What trends will prevail in world politics in 2017?

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Foreign Affairs: Analysis

17 january 2017

Russia and China Respond to THAAD

Vasily Kashin PhD in Political Science, Senior Research Fellow at the Center of Strategic Problems of Northeast Asia, SCO and BRICS, University of Far Eastern Studies, RAS, RIAC expert

  12

On January 12, 2017, in Moscow Russia’s and China’s representatives agreed to take joint measures against the US missile-defense system in South Korea. Vasily Kashin shares what missile-defense system deployment on the Korean peninsula would mean for regional security and what countermeasures Moscow and Beijing may take.

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Day Figure

The proportion of foreign students studying in the U.S. and Russia is exactly the same – 5%

The proportion of foreign students studying in the U.S. and Russia is exactly the same – 5%

In the 2016/2017 academic year, the number of foreign students studying in the United States surpassed one million for the first time ever, and stands at 1,044,000 (a 7 per cent increase from the previous year). As of today, around 5% of all students in the United States come from abroad. Foreign students bring in $38 billion dollars to the U.S. economy every year. Despite the widespread belief that the Russian education system is in the midst of a crisis, foreigners also account for around 5 per cent of the country’s student population.

Author: Andrey Kortunov.

16 january 2017

Much Cry and Little Wool

Anastasia Borik Postgraduate student, MGIMO-University

  13

On January 9, Venezuela's National Assembly declared that President Nicolas Maduro had "abandoned his post”. With catchy headlines spreading quickly around the world, the recent vote resulted to be very limited, and the Venezuelan opposition did not manage to make a single step to push the Chavez’s followers away from power.

12 january 2017

A Difficult Peace: The UN and the Challenges of Modern Peacekeeping

Dmitry Borisov International Security expert, MA in International Affairs, Sciences Po Paris/MGIMO

  8

As the saying goes, peace, like war, must be waged, and the United Nations (UN) has been at the forefront of this battle for almost 70 years. From the UN Emergency Force (UNEF), the first ever peacekeeping mission set up in 1956 at the height of the Suez crisis, to the 2014 UN mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), UN peacekeeping (UNPK) continues to change and adapt to the constantly evolving dynamics of conflict. With at least 40 active conflicts around the world today according to the IISS Armed Conflict Database, the need for UN peacekeeping is as acute as ever, but the institution itself is in flux.

Day Figure

Transport Revolution of the 20’s Might Decrease World Vehicle Fleet by 90%. Winners and Losers

Transport Revolution of the 20’s Might Decrease World Vehicle Fleet by 90%. Winners and Losers

World transport system is about to face a revolution due to the introduction of self-driving cars. By the end of the 2020’s cars with no driver will be able to deprive traditional vehicles like cars, trucks, and busses, of competitive advantage or even push them out of the market in the developed countries. Along with the positive changes, «transport revolution» will rise two challenges for Russia: decrease of the oil price and increase of the road quality requirements.

Author: Andrey Kortunov.

Eurasian Chronicle

Global Issues Overweigh the Allies

Global Issues Overweigh the Allies

Vladimir Putin signed Executive Order approving the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. This wasn’t unexpected—the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov spoke about the preparation of the document in the spring. As the minister promised, the new concept, as prepared within his office, has turned out to be more global than its predecessor.

Author: Sergey Rekeda.

RIAC Reader

Anti-government extremist organizations in Syria

Anti-government extremist organizations in Syria

This longread describes the main anti-government groups – parties to the Syrian conflict (both currently existing and those which have already merged with other groups). The longread's authors attempted to trace their connections and the dynamics of their development. This is clearly a very ambitious task which goes beyond the current study. Yet the review covers the basic range of the main extremist groups participating in the Syrian crisis, thus enabling the reader to get as complete a picture of the current events as possible.

Captain Smollet's Column

Vikings Have Got a Plan

Vikings Have Got a Plan

Storting adopted the Long Term Defense Plan for the Norwegian Armed Forces. The Plan represents a historic increase in defence spending. Among major results, the Government has ordered new American antisubmarine aircraft.

Author: Alexander Yermakov.

11 january 2017

Ukraine: 25 Years of Missed Opportunities

Aleksandr Gushchin PhD in History, Associate Professor, Department of Post-Soviet Countries, Russian State University for the Humanities, RIAC expert

  25

2016 has in many respects been a milestone year for the region that is conventionally referred to as the post-Soviet space. It marks 25 years since the disintegration of the USSR and the creation of the new independent states. Almost everywhere in the region this quarter of a century has been extremely rich in socio-political changes. Ukraine occupies a special place even against this background as a unique example of large-scale transformations. Recent events in the country demonstrate that the very model of Ukrainian statehood is full of hidden traps and pitfalls, and that the Ukrainian elites have in many instances been unable to cope with the mission of ensuring the development of society and the government, which has resulted in a number of serious crises.

Beyond the Ocean Column

With Fear and Reproach

With Fear and Reproach

While Russia is popping champagne to celebrate Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, Latin America is taking safeguard measures in order to neutralize the potential political and economic risks from the billionaire’s presidency.

Author: Anastasia Borik.

Cybercolumn

The Balkans of the Internet

The Balkans of the Internet

The UK Parliament has just passed the Investigatory Powers Act 2016, also known as The Snooper’s Charter, on its third attempt; it is the most extreme surveillance initiative ever, giving government security services the power to hack and monitor information online traffic. This law brings about a drastic regulatory mechanism of Internet traffic monitoring into action (an innocent typo could lead to an administrative penalty). This way akin laws will soon appear in the countries of the Old World — that’s just a question of time, while the Internet segmentation has already started.

Author: Maria Gurova.

Opinion

Why the Elites Blame Post-truth Politics for Their Failures

Why the Elites Blame Post-truth Politics for Their Failures

The year 2016 has seen truly epic failures of mainstream politics and media, most significantly at the British EU referendum and the American election. In both cases seasoned analysts could not see beyond their Westminster or Capitol bubbles and foresee the outcomes. Enraged as they were, they chose to blame outside forces, often pointing the finger at Moscow, which supposedly has more influence on Western voters than home politicians.

Author: Alexander Yakovenko, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the United Kingdom

11 january 2017

2016 – Contours of the New Reality

Ivan Timofeev PhD in Political Science, Director of Programs at Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club.

  2

The year 2016 is important for understanding the changes in the international arena that started two years before. It was in 2016 that we began to see the new reality – the more or less clear contours of the future – take shape. Let’s analyze the contours of this new reality.

09 january 2017

Russia and the West: the New Normal

Ivan Timofeev PhD in Political Science, Director of Programs at Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club.

  6

This working paper unites the articles prepared within the framework of Russian International Affairs Council and «Valdai» discussion forum. The author shares his view on key trends in Russia-NATO and Russia-EU relations after the NATO Summit in Warsaw and new EU Global Strategy being announced. The paper evaluates the causes of crisis in the relations as well as suggests possible measures to solve the issues in the sphere of security.

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30 december 2016

Lord Commander. From "On the eve of 2037" series

Vladimir Kanareykin Host of the Internet Series “In the Cage”

  29

RIAC continues the series of original pieces on the future of Russia's foreign policy. In his second article Vladimir Kanareykin reflects on the unfortunate interview with Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2037, ponders on cyborg's rights, women's influence on international relations and miraculous changes in European migration map.

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