Foreign Affairs: Analysis
22 july 2016
On July 18, 2016, RIAC Director General Andrey Kortunov and Program Director Ivan Timofeev received Portugal’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Augusto Santos Silva. The RIAC editing team had an opportunity to talk with the Minister and get his opinion on Portugal’s economic recovery, migration issues and domestic stability.
On July 12, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favour of the Philippines and against China’s claims to priority rights in the South China Sea. Japan supported the position of the Philippines and has stated that the verdict was final and binding. This is in line with Tokyo’s policy, which regularly calls for a rules-based order in the Asia-Pacific Region and generally focuses on the regulatory aspects of international relations.
Author: Nikolay Murashkin.
22 july 2016
Today, the Korean peninsula is one of the most militarized places on the entire planet. It is here where the interests of large powers like the US, China, and Russia intersect. Yet, the prospects of a large military conflict are doubtful. Chances of an easy victory are too small for all potential parties. But if such a confrontation does take place, what would be the outcome of a second Korean war: a rapid blitzkrieg or a trench war massacre?
Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, many Russian experts believed that the events in Donbass were the first stage of the crisis and that destabilization, backed by our “western partners,” would spill across the border into Russia. The events of the past weeks indeed show that the chaos is moving closer to the Russian border, but the main risks stemming from socioeconomic, political and religious problems come mainly from the South.
Author: Sergey Rekeda.
The new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May passed her first test in parliament with flying colours. The topic of her first speech in Parliament on July 18, 2016 was anything but routine, approval of the programme to renew the British nuclear deterrent. The results, as expected, were in favour of the new prime minister. The full-scale funding of Successor was approved by 472 votes to 117.
Author: Alexander Ermakov.
The attempted military coup in the Turkish Republic once again forces the authorities to rethink their domestic and foreign policies. The pursued course has led to a country not having positive relations with any of its neighbours
Author: Ruslan Mamedov
21 july 2016
The results of NATO summit in Warsaw seen from a Western perspective – by Lukasz Kulesa, Research Director at the European Leadership Network.
The ongoing Ukrainian crisis have demonstrated that the use of hard power, no matter how gradual it could be, remains an option in the Black Sea region. The increasing naval activity of the stakeholders in the Black Sea basin has underlined the maritime dimension of the regional security. The military capabilities of Black Sea countries remain highly disparate, while recent developments have put an emphasis on NATO's and Washington's role in offsetting Russian military potential on the Black Sea stage. After having tackled Black Sea countries' defense expenditures, this paper analyzes the regional military balance in assessing and comparing the respective capabilities of the neighboring states.
Author: Igor Delanoë
One interesting aspect of the abortive coup in Turkey on July 16, 2016 is its impact on the Balkan countries. Faced with a serious crisis and on the threshold of constitutional change, the Turkish regime needs visible success to legitimize its new status. Such a success can be scored in the Balkans.
Author: Alexander Pivovarenko.
21 july 2016
Europe is still recovering from shock after the UK announced its Brexit goals. Joseph Dobbs, research fellow at ELN, comments on the possible implications for the EU.
21 july 2016
Increased military activity in the shared NATO-Russia area continues to pose a risk to civilian aviation, as well as increasing the risk of dangerous military to military incidents or accidents. Whilst the April 2016 NATO-Russia Council meeting made reference to modernising OSCE confidence and security building measures, no mention was made of a key mechanism previously operated by the Council itself: The Cooperative Airspace Initiative.
21 july 2016
This article reviews Updating the Constitution as the Completion of the Revolution, a Ukrainian research project. It identifies the problem areas of full-scale implementation of constitutional reforms proposed by the nation’s leaders, as well as potential ways and means for overcoming existing obstacles on the path to a successful transformation of the country, while taking into account Ukraine’s domestic policy-specific characteristics and geopolitical realities.
20 july 2016
This is a report covering the outcomes of the third meeting within the project “German-Russian International Affairs Dialogue” or GRID, implemented jointly by the Körber Foundation and Russian International Affairs Council. The session took place on April 15-16, 2016, in Berlin and gathered members of Russian and German business and expert communities, as well as government officials.
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