Russia-2022: Macro Stability to Be Prioritized
... pressures the CBR is likely to start lowering its key rate in the second half of next year, with the macroeconomic fundamentals likely allowing some fiscal expansion to support growth. Overall, there is unlikely to be a significant economic policy shift in Russia away from prioritizing reserve accumulation and macroeconomic stability. In the second half of 2021 the Russian government ruled to raise the threshold for the National Wellbeing Fund from 7% of GDP to 10% of GDP – thus in effect raising the scope for accumulating reserves vs spending them. However,...