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Foreign Affairs: Analysis

08 february 2016

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Minsk Process as a Path to Settlement

Vladimir Evseev PhD in Engineering, Senior Research Fellow, Head of the CIS Institute Department of Eurasian Integration and SCO Development

  4

Amidst the use of heavy weapons against civilians and others, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh continues to deteriorate. The current status quo in the conflict zone is no longer stable, making the implementation of even the updated Madrid Principles irrelevant. Under such circumstances, it makes sense to conclude an agreement between the warring parties overseen by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group on the pullout of heavy and light weapons from actual line of contact, in a similar way to the Minsk II package of measures.

RIAC Digest

Iran before and after the Nuclear Deal

Iran before and after the Nuclear Deal

After ten years of arduous negotiations the Nuclear Deal with Iran is finally signed in Vienna on 14 July 2015. The nuclear threat is temporarily curbed, sanctions are lifted - Iran reemerged as a new regional power center in the Middle East. Is Iran Nuclear Deal a Breakthrough or a Historic Mistake? This RIAC digest aims to cover the comprehensive diversity of materials on the topic and provide the general overview as well as detailed analysis of Iran's new role in the regional and global balance of power.

05 february 2016

Syria Talks: Fear and Loathing in Geneva

Yuri Barmin Analyst on Russia and its Middle East policy, MPhil International Relations, University of Cambridge, RIAC expert

  16

After a week of confusion and failed attempts to bring warring sides to the table, Syria peace talks that had begun in Geneva on January 25 2016 were suspended till late February on Thursday. This may be a much-needed break that may help prevent the wider negotiating process from being derailed. In other words the battle is lost but the war is not over.

Discussion: 1

RIAC Reader

Islamic Extremism in Southeast Asia

Islamic Extremism in Southeast Asia

The recent wave of international terrorism, which has swept across the world over the last couple of years, is a strong reminder that no region, not even remotest corner of our planet is secure. January 2016 has seen deadly blasts in different cities - from Turkey to Indonesia - taking too many innocent lives. Following terrorist attacks in Jakarta, RIAC gives an overview of extremist organizations present in the ASEAN countires.

05 february 2016

The Migration Collapse in Austria Threatens to Hit the Schengen Area

Vadim Trukhachev Professor of Foreign Regions Chair at Russian State University for Humanities, Expert on history of CEE countries

  7

Austria is generally considered to be one of the most peaceful countries in Europe. But the problem of Muslim migrants has hit the Austrian people. On New Year’s Eve, migrants from the Middle East and North Africa were responsible for an unprecedented wave of violence in the country. As a result, the Austrian government is prepared to rip up one of the foundations of the European Union – the Schengen Agreement.

RIAC Reader

Outlining 2016

Outlining 2016

RIAC ‪forecasts‬ on key global challenges: World Order, Terrorism, Arms, Russia - West relations, Post-Soviet Space, Middle East, Europe, Central Asia, China, Arctic, Latin America.

04 february 2016

China 100 Years Down the Line: Before and After the War of Asia

Artyom Lukin PhD in Political Science, Deputy Director of the School for Regional and International Studies, Far Eastern Federal University

Andrey Gubin PhD in Political Science, Director of Scientific Programs of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies at Regional Centre for Asia-Pacific Studies, Assistant Professor at the International Relations Department of Far Eastern Federal University, RIAC Expert

  6

What will “post-war” China look like at the turn of the 22nd century? We can with a certain amount of confidence say that the “Celestial Empire” will retain its place on the global political map, unlike many states that exist today but will sink into oblivion. The postmodern era will finally be ushered in. But it will be a specifically Chinese style of postmodernism, one that may be far removed from its western antecedents.

04 february 2016

Schengen: The Point of No Return is Getting Closer and Closer

Viktor Katona Oil Supply Specialist at MOL Group, RIAC expert

  7

Contrary to the expectations of Euro-optimists, the 30-year anniversary of the Schengen Agreement (signed on June 14, 1985) was not marked by a celebration of the creation of a unique free movement zone. The celebratory mood was overshadowed by the largest refugee crisis of the 21st century in the European Union. Until recently, disputes arising between states within the European Union boiled down to how to build a pan-European policy, with refugees entering Germany, France and other western countries. Now the crisis is threatening the Schengen Area as a whole.

03 february 2016

Too Old to Die Young

Carlyle A. Thayer Emeritus Professor, The University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra

  5

The Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) held its 12th National Congress in Hanoi from 20-28 January. The foreign news media devoted the lion’s share of attention on the contestation for the post of VCP Secretary General between incumbent Nguyen Phu Trong and challenger Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. The real issue was not about ideological differences but about collective leadership by the party over the government apparatus and Cabinet.

03 february 2016

Iran Is Making a Comeback

Vladimir Sazhin PhD in History, RAS Institute of Oriental Studies

  7

Less than a month has passed since the provisions of the Iran nuclear deal were put in force and the sanctions against the country lifted. And Hassan Rouhani has wasted no time in developing Iran’s ties with the outside world, first welcoming the President of the People’s Republic of China on his official visit to Tehran and then setting off on a European tour himself. Now free from the burden of the sanctions, Iran, whose economy almost collapsed entirely in 2012, does not want to lose any more time and is determined to expand cooperation with its international partners.

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