Dawn campaign, the contingent involved is quite limited once again, at least for the time being. In 2011, the United States quite uncharacteristically began an aerial campaign without deploying at least one nuclear aircraft carrier – that role was performed by the USS Kearsarge (LHD-3) Wasp-class multipurpose amphibious assault ship. Incidentally, heavy amphibious assault ships of the United States Navy have virtually the same size and capabilities as light aircraft carriers of other countries [1]. Currently, the main role is being carried out by another Wasp-class amphibious assault ship, the USS Wasp (LHD-1), which entered the Mediterranean on July 15 and immediately took part in Exercise Noble Shirley. It had been expected that it would leave for the Persian Gulf following the exercise to take over from the USS Boxer (LHD-4), which engaged ISIS positions in Iraq and was on its way home following its four-month deployment. However, it was decided instead to use the Wasp to engage targets in Libya, since there were no big aircraft carriers at hand, and they did not want to waste time and lose the surprise factor for the sake of diplomatic approvals from European countries. Furthermore, it is still undecided whether Europe, which has found itself in the midst of a wave of terrorist attacks, will be willing to open up another front against ISIS.

 

The operation that involves air strikes has been codenamed Odyssey Lightning, which represents direct continuity with Operation Odyssey Dawn of 2011. Incidentally, this serves as another illustration of the question about whether the U.S. government believes the intervention in Libya and the toppling of the Gaddafi regime was a mistake, which has been widely covered in the media, including in Russia. Recalling the role of the current Democratic presidential candidate and then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, it is easy to get sucked down into conspiracy theories and assume that the reasoning behind the current campaign is to cure the not so serene picture of Libya that has “come to freedom.” On the other hand, the threat of the further strengthening of ISIS is an objective problem, and combat against the terrorist group is a collective goal of the international community, which has stepped up its efforts to ensure the reconciliation of Libyan groups. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation has been moderately positive in its comments about the shellings.

 

Babak Taghvaee

 

Operation Odyssey Lightning followed operations Odyssey Resolve and Junction Serpent, which focused on intelligence (including for the governmental troops) and pinpointing critical targets. Based upon their outcomes and in pursuance of the request by the Presidency Council, which acts as Libya’s supreme executive authority, President Barack Obama sanctioned air strikes on ISIS positions in Sirte under the command of United States Air Forces Africa. The first air strikes were delivered early in the morning on Monday, August 1. AH-1W SuperCobra attack helicopters of the United States Marine Corps scored first, destroying an ISIS tank and two vehicles. In all, five air strikes were delivered on the first day, and at least two on Tuesday. In addition, AV-8B Harrier attack jets capable of vertical and short takeoff and landing were deployed from the amphibious assault ship. Details of the operation are scarce, but by all appearances, MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) have also been engaged in the operation from the Italian Naval Air Station Sigonella; however, it is unclear whether they are used for reconnaissance only or to deliver strikes as well. The Italian authorities have so far issued a statement that “use of the Sigonella base would be considered ‘if requested’.”

 

Al Arabia

Sirte

 

The list of destroyed targets includes one more tank, a few local self-made armoured vehicles, a rocket launcher and artillery positions. Given the limited size of forces engaged and significantly smaller scope of the Libyan front of the war against ISIS as against the Iraq–Syria front, the figures are hardly striking. Nevertheless, this assistance in crushing fortified points and armoured vehicles may prove sufficient to attain the ultimate objective of capturing Sirte. After this, the U.S. operation will likely be ceased; however, covert activities will definitely continue – the amphibious assault ship, with its MV-22B Osprey multi-mission convertiplanes, is an excellent base for the Special Forces.

 

Right now, the Pentagon estimates the possible period for the operation as “weeks, not months.” This timeframe looks quite realistic when it comes to capturing Sirte; however, you can be sure that peace and order will not return to Libya even months from now. That will likely take years, if not decades.

 

AFP

Forces loyal to Libya's UN-backed unity government gather around a tank in Sirte's centre as they advance to recapture the city from ISIS terrorist group on June 10, 2016

 

[1] For example, A Wasp has almost twice the displacement and troop- and air group carrying capacity of France’s well-known Mistral-class ships.

 

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