...
Global warming could endanger vulnerable ecosystems (cedar forests in Lebanon and Syria, reed marshes of Iraq), and change the geographical distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitos, which will create large-scale problems for the states in the Middle East that do not have effective health systems.
2. Post-Oil World
By 2050 a post-oil world order will be in place. Although the physical exhaustion of hydrocarbons is not expected in the next thirty years, alternative energy sources will become available, affordable, and much more popular than today. The two ...
RIAC Working Paper № 48/2019
RIAC Working Paper № 48/2019
This working paper was prepared by the Russian International Affairs Council as part of the RIAC’s project on «Conflicts in the Middle East: Tools and Strategies for Settlement». This paper is devoted to analyzing the situation in the oil and gas market in Iraq and Syria, as well as the energy policy of Russia in the Arab Mashreq region. The authors also analyze Iraq’s oil prospects in the post-war period under sanctions against Iran. Special attention is paid to the Kurdish factor ...
... stabilise a crucial region for world trade, resources, and security
After years of furious and brutal fighting, Syria and Iraq seem now to be slowly stabilising. A peace process in Syria is gaining momentum, and ISIS’ defeat is getting closer. However, Middle Eastern problems remain massive. Among them we have selected three main issues, which are also interconnected: the hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Sunni and Shia; the stabilisation of oil prices, which are now rising but remain — as always — difficult to predict; the presence of terrorism, which, despite ISIS’ decline, is still a problem well beyond the region.
Starting with the geopolitics, there clearly are two main contenders....
... document contained no arms trade-related provisions. The crowning achievement of Russia–Qatar diplomacy in 2016 was announced in December, 2016, when QIA together with Glencore purchased a 19.5% stake in Rosneft, Russia’s largest state-owned oil company.
However, pronouncing Russia and Qatar the homecoming couple of 2016 would be farfetched. It appears that the Syrian crisis is one of the key drivers behind the two countries’ recent “rapprochement,” but their interests in the Middle East remain polar. For Doha engaging Russia is a political necessity resulting from the latter’s growing clout in the Middle East and especially in Damascus. For Moscow, with its newfound penchant for geopolitics, a better relationship with ...
... with Iran precludes cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Even so, with investment programmes shrinking in all the oil exporting countries and with the existing strategic contradictions between Saudi Arabia and Russia, Moscow will find working with the two Middle Eastern countries at once to be an extremely difficult balancing act.
The oil-and-gas cooperation plans recently announced by Russia and Saudi Arabia may sound like part of a rapprochement trend. Yet one should not expect too much from this rhetoric. It is possible that, rather than reflecting the two countries' enthusiasm ...
... government. In fact, OPEC oil producers would be forgiven for expecting that Russian President Vladimir Putin would use this as an excuse after any non-compliance with a coordinated output cut is detected.
REUTERS/Abdalrhman Ismail
Maxim Suchkov:
The Middle East between the U.S. and Russia:
Potential Traps for Moscow
Even if Russia decided to keep its word, and its oil companies listened to government orders, the consequences are likely to be limited because of the barriers to OPEC coordinating its actions internally. As discussed above, OPEC has been ineffective for most of its existence, and its prospects for ...
... that seemingly binds together these two otherwise unconnected threats. According to Jonathan Freedland, "[IS] feeds Ebola, and Ebola feeds [IS] — and our fear feeds them both."
The fight against IS has combined into one its military, oil, economic and financial components. It has already become a familiar argument that airstrikes alone cannot defeat these fanatic hangmen. And as they are suffering heavy losses, if they mix among the local population, most of the casualties of the ...
... hydrocarbon deposits account for almost 54 percent of proved oil reserves and 40 percent of proved natural gas reserves (the author’s estimate, based on the
Annual Statistical Bulletin
, OPEC, 2013, PP. 21, 22).
The region is an uncontested leader in oil production. The Middle East produces almost 33.1 percent of the global total, together with the North African Arab countries (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, and Sudan and South Sudan), this approximates 40 percent (37.7%) (the author’s estimate, based on the
Annual Statistical ...
... of those countries that have traditionally been Soviet partners, such as Algeria, Libya, Syria and Iraq, and also to enter the markets of the Arab monarchies in the Persian Gulf.
Arab Countries as Markets for Russian Goods
Photo: RIA Novosti
Leading Oil-Exporting Countries in Africa and
the Middle East
In 2011, Russian-Arab trade increased 38 percent on 2010 levels to reach $
14 billion
, higher than before the economic crisis. Trade turnover is expected to continue to grow in 2012, albeit at a slower pace. However, despite obvious progress,...
