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Foreign Affairs: Analysis

03 august 2015

Confucius Missed this One — The Faltering Chinese Stock Market

Stanislav Tkachenko Doctor of Economics, Ph.D. in History, School of International Relations, Saint Petersburg State University

  1

The current instability of the Chinese Stock Market is likely to become the leading headline in finance this year. The “Chinese economic miracle” has continued unabated for some 35 years now, and the stable, double-digit economic growth had to come to an end at some point. And while the slowdown is now in full swing, its 7.4 per cent GDP growth rate in 2014 is the stuff that dreams are made of for the remaining G20 countries.

The Truth about Srebrenica: From Debate to Geopolitics

The Truth about Srebrenica: From Debate to Geopolitics

Author: Daria Basova, student in the World Politics Department, MGIMO University, RIAC intern

On July 7, Great Britain submitted a draft resolution on Srebrenica to the UN Security Council, seeking to have the July 1995 killing of Muslim population by the Serb army commanded by Ratko Mladic qualified as genocide. Russia vetoed the resolution, a move welcomed in Serbia and the Republic Srpska and the utterly opposite response in the West, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The resultant heated wrangling seems a manifestation of Russia-West geopolitical confrontation in the Balkans – this time in the form of a debate aimed to win the hearts and minds of the region’s population. What are the sides’ motives and what long-term consequences are in store for Russia?

03 august 2015

Ukraine is Intensifying the Transnistria Conflict

Igor Istomin PhD in Political Science, Senior Lecturer, Department of Applied International Analysis, MGIMO University

  1

The deteriorating relationship between Moscow and Kiev may be having profound regional consequences, with the Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (TMR) becoming a clear victim due to the abruptly worsening international environment. The Russian public has focused on the military aspects, although the problem is multidimensional and armed confrontation breaking out in Transnistria is unlikely.

RIAC Digest

The Balkans - At the Glance

The Balkans - At the Glance

Once again, restless Balkans is in the center of the world politics. While all eyes are on the Greek crisis, some less interesting, but nonetheless significant events are happening in the other countries of the Balkans. This Digest aims to present the current attention-grabbing articles on this region - the region that never stands still.

31 july 2015

Africa: Obama’s Last Chance

Anastasia Tolstukhina Diplomatic Academy, RIAC Expert

  1

During Barack Obama’s first presidential term, Africa was not among the U.S. foreign policy priorities. In spite of his African roots, America’s first black president, contrary to expectations, focused attention not on Africa but on tackling such problems as the U.S. economy, Iraq, Afghanistan and so on. Yet, during his second term, Obama has tried to strengthen Washington’s engagement with African affairs and to put Africa back on the U.S. foreign policy agenda.

RIAC Digest

Researching BRICS

Hardly ever has the BRICS format been so hot as it is now due to certain geopolitical changes taking place in the world. Tensions between Russia and West have stimulated additional interest for the block whose development perspectives remain ambiguous even for the most experienced and profound experts. We would like to provide the digest's readers with the issues that have been raised on the threshold of the BRICS Summit and dealing with political and economic, social and cultural spheres of collaboration.

Digest and special projects

30 july 2015

Hypersonic Warheads for Ballistic Missiles

Maxim Shepovalenko Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies

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In the first half of 2015, international media outlets reported the successful Russian and Chinese testing of hypersonic flight vehicles, i.e. gliding hypersonic warheads carried by ballistic missiles. The Russian Project 4202 and the Chinese project WU-14 point to a new spiral in the nuclear and nonnuclear technologies race.

29 july 2015

The Obsolete Legacy of Antarctica

Alexei Fenenko PhD in History, RAS Institute of International Security Problems

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The Antarctic has long been of marginal importance for Russia, although Antarctic issues are closely linked to higher-profile ones involving the Arctic. Moscow is adamant about preserving the revised system for sectoral division of the Arctic and maintaining its exclusive rights to the Northern Sea Route, while also rejecting the mechanical application of the principles of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to the Arctic Ocean. At the same time, Russia supports the Antarctic’s international status, the Southern Ocean as a neutral zone, and a ban on economic activity on the southernmost continent. As a result, diverging approaches to both the Arctic and Antarctic complicate Russian diplomacy.

29 july 2015

Are We about to Witness the Biggest Oil Crisis since 1986?

Yuri Barmin Analyst on Russia and its Middle East policy, MPhil International Relations, University of Cambridge, RIAC expert

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Recent reports released by analysts suggest that the situation in the oil market, already highly volatile, could get much worse in the near future. Morgan Stanley in particular argues that the oil crash that we are witnessing now may be even worse than the oil glut of 1986. In December that year oil prices fell from $23.29 to $9.85 sparking chaos in the markets throughout the globe. Some even argue that the 1986 oil crisis predetermined the collapse of the Soviet Union.

28 july 2015

Turkey: The Missing Link?

Igor Delanoë Ph.D. in History, Research affiliate at the Ukrainian Research Institute (Harvard University) and the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University, Istanbul

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The events that took place on the border between Turkey and Syria in late July 2015 prompted Ankara to join the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS). Today, Turkey is reaping the fruits of its anti-Damascus, pro-Islamist policy. However, bombing ISIS positions will not weaken the organization, nor will opening U.S. air bases on Turkish territory. The only thing that will do this is closing the border between Turkey and Syria, which will deprive it of its main source of logistical, military and financial support.

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