... coincided with a highly acute political crisis in relations between Moscow and Washington.
Greg Thielmann:
Are We Approaching the End of the Arms Control Era?
The next link in the chain of disintegration is the bilateral START III Treaty. Mutual accusations about the failure to abide by this treaty – at least in terms of its spirit if not the letter – are becoming increasingly loud both in Russia and the US as are statements that the national security of either side will be guaranteed even if ...
...
Alexander Yermakov:
Brave New World Without INF Treaty
First, even the absence of formal obligations under the INF Treaty or the New START Treaty cannot stop the sides from honoring them de facto. The analysis of the Russian and American nuclear modernization ... ... Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Withdrawal from the INF Treaty and, more importantly, refusal to extend the New START Treaty would create major risks for the global non-proliferation regime, and the next NPT Review ...
... short-range missiles were primarily a threat due to their ability to carry nuclear warheads. Even with a range of several thousand kilometres they would ensure guaranteed destruction of their targets with warheads yielding hundreds of kilotons. Today,... ... demonstrate and explain the specifics of their own weapons systems and accept the opponent’s explanations.
The prospects of the New START being prolonged are moot, and the balance may shift either way. In fact, if the INF Treaty is cancelled altogether, ...
... possible that both sides may uncover some new options for arms control, with the aim of upgrading and updating the principles of New START and the INF Treaty
The articles below were informed by a roundtable discussion in London in October 2018 between the ... ... reinforce perceptions on both sides that the other is an unreliable partner. Yet at the same time, the absence of mutual accusations over alleged INF violations – since the treaty would no longer exist – may lead to a healthier bilateral environment,...
... that leaders today recognize their responsibility to work together to prevent nuclear catastrophe and provide a foundation for other practical steps to reduce the risk of nuclear use—including resolving the current problems with INF and extending the New START Treaty through 2026.
There remains the challenge of rebuilding trust between the United States, NATO and Russia so that it will again be possible to address major security challenges in the Euro-Atlantic region. This was done throughout the ...
... judgment about Russian non-compliance, but not necessarily Washington’s response. Divergent European and American approaches to the INF crisis would be highly damaging.
Even more troubling would be the likely consequences of the Treaty’s demise.
The New START Agreement, which limits US and Russian strategic nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles, expires in 2021 and the INF crisis increases the risk that it will not be extended or replaced. Collapse of INF would spur the development of new nuclear ...
... United States and Russia, as well as by a large group of states that have the necessary capabilities. Many of those countries are in high-risk regions where military tensions are already elevated.
Dmitry Stefanovich:
Post-Helsinki Opportunities for New START and the INF Treaty?
I would venture to suggest that, following the withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the U.S. Administration will waste no time in making the decision not to prolong the New START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) signed ...
... maneuver—and they hope that the White House has not made a final decision yet. But the INF Treaty has been dying a slow death for several years, and the chances of preserving it dwindle every month.
Dmitry Stefanovich:
Post-Helsinki Opportunities for New START and the INF Treaty?
Neither Russia nor the United States has displayed much political will or persistence in seeking a compromise or taking unilateral steps to rescue the treaty. It is clear that neither side has considered saving the INF treaty—not ...
... a military conflict. We must work together, including our militaries, to increase transparency and trust.
Fourth, work jointly to preserve and extend existing agreements and treaties, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and New START Treaty.
These two agreements are crucial to sustaining transparency and predictability. In the absence of these agreements, there will be no regulations on nuclear forces, exacerbating today’s already high risks.
Fifth, continue consultations ...
... scholars, diplomats and military experts on both sides of the Atlantic are desperately searching ways to preserve this regime. Two specific tasks are regarded as the most urgent — to salvage the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and to extend the New Start Treaty beyond its expiration date in early 2021. The first task appears to be more difficult, close to impossible now — both sides publicly accuse each other of violating INF, and influential political groups on both sides question the value ...
