Apparently, the most rational course of action for the United States may be a "hit and see" approach
The concentration of US military forces in the Persian Gulf has sparked discussions about the possibility of a new military operation against Iran. International relations are difficult to predict. However, the development of the situation can be viewed as a set of alternative scenarios. A military operation is one of them.
Zamir Ahmed Awan:
Attack on Iran: A Gamble that U.S. Cannot Afford ...
... realities in both the United States and Israel are acting as powerful brakes on military adventurism.
In the U.S., President Donald Trump faces intense scrutiny ahead of the November mid-term elections. Public appetite for another overseas conflict is ... ... over governance and security priorities, Netanyahu’s room for maneuver is limited. A prolonged or inconclusive conflict with Iran could prove politically disastrous rather than advantageous.
History shows that leaders under domestic pressure sometimes ...
The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure mark a notable recalibration of Washington’s Middle East policy
The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure mark a notable recalibration of Washington’s Middle East policy. In recent years, the United ...
... United States in this direction. A lot will depend on who exactly will handle the Trump Iranian portfolio—with hawks like Mike Pompeo or Robert Greenway in charge the risks on a large-scale regional conflict will go higher. In theory, one could imagine Donald Trump entering a direct negotiation with Iran in order to reach a comprehensive agreement with the Islamic Republic, but right now such a scenario looks very unlikely.
It would be logical to predict that under such circumstances the alliance between Moscow and Tehran will continue to deepen ...
... elections is of greater importance. A victory for Kamala Harris will not lead to a return to the parameters of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the 2015 “Iran nuclear deal”, but is unlikely to lead to a sharp escalation of pressure on Iran. A victory for Donald Trump, however, could result in increased pressure on Iran, given the tougher position of the Republicans on relations with the Islamic Republic. For Tehran, a victory for the Republican candidate threatens a new wave of sanctions.
Ivan Timofeev: ...
The impeachment process of US President Donald Trump and the US role in the MENA region would determine the future of conflicts in many countries starting from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and the future government in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, Turkey and Iran
“When I thought I had already reached the bottom,
they knocked from below.”
— Stanislaw Jerzy Lec
This quote of the polish aphorist and poet of the 20
th
century, Stanislaw Jerzy Lec, serves as a perfect epigraph to this in-depth 2020 forecast ...
... 7488th meeting on July 20, 2015
, the deal was drafted with the active contribution of the European Union, as well as the P5 countries. It had special significance for Brussels, considering the EU’s commitment to multilateral diplomacy.
US President Donald Trump announced his decision to withdraw from the
Iranian nuclear deal on May 8, 2018
Frequently Asked Questions Regarding the Re-Imposition of Sanctions Pursuant to the May 8, 2018 National Security Presidential Memorandum Relating to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). May 8, 2018, and ...
An increased American pressure on Iran makes Tehran even more dependent on major US geopolitical adversaries — China and Russia
The Trump administration has decided to designate
Iran's Islamic Revolution’s Guard Corps (IRGC)
as a foreign terrorist organization. It is the first ...
... reformist president’s political opponents are trying to take advantage of his failures, which makes stabilizing Iran an even more difficult task.
The Economy after Trump
Ivan Timofeev:
A Pyrrhic Victory: the History of the Sanctions War Against Iran
Donald Trump had become a major factor for the Iranian economy even before he made the decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Following Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential elections, most major western companies ...
... decision will be difficult to stop, as the U.S. President does not back down from his word
The recent decision of President Donald Trump with regard to Jerusalem is just one more surprise in the endless series of surprises in the Middle East. Numerous ... ... difficult times of its own, appears to be in a particularly difficult situation.
Trump’s decision strengthens the positions of Iran, the exact opposite to what the President of the United States wants. We are reminded of 2003, when the United States’ ...
