Griffin and Viper Chase Indian Jackpot

The long-awaited signing of the bumper contract on the delivery of French Rafale fighter aircraft to India took place in late September, 2016. However, the contract will not cover all the needs of the Indian Air Force. As a result, a new race for what could be the biggest military aviation contract for some years to come, most likely between the United States and… Sweden is slowly unfolding.   

Strange as it may sound, the contract for the purchase of the Rafale fighters has proved to be an unsuccessful, albeit rather logical, result of the tender for Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA). The history of the MMRCA can be traced back to the 1999 Kargil War, where the French single-engine Mirage 2000 jet fighters – pretty much the only aircraft the Indian Air Force possessed – excelled, as they were capable of destroying small targets with high-precision weapons. As a result of the conflict, the decision was made to purchase a large consignment of French Rafale aircraft to replace the outdated MiG-27 and Jaguar fighter-bombers, which were to be decommissioned.     

But then politics got in the way – namely, domestic politics. After all, how could you give the go-ahead to buy over one hundred fighters to the Indian military, which is famed for its unselfishness, without even offering a competitive tender? So the decision was taken to organize a tender for the contract, although the requirements for participation were made as liberal as possible, meaning that just about every manufacturer of fourth-generation fighter aircraft was eligible to submit an offer (foreign policy also played a role here, as it is believed that the Americans were the ones who had the special conditions included). Events unfolded rather slowly: requests for information were only sent out in 2005, and commercial proposals were called for in 2007. The plan was to purchase 126 aircraft with an option on 74 more. The tender documentation also stipulated that most of the fighters had to be assembled in India. The contract amount was estimated at between $10 and 11 billion.          

Rafale

Production of the aircraft that the Indian side had originally intended to purchase, the Mirage 2000,had been discontinued by the time the contract came around, replaced by the more expensive twin-engine Rafale. The French model was joined in the competitive tender by the U.S. LockheedMartinF-16IN SuperViperand the BoeingF/A-18 SuperHornet, the European Eurofighter Typhoon, the Swedish Saab Gripen NG and the Russian MiG-35. The final was contested by the French Rafale and the joint British-German-Italian Eurofighter. It is generally believed that the decision to award the contract to the French side was based on India’s political course India to diversify its defence supplies (which was a blow to the Russian proposal) and the desire to get the best technology (which is why the Americans were eliminated at an early stage).       

However, what followed was far from rosy. When the final negotiations on the details of the contract began, it became clear that the French proposal was in fact more expensive than the Indian side had originally intended to spend (by at least two times), while the French were not happy with India’s demands regarding the organization of a production line, specifically, the guarantee on the aircraft assembled in India. Difficult negotiations ensued. The drawn-out process continued until April 2015, when an agreement was made on the purchase of just 36 fighter jets, with the aircraft to be assembled outside of India. In September 2016, further negotiations resulted in the price of the contract being set at €7.878 billion for 28 single-seat fighter jets and 8 two-seater jets, as well as the necessary parts, equipment, weaponry and pilot training. [1]

While the Indian Air Force may have survived the torture of the Rafale negotiations, there is still a serious shortage of jet fighters. In fact, the problem has only got worse over the past ten years, and 36 aircraft is practically nothing. According to the Indian Armed Forces, a minimum of 45 air squadrons is required to ensure reliable defence capabilities. At the present time, India has just 33 squadrons, and this number continues to decline.   

The Indian Air Force supplements it fleet with its own HAL Tejas light combat aircraft and Russian Su-30MKI heavy fighters, which it assembles domestically under license. However, the Tejas is still raw, is produced at a very slow pace and will only be ready in terms of the required features some time in the 2020s at the earliest. The Su-30MKI is, of course, a thing of beauty, but production of the aircraft is soon to be discontinued. India has already purchased an eye watering number of these machines – 272 in total – and it makes little sense to buffer its heavy fighter fleet, as they are expensive to operate and are unsuitable for many tasks. A more lightweight fighter is required to replace the MiG-21, MiG-27 and Jaguar. The Indian Air Force has already stated that it will not be buying any more Rafale fighters. On October 8, news came out that the tender for the purchase of a large number of jet fighters to be assembled in India had been reopened. Reports have appeared that requests for information have been sent out. have appeared that requests for information have been sent out. And one of the conditions stated in the MMRCA 2.0 is of particular note, namely, that it must be single-jet fighter.

saabgroup.com

Saab "Gripen" NG

This automatically reduces the number of real candidates to two fighters, both of which have already taken part in the MMRCA – the U.S. Lockheed Martin F-16IN Super Viper [2] and the Swedish Saab Gripen NG.[3] Both sides increased their presence on the Indian market over the summer, announcing on a regular basis that they were ready to organize production in the country.

The Swedes have the advantage of already working with the Indian side, specifically, on the Tejas fighters: the life cycle cost is potentially lower and it can introduce of advanced technologies, such as its hi-tech Meteor air-to-air rockets. The United States, however, can trump all this with the might of its military-industrial complex (which would allow them to deliver a large number of vehicle sets for assembly), its economic superiority (favourable payment terms, reciprocal investment) and its technology, which the Indian side has long wanted to make use of, if, of course, the situation with regard to secrecy is not as strict.    

Lockheed Martin

Lockheed Martin F-16IN

This time, half measures will not cut it – if the Indian Air Force does not choose a supplier of the 100 or so jets it needs soon, then it will be severely lacking in terms of numbers and power by the 2020s. At the same time, China continues to increase its power – not only does it produce a large number of fourth-generation fighters, but it is also working on the production of fifth-generation aircraft.  

In many ways, the decision will come down to political preferences once again. And, once again, it will be between American and non-American aircraft. It looks like Russia will not take part in the tender – if the information is correct about the Indian side wanting a single-engine fighter, then Russia has simply nothing to propose there (even if Russia were “invited” to take part for political reasons, ignoring the objective of diversification). However, there is no reason for the Russian side to upset: instead of taking part in very specific tenders for Indian military contracts, it focuses on concluding, on a non-competitive basis, equally lucrative contracts on matters where the Indian side has nowhere else to turn. For example, the contract to upgrade the Su-30MKI worth around $8 billion, and the development of a fifth-generation fighter based on the Sukhoi PAK FA for the Indian Air Force as part of the FGFA programme. The latter is in the initial stages, but it will no doubt amount to tens of billions of dollars.       

1.     These additional points are often erroneously excluded, as observers often, and without thinking, divide the total contract value by the number of planes to arrive at a fairly ephemeral cost “per unit.” This is a flawed method, as it is these extras that usually make up the lion’s share of buyer’s costs. In this instance, the cost of the aircraft amounted to €3.2–3.3 billion, according to various estimates.

 

2.     The official name of the F-16 in the United States is the Fighting Falcon, although it is has acquired the nickname “Viper,” which has become so popular that even the manufacturer has started using it in its promotional materials.

 

3.     “Griffin”