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Foreign Affairs: Analysis

26 november 2014

Why Are Oil Prices Falling, And Should Russia Rely on OPEC?

Elena Suponina PhD in Philosophy, Adviser to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, Asia and Middle East specialist, RIAC expert

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Will oil prices be able to recover after the collapse of recent months? This question will be answered by a session of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on 27 November 2014 in Vienna. Oil ministers from 12 countries will decide whether to cut output in the hope of raising oil prices or to leave things as they are. This expectation, however, seems exaggerated. OPEC today is not an organisation that can have the same decisive influence on the market that it had in the 1970s.

RIAC Digest

APEC summit, G20, Ukrainian crisis, Berlin wall, Kosovo, Cybersecurity, Globalization, Global Oulook for 2015

November 2014 has been full on international events. First, the world, especially European part of it, celebrated 25th anniversary of the fall of Berlin wall. Then world leaders met on several occasions: during the APEC summit, then shared coffee in sunny Brisbane in Australia on G20. The headlines are still bursting with interpretations and speculations on what has been achieved and what opportunities have been thrown away. This digest features some essays and opinions on these recent events. And not only. Find here: APEC, G20 economies and green management, Ukrainian crisis, the fall of the Berlin wall, Kosovar stalemate, building cyber confidence, new perception of globalization, a new wave of emerging countries and Global Outlook for 2015.

25 november 2014

Sunrise Expected Late: How Long Japan Will Be in Recession?

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Notwithstanding a quite ambitious economic plan of reforms initiated by the Prime Minister Shinzō Abe Sind known as “Abenomics”, mid-November 2014 has shown that Japanese economy is not getting better. The Prime Minister Abe has turned to extreme measures – dissolution of the parliament with the new elections set for December 2014. Once ranking among the top three most innovative and strongest economies, Japan has now been stagnating for several years. What underlies this recession? How long will it stay like this? What public measures can be anticipated in order to deal with the stagnation? RIAC has asked Irina Timonina to give her expert point of view. Irina Timonina is a Dr.in and the Dean of International relations department at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, professor of Institute of Asian and African States of Moscow State University (MSU).

24 november 2014

Russian-Vietnamese Strategic Partnership: between the United States and China

Anton Tsvetov Media and Government Relations Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council

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Although Moscow's official documents and statements consider Hanoi a key Asian partner, the reality of the bilateral relationship after the breakup of the USSR has actually been inertia, thereby opening opportunities for the U.S.A. and the People's Republic of China (PRC) to gain a strong foothold in Vietnam. With Russia once again intent on achieving a meaningful presence in Asia-Pacific, it appears appropriate to analyze the role of a strategic partnership with Vietnam within Russia’s regional strategy and a rapprochement as such in relation to Chinese and American interests.

21 november 2014

Russia and Ukraine: A Corridor of Opportunities

Alexander Gushchin PhD in History, Associate Professor, Department of Post-Soviet Countries, Russian State University for the Humanities, RIAC expert

Sergei Markedonov PhD in History, PhD in History, Associate Professor, Department of Regional Studies and Foreign Policy, Russian State University for the Humanities, RIAC Expert

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The Ukrainian crisis presents the most serious and dangerous challenge to European security since the collapse of Yugoslavia and the series of ethnic conflicts it gave rise to in the Balkans. What we are witnessing is the combination of the largest confrontation between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War, growing animosities between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea and south-eastern Ukraine, and the transformation of the Ukrainian government project into something closer to hard line national statehood. Ukraine is the nexus where the interests of such key players as Russia, the European Union and the United States have clashed, making this purely domestic crisis turn into a regional and even global issue. There are several possible scenarios of how the crisis might unfold: military confrontation, “deep freeze” (or maintaining the status quo), and decentralization and compromise.

21 november 2014

CIS Heads of Government to Discuss Ukraine?

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The agenda of the CIS Heads of Government Summit that will take place on 21 November 2014 features a wide range of economic, military-technical and humanitarian issues and the creation of the CIS Free Trade Zone. The Ukrainian crisis is not on the agenda, but it may be discussed on the fringes. How will the meeting proceed? What are the main items on the agenda? Here to comment is Oleg Alexandrov, Associate Professor at the MGIMO Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy of Russia and Yulia Yakusheva, Vice Director general, Head of Analytical department at the Moscow State University.

Opinion

President Putin, the Tsar of international relations?

President Putin, the Tsar of international relations?

Authors: Ernesto Gallo and Giovanni Biava.

According to Time, Pope Francis was the ‘person of the year’ in 2013, and with good reasons. Who else has given answers, symbolic and material, to the West’s worst economic crisis since the Second World War? Another magazine, Forbes, chose Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, as ‘the world’s most powerful man’ in 2013 (and in 2014), when Putin was often feared yet recognised as a smart statesman by the American and Western media and press. Russia had just scored a crucial diplomatic victory on the Syrian question.

20 november 2014

Arctic Shipping: A Route to Russian-American Cooperation

Henry Huntington Senior Officer, International Arctic The Pew Charitable Trusts

Roger Rufe Vice Admiral, United States Coast Guard (retired)

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Russia and the United States have a shared interest in keeping shipping routes open while also reducing uncertainty and risk. Arctic waters are no place for ill-equipped vessels that pose a hazard to themselves and others and may drain the search-and-rescue capabilities of Arctic coastal states. At the same time, Arctic routes promise economic efficiencies and opportunities, consistent with the principle of freedom of navigation on the seas.

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